This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.
The Games
| Over/Under | Road Team | Road Implied Total | Home Team | Home Implied Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42.5 | Los Angeles Chargers | 22.75 | Houston Texans | 19.75 |
| 43.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 17 | Baltimore Ravens | 26.5 |
Quarterback
- Lamar Jackson
vs. PIT ($8,000)
The Ravens are 9.5-point favorites at home against the Steelers. These teams met a few weeks ago in Week 16 and Baltimore won 34-17. Jackson threw for 207 yards and three TDs while rushing nine times for 22 yards in a game where the Ravens were never pushed. Historically, Pittsburgh has been a tougher matchup for Jackson and considering how inept the Steelers offense has been, I worry about his chances of putting up a big score. Zay Flowers (knee) out injured doesn't help either. Of course he still projects for more fantasy points than the other three QBs but the salary relief might be more important.
- Justin Herbert
at HOU ($6,000)
Herbert finished the regular season playing the best football of his career. He's thrown for at least 280 yards in three consecutive games while completing 73 percent of his passes and has multiple touchdowns in four straight. The Texans' defense isn't a particularly favorable matchup but the Chargers are road favorites and Herbert's been red hot. He's also pretty cheap and you can do a lot with the extra salary if you chose to fade Jackson. C.J. Stroud ($5,500) and Russell Wilson ($5,300) can be considered for GPPs. I prefer Stroud because though he hasn't shown it much this season, he's better player with more ceiling potential. Wilson has merit as he'll be considerably less popular than the other three. Likely for good reason, but you never know.
Running Back
- Derrick Henry vs. PIT ($8,200)
Henry cooked the Steelers for 162 yards on 24 rushes in the Week 16 matchup. He's averaging 25 touches over his last three games and should be in line for big volume again Saturday. It's worth noting that he's caught two passes in each of the last three and I wouldn't be surprised to see that again with Flowers sidelined. Considering the value at WR and TE, Henry is no-brainer.
- Joe Mixon
vs. LAC ($7,200)
Some project Mixon better than Henry from a point-per-dollar standpoint. I suppose that's understandable if you assume he'll be significantly involved in the passing-game, which would make sense with Houston missing Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. Regardless, he and Henry stand above the rest of the RBs. J.K. Dobbins ($6,200) looked more appealing before Gus Edwards ($4,300) was ruled in after practicing fully all week. Even still, Dobbins has the potential for 20 touches in certain game scripts. Jaylen Warren ($5,200) and Najee Harris ($5,000) continue to split time. I don't expect the Steelers to have much success on the ground against the league's best run defense, so I prefer Warren for his pass-catching upside. It will probably be a better script for him too, assuming Pittsburgh plays from behind.
Wide Receiver
- Nico Collins vs. LAC ($7,800)
Collins played less than a quarter last week and still caught five passes for 38 yards and a touchdown. He's one of the most explosive players in the league and should be the focal point of Houston's offense in the absence of Diggs and Dell. I expect him to be the most popular WR, followed closely by Ladd McConkey ($6,800), who really emerged over the second half of the season. He's been consistent too, scoring at least 14 DraftKings points in seven consecutive games while catching at least five passes in each. If forced to choose, I slightly prefer Collins as he's more likely to score but it's possible to afford both.
- Quentin Johnston at HOU ($4,800)
Johnston is coming off the best performance of his career after catching 13 of 14 targets for 186 yards against the Raiders last week. It's been a struggle at times, but he's shown some promise this season and the volume should remain with Joshua Palmer (foot) ruled out again. The decision between Johnston and Rashod Bateman ($5,000) is a tough one. With Zay Flowers out, Bateman is the Ravens' No. 1 WR and he caught five of eight targets for 76 yards and a touchdown in that role last week after Flowers exited in the second quarter. It's essentially a toss up. I have Johnston drawing a few more targets but potentially having a tougher matchup against two good corners while Baltimore has a higher team total. Take your pick or play both.
Tight End
- Mark Andrews vs. PIT ($4,700)
Andrews has a touchdown-catch in six consecutive games and his prospects of continuing that streak look better even better with Flowers out. He projects for the most points at the position and also as the top point-per-dollar value, making him a strong option in all formats. I'll stop short of calling him a lock for cash games because there are decent options for cheaper, including his teammate Isaiah Likely ($3,100), who has a touchdown in three of the last five games.
Dalton Schultz ($3,600) has seen a bump in target share with the Texans short at WR. Will Dissly ($3,400) is back healthy and coming off five catches and a touchdown last week. Pat Freiermuth ($4,400) might get overlooked despite 15 catches on 19 targets the last two weeks. Russell Wilson likes to spam him in garbage time or whenever they're chasing the game and it wouldn't be surprising to see him get there late again. With five viable TEs, rostering two will be popular. I'll side with the Baltimore options based on increased opportunity in the absence of Flowers.
Defense/Special Teams
- Baltimore Ravens at PIT ($3,700)
The Ravens ($3,700) and Chargers ($3,200) will be considerably the most popular. Opposed to bigger slates, most like to spend up for the best defense on smaller slates. Targeting a matchup against Russell Wilson makes sense. So does a matchup against Houston's terrible offensive line. The Texans ($2,700) and Steelers ($2,200) offer salary relief and the potential for different lineup constructions in tournaments.
