This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Game lines
The game I like best this week is the Rams at home against the Bears. They are -5.5 points on the site and I love wagering on a team coming off a loss (San Francisco) against a team who has been very lucky (Da Bears). Unfortunately, we just have to wait until Monday for it.
While the Bills won the first time around, it was here in the budding metropolis of Buffalo as opposed to being a home game for the Jets. The spread is down to 10.5 points from 13.5 when the line opened and usually I'd go against the way the line moves. However, I like the Jets in this game and I'd sprinkle in another bet on the over of 46 points. The Bills defense has been gashed by the run recently and I'd expect Frank Gore to have 33 rushes for 90 yards and a score in this one. Don't discount the Gore revenge factor (kidding, kidding).
Steelers/Titans under 50.5 - It seems like Vegas has adjusted for all of the high scoring games and there should be some advantage if they're over-correcting taking the unders. This game has the feel of a defensive battle with both teams being undefeated and working in healthy doses of Derrick Henry and James Conner. Using both of those running backs will drain the clock and both of these teams have decent defenses.
Player Props
JuJu Smith-Schuster over 45.5 receiving yards - He's 23 (will be 24 next month) so he probably hasn't reached his prime yet. I'm not afraid of the Titans defense and this number is so low due to him having 34 receiving yards over his last two games. He's just as talented as Chase Claypool (probably more) and this is the wager I'm most confident in this week. For the record, I've been pretty spot on when it comes to these prognostications.
Matthew Stafford over 285.5 passing yards - It's against the Falcons and I'd take Mark Sanchez's over at this point if he was playing them. Kirk Cousins had done nothing at halftime of their game and still ended up with 333 passing yard and three touchdowns by the time everything was said and done. Kenny Golladay is completely healthy, T.J. Hockenson has a great matchup and Marvin Jones the second should have an impact as well.
Andy Dalton over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-124) - This isn't speaking to my confidence in Dalton; rather it's speaking to my confidence in Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup and Dalton Schultz. The test here will be the Cowboys depleted offensive line vs. a stout Washington football defensive line. However, the Washington secondary isn't something to trust which is why I like this prop.
Player Touchdowns
A.J. Green +200 - I'm completely off Green from a fantasy, rest of the season standpoint but the Browns secondary is horrible and the Bengals seem intent on feeding Green the ball. Evidence the 11 targets last week after he complained about not getting the ball and you'd think a similar number (at least eight targets) is in store for him this week.
Darren Fells +210 - Jordan Akins is trending towards not playing in this game leaving Fells as the only option at tight end. This game has a healthy over/under of 57 and the offense has picked things up since the firing of Bill O'Brien. Fells has touchdowns in each of his last two games (minus Akins) so this seems like a gift.
Deonte Harris, Marquez Callaway +325 - This is one of those situations where I'll take both and pray that they both hit but only need one to make a profit. Michael Thomas is out, Emmanuel Sanders is on the Covid-19 list and Harris/Callaway will be thrust into action as a result. The Saints are coming off a bye so they should be prepared and chances are the Panthers sell out to stop Alvin Kamara in the red zone.
