DraftKings NFL: Week 5 Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's 12-game slate is the first I can remember that doesn't feature a 50-point total. I see only three spots that are going to be popular for game stacks. The Bills have the highest implied total, but they're 14-point favorites against the Steelers, which isn't ideal if you're hoping for a shootout. The Buccaneers have the next highest total at home against the Falcons. Tom Brady and Chris Godwin are underpriced while Mike Evans and Leonard Fournette project well too. With Drake London standing alone on the Atlanta side after Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts were ruled out, that game will be a popular stack. 

The most popular likely will be Eagles-Cardinals matchup as it has the highest total and best change of staying competitive. There are appealing options on both sides, at every position, which makes it ideal to stack. Besides those spots, this slate is wide open. Remember to avoid entering cash-game lineups in GPPs. No player is ever a "lock" in the NFL. Look to gain leverage by fading chalk and building lineups that correlate. It's much easier to win large-field tournaments by targeting spots that aren't going to be as popular, especially on a slates like this where the chalk isn't that great to begin with. Good Luck.

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays. These players, combined with passing-game stacks, tend to form the core that remains fairly consistent throughout my lineups.

• RB Jeff Wilson at CAR ($5,500)

Wilson has looked pretty good filling in for the injured Elijah Mitchell. He's had at least 15 touches in three consecutive starts and should get upward of 20 on Sunday as the 49ers are 7-point favorites at Carolina. The likely game script sets up for them to get a lead and lean on Wilson. He has the upside for 100-plus yards and TD. If you're not sold, consider the New England RBs for the same salary. Detroit is allowing 5.3 yards per carry and they've given up the second-most fantasy points to opposing backs. Damien Harris ($5,600) and Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,500) have been sharing the work and whoever finds the end zone should have a nice game. 

• WR Tyler Lockett at NO ($5,600)

Lockett continues to be a bargain for less than $6K. He has 24 catches on 30 targets the last three weeks. DK Metcalf will see most of the coverage from star cornerback Marshon Lattimore, which could give another bump to Lockett. If you're still wary of Geno Smith and the Seattle passing attack, consider the other side of that matchup. Promising rookie Chris Olave ($5,700) has been the Saints top playmaker this season. He's drawn 33 targets the last three weeks and is coming off his first TD. Assuming Michael Thomas is ruled out again, Olave should see big volume in a soft matchup. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Josh Allen vs. PIT ($8,200)

QB Tom Brady vs. ATL ($6,000)

RB Dalvin Cook vs. CHI ($7,300)

RB Leonard Fournette vs. ATL ($6,900)

RB Alvin Kamara vs. SEA ($6,600)

RB Khalil Herbert at MIN ($5,900)

RB Damien Harris vs DET ($5,600)

RB Rhamondre Stevenson vs. DET ($5,500)

RB Jeff Wilson at CAR ($5,500)

WR Cooper Kupp vs DAL ($9,600)

WR Tyreek Hill at NYJ ($8,000)

WR Deebo Samuel at CAR ($7,700)

WR Mike Evans vs. ATL ($6,900)

WR Chris Godwin vs. ATL ($5,900)

WR Drake London at TB ($5,900)

WR Chris Olave vs. SEA ($5,700)

WR Tyler Lockett at NO ($5,600)

WR Josh Reynolds at NE ($4,900), if Amon-Ra St. Brown is out

TE Tyler Higbee vs. DAL ($4,300)

D/ST San Francisco 49ers at CAR ($3,800)

D/ST Dallas Cowboys at LAR ($2,500)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Atlanta Falcons (19.75) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (28.25)

FALCONS

This game stack is really all about the Tampa Bay side but Atlanta has a couple good options that aren't too expensive. Cordarrelle Patterson is on injured reserve and it seems like the Falcons will initially use trio of running backs in his absence. I'll probably avoid the running game but if I was to pick one, it'd be Tyler Allgeier ($4,700). He rushed 10 times for 84 yards last week and added a 20-yard catch. Patterson's absence also leaves the Falcons with only two real playmakers in Drake London ($5,900) and Kyle Pitts ($4,400) and Pitts is out. This leaves London in a spot where he's almost sure to see big volume and he isn't very expensive. Part of what makes this stack appealing is that the decision is easy on the Falcons side. Just roster London and move on. He projects as good value in a vacuum and has considerable upside for an affordable salary. 

