This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
It's another wonderful week a football meaning another wonderful week of wagering. The player props have easily become my favorite wagers to look at and I tried an experiment this week that I've done in the past with game wagers and over/unders. If you have a good feeling about a player, go back and look at their game logs and matchup for that week. Write down what you think the line will be for that player whether it is rushing, passing or receiving. Get this done before Friday when the player props come out for the DraftKings sportsbook. It's a fun way to compare yourself to their line and possibly take advantage of a discrepancy between your number and theirs. You can even go as far as to track your results on a weekly basis and see who is more on target, the sportsbook or you.
GAMES
The game I like the most this week is the Atlanta Falcons at home laying 2.5 points. The preseason spread for this game would have been around a touchdown I'd think and this spread suggest on a neutral field the Panthers would be favored. The Falcons were embarrassed Monday night by the Packers but Green Bay has done that to everyone this season. Carolina is coming off a 10-point home win against the Cardinals so they look like the easy pick here. I'm not about to bet against Matt Ryan in this matchup and while Julio Jones is out, Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage and Olamide Zaccheaus are still a trio of good receivers.
There will be Survivor carnage this week! At least that's what I think. Looking through some different sites, it seems that the most used team this week will be the Dallas Cowboys -9. This sounds weird and I've been wrong about them before but I like the Giants in this spot, both with the points and the money line +270. It came out Friday that Dak Prescott will be without left tackle Tyron Smith for the rest of the season leaving a huge hole in the offensive line. As a result, the Giants pass rush should be able to get pressure on Prescott not allowing the big plays down the field to develop.
Finally, looking at the nightcap, I like the Vikings with the seven points on the road in Seattle. The Seahawks were a terrible team to face when they were at home but without a crowd it's much less daunting. Seattle's defense has been pretty bad this season and I can see the Vikings having a good game plan. That game plan would involve running the ball, chewing up the clock and limiting the possessions for Russell Wilson and company. Sprinkle in a little less on the Minnesota money line (+265) as they could add to the Survivor carnage.
PLAYER PROPS
I am all-in on D.J. Moore this week. His receiving total opened at 67.5 yards and immediately people hit the over and the odds went from -112 to -134. Moore has only gone over 67.5 yards once this season (had 120 vs. Tampa Bay) but this is as good of a matchup on paper as there is. A stat that portends well for Moore's success in this game is that Teddy Bridgewater's over/under for passing yards is 295.5 and his over for 1.5 touchdown passes is -190 suggesting that will happen. As long as I'm mentioning Moore, I'd double up on him on his anytime touchdown odds (+165) despite the fact he hasn't scored yet this season.
Philip Rivers has been very consistent throwing one touchdown in every game this season but that's also been his problem - he's just thrown one touchdown in every game this season. His odds to throw more than one touchdown in Sunday's game against the Browns currently sits at +100 meaning you'll win back a dollar for every dollar wagered. This may look like a sucker bet do to Rivers track record as a Colt but the Browns have allowed the second-most passing touchdowns to opposing team this season. Hit the over.
Other Props to Consider:
Robert Woods over 57.5 receiving yards (Jared Goff's over/under 267.5 passing yards)
Terry McLaurin under 68.5 receiving yards (Kyle Allen + Jalen Ramsey)
Kareem Hunt over 99.5 rushing + receiving yards
PLAYER TOUCHDOWNS
When it comes to player touchdowns, I like to take two players from the same team and bet each for an anytime touchdown. Usually the odds are +200 or greater meaning if only one of them hits, I'm profiting half of my original wager. Of course, the matchup has to be good too. The two guys I like this week using that philosophy are Darius Slayton (+200) and Golden Tate (+200). The Cowboys have allowed nine receiving touchdowns to opposing wide receiver so far this season and the receiving tree is very narrow. The next guy listed on the wide receiver depth chart is C.J. Board, someone who honestly hasn't been on my radar. At least take one of these guys if you have a preference but I'll hedge and take both.
I don't like taking a player at -240 to score but I feel like it should be -300 or worse for Clyde Edwards-Helaire this week. It's a great home matchup against the Raiders who have allowed seven rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs as well as the most fantasy points on average to the position this season. He's also +175 to two touchdowns if you're will take some risk here. As of Friday night his rushing and receiving props weren't out yet but the over will probably be the play without looking.
Other Anytime Touchdown Players to Consider:
Travis Kelce -162
Henry Ruggs +240
Ian Thomas +375
Josh Hill +950 (take it now and hope Jared Cook is out again)
