This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Games
The Broncos had to have everything fall perfectly for them in the second half of last week's miraculous comeback at home. That was probably a good result since taking the Falcons -4 might be a point or two higher had they lost. Atlanta isn't as bad as a team as their 2-6 record indicates as three of their losses were for a combined six points, including two one-point losses. Besides last week's lucky comeback, their only other two wins are against the Jets and Patriots, two teams who might be bottom-5 teams. This is the game wager I like best this week. I also like sprinkling in a smaller bet on the Falcons -13.5 (+290)
I also like the Ravens +1 at the Colts. This was a line that opened up in most places as Baltimore -3 and has moved in their favor for no obvious reason. It's basically like four points for free. I think the Ravens will exploit Philip Rivers' inability to throw downfield and they have been excellent against the run this season. This should also be a defensive battle between these two teams so I don't mind running a parlay with the Ravens and under 48 points.
I'm fascinated with the money lines for the underdogs this week. I know they've been terrible but it doesn't seem like Dallas should be +14.5 at home. I think the Steelers will be in for a less than stellar effort coming off two road wins (and having to play a third road game in a row) and they might think they just have to show up to get the win. Dallas didn't cover last week but the fumble and return for a touchdown could have been easily overturned. The Cowboys defense played much better last week which leads me to how I'd play this. I think you should put a little on Dallas +700 (they are a professional football team with great offensive weapons outside of quarterback) and if you want less of a risk, taking the Cowboys +4.5 (+360) still offers nice odds.
Finally, the line for the Patriots/Jets started at 7.5 in favor of the Patriots and has moved to 8.5. Do we know for sure that New England is even a league-average football team? If that answer is "no", this game should be more competitive than anticipated. Cam Newton still doesn't have any receivers and the Jets are home, although I'm convinced that doesn't mean as much this season. Take the Jets +310 in this one.
Player Props
Willie Snead Under 25.5 receiving yards - Snead went off last week with a 7-5-106 line, easily his best performance of the season. He hadn't had more than four targets in any game before last week and he's had games of 0, 20, and 4 receiving yards this season. This is a tough Colts' defense who shouldn't give Lamar Jackson a lot of time to throw. If it smells like a trap, it probably is, go under here.
John Brown Over 36.5 receiving yards - This is the prop bet I like best this week. Brown is flying under the radar this week after this being his last four games: 21 receiving yard, DNP, 4-0-0, DNP. As of Friday, he had no injury designation meaning his knee issue is no longer a problem. The Seahawks have been terrible against the pass and the Bills are home. Brown will have more than two targets this week (that he had last week) and it's not a bad idea to do a lesser bet on his anytime touchdown odds (+225).
Patrick Mahomes Under 2.5 touchdown passes (-143) - Recency bias (five touchdown passes last week) says to hammer the over here but the Panthers have had an extra week off to prepare and aren't the Jets (yes, I know the upset I predicted earlier!). Before last week Mahomes had four straight games of two or less touchdown passes and there's a good likely hood we see a rushing touchdown or two in this game.
A.J. Brown Over 61.5 receiving yards - He's had touchdowns in his last four games and this is a case where I feel like this could be won by halftime. The Bears are an overrated team in my opinion and he's gone over this mark in two out of three games at home this season. This could easily hit on one play, that's how good Brown is.
Player Touchdowns
Clyde Edwards-Helaire +100 - He's only scored two touchdowns this season and Le'Veon Bell's presence further clouds things. All that being said, CEH at a +100 mark for a touchdown seems reasonable. I actually like CEH for, wait for it, 2+ touchdowns at +500 at a smaller wager.
Gus Edwards +230, J.K. Dobbins +190 - Taking both last week netted a profit so why not try again this week? Oddly, Edwards scored last week but has the better odds this week. There's a definite chance both could hit pay dirt and this would pay off handsomely. Without Mark Ingram at least one of them should score.
Hunter Henry +160 - I know he hasn't lived up to his hype this season but a big game is coming up for him. In five of his seven games he has at least seven targets so he's not being ignored by Justin Herbert. I don't mind trying to hit a home run here and take his over for receiving yards (37.5) as well.
Chase Edmonds -167 - I typically don't like laying odds like this but without Kenyan Drake it seems like a forgone conclusion Edmonds will find the end zone. While the Miami defense has improved this season, they haven't been great against the run. This is another case where I'd throw a small amount on his two touchdowns or more odds (+250).