BUCCANEERS

Tom Brady ($6,000) is coming off his best game of the season against Kansas City when he threw for 385 yards and three TDs. Now he gets an especially soft matchup at home against Atlanta. Mike Evans ($6,900) had a massive game against the Chiefs, catching eight of 10 targets for 103 yards and two scores. His salary seems a bit too cheap for the type of ceiling he has in this spot. The same can be said for Chris Godwin ($5,900), who really looks like a bargain after catching seven of 10 targets in his return from a knee injury. He played 83 percent of snaps, which is just as encouraging. We won't see him priced less than $6K for long. Cade Otton ($2,500) is expected to start in place of Cameron Brate (concussion) at TE and could be worth taking a chance on for minimum salary. Not many will pair Brady with Leonard Fournette ($6,900), but he had seven catches and a TD last week. He's been consistently involved in the passing game for two seasons now. It's also an option to forget about the Tampa passing attack and just roster Fournette for the rushing upside and TD equity. This game could get out of hand early and Brady might not need to throw much in the second half. You could pair Fournette with London or Pitts and then stack another game for QB and WRs.   

• Favorite Stack: QB Brady + WR Evans + WR Godwin + WR London

Philadelphia Eagles (27) at Arizona Cardinals (22)

EAGLES

Some people like numbers so here are some that make the Eagles one of the best teams to target: they rank first in pass-blocking, second in pace, fourth in average play-clock remaining and sixth in no-huddle rate. Their games consistently produce more combined snaps than most, and the matchup against Arizona should be no different. The Philly passing-game was hampered by bad weather last week, but now the Eagles are indoors and face a Cardinals defense that ranks last in pass coverage. Jalen Hurts ($8,100) always has the upside to be the highest scoring QB and that's especially true in this spot. A.J. Brown ($7,500) has been relatively quiet by his standards, but he leads the NFL in air-yards share and seems due for a big game. DeVonta Smith ($6,000) will be less popular than the other WRs in that range and we just saw him put up 34 fantasy points two weeks ago. Both Eagles WRs are great options, as is Dallas Goedert ($4,700). The TE position is especially weak this week and Goedert, who's caught five balls in two of the last three, has as much TD upside as any. Miles Sanders ($6,500) exploded for 27 carries, 134 yards and two TDs in the bad weather. He's looked better than ever this season, seeing at least 15 touches in every game. He still isn't really involved in the passing-game though, so I probably wouldn't pair him with Hurts. Rostering him opposite Kyler Murray with a WR from each team would make more sense, in my opinion. 

CARDINALS 

Arizona has a tough matchup as Philly has one of the better defensive lines in football but its secondary is banged up and Kyler Murray ($7,400) can succeed with his legs against any front seven on his best days. It was encouraging to see him with 12 rushing attempts last week as he rushed for his second TD of the season. He'll also be less popular than Allen, Hurts and Brady, which is nice. Marquise Brown ($7,200) continues to draw a massive amount of targets, making his ceiling as high as any WR on the slate sans Kupp. Rondale Moore ($4,100) made his season debut last week and played 86 percent of snaps, both in the slot and out wide. He projects as one of the better cheap values at WR. Zach Ertz ($4,800) has caught at least six passes in three straight games and should see enough volume to make it four. Similar to Goedert, these TEs are more viable than usual due to less opportunity cost. I'll probably avoid James Conner ($6,300) due to the mismatch in the trenches but he's still viable based on his involvement in the passing game. 

• Favorite Stack: QB Hurts + WR Brown or WR Smith + WR Moore + TE Goedert

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Josh Allen + WR Stefon Diggs + WR George Pickens or TE Pat Freiermuth

QB Josh Allen + WR Gabe Davis + WR George Pickens or TE Pat Freiermuth

QB Kyler Murray + RB Miles Sanders + WR Marquise Brown + WR Rondale Moore or TE Zach Ertz

QB Kyler Murray + WR Marquise Brown + WR A.J. Brown or WR DeVonta Smith + TE Zach Ertz

QB Geno Smith + RB Alvin Kamara + WR Chris Olave + WR Tyler Lockett and/or WR DK Metcalf

QB Teddy Bridgewater + RB Breece Hall + WR Tyreek Hill and/or WR Jaylen Waddle 

High-Priced Heroes

• WR Cooper Kupp vs. DAL ($9,600)

Despite catching just four passes in Week 3, Kupp is on pace to break the receptions record through four weeks after hauling in another 14 last week. A tough matchup against the Cowboys' stellar defensive line should have Stafford looking for Kupp early and often. The price tag is steep, however, and there are good reasons to fade Kupp if that's the way you're leaning. Justin Jefferson ($8,900) will be less popular and offers a comparable ceiling in a home matchup against the Bears, who are likely without top CB Jaylon Johnson. 

• WR Deebo Samuel at CAR ($7,700)

Say whatever you want about Jimmy Garoppolo, he's better for Deebo Samuel's fantasy production than Trey Lance. Samuel caught six for 115 and a TD last week, and don't forget about his rushing upside. Expect more carries inside the red zone, helped by the continued absence of Elijah Mitchell. Some will want to avoid this matchup based on the low total, but the 49ers are big favorites on the road and it's actually a pretty good spot for Samuel to have multiple scores. 

Honorable Mentions: RB Derrick Henry ($8,200); WR Stefon Diggs ($8,400)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range

• RB Christian McCaffrey vs. SF ($8,500)

There are a few reasons why I can't justify spending up for McCaffrey this week. For one, the matchup against San Francisco is one of the toughest in the league. The 49ers have a great defensive line and the Panthers have one of the worst offensive lines. While it was encouraging to see McCaffrey catch nine passes last week, he hasn't been the same player with Baker Mayfield at QB. Not to mention that this game has the lowest total on the board and the Panthers are sizable underdogs. I'm not saying he can't have a big receiving day again, but I don't want to bank on it. I'd rather spend salary on the elite WRs, who have higher ceilings. If I was to take a chance at RB, It'd be for someone like Derrick Henry ($8,200), who has three-TD upside. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• WR Chris Godwin vs. ATL ($5,900)

Godwin returned from a knee injury and caught seven of 10 targets last week. He played 83 percent of the snaps and seemed to be healthy. We've rarely seen his salary this low and Sunday's matchup against Atlanta is a prime spot for a big game. The Falcons have given up the second-most touchdowns in the league to WRs and Godwin torched them for 15 catches and 143 yards when the two teams last met in December.  

Honorable Mentions: WR Drake London ($5,900); TE Kyle Pitts ($4,400)

The Bargain Bin

QB Trevor Lawrence vs. HOU ($5,600)

QB Geno Smith at NO ($5,500)

QB Teddy Bridgewater at NYJ ($5,400)

RB Breece Hall vs. MIA ($5,400)

RB Travis Etienne vs. HOU ($5,100)

RB Raheem Mostert at NYJ ($5,000)

WR George Pickens at BUG ($4,300)

WR Rondale Moore vs. PHI ($4,100)

WR Zay Jones vs. HOU ($4,100)

TE Pat Freiermuth at BUF ($4,100)

TE David Njoku vs. LAC ($3,800)

TE Cade Otton vs. ATL ($2,500)

Injuries to Monitor

• TE Dawson Knox and WR Jamison Crowder vs. PIT

Both Knox and Crowder are out. This is significant for Buffalo stacks as it means that Gabe Davis and Isaiah McKenzie should see an extra bump in target share. You can probably give Stefon Diggs a bump as well. Knox and Crowder have been combining for about eight targets per game, and that's quite a few extra that will be spread around to Diggs, Davis and McKenzie. 

• RB David Montgomery at MIN

Montgomery returned to practice in a limited fashion Friday and is listed as questionable. If he can't go, Khalil Herbert ($5,900) would be a decent option for an affordable salary. If Montgomery plays, I won't interest in either player.

• WR Keenan Allen at CLE 

Allen missed practice against Friday and is listed as questionable. His absence is a big boost for the likes of Mike Williams, Joshua Palmer and Gerald Everett. If Allen misses, stacking Herbert and Mike Williams seems like a pretty good option as they won't be overly popular. If Allen plays, it would take my off the Chargers altogether. It's always difficult to decide which one to roster and they eat into each ceilings. 

• WR Amon-Ra St. Brown at NE

I don't have much interest in the Detroit side of this matchup, but if St. Brown were to miss again, Josh Reynolds ($4,900) and T.J. Hockenson ($4,900) would look like pretty good value again. We saw them have big games last week and they'd be in line for significant target share again. If St. Brown plays, I wouldn't have interest in any of them. 

Weather

It's going to be a bit windy in Buffalo with gusts above 15 mph. Nothing crazy, but it could have an impact on deeper throws. It isn't enough to get me off of Josh Allen unless something changes.