This article is part of our DFS Tournament Guide series.
This guide focuses strictly on the main slate of Sunday afternoon games, with recommendations meant to be used for large-field, GPP tournaments. Player prices will only be mentioned for the two largest DFS sites, though much of what's discussed can be applied throughout the industry.
Point-Per-Dollar Value Plays
Variance and low ownership are desirable in large DFS tournaments, but we still need a few building-block players that are strong bets to outperform their price tags even if they don't have the highest ceilings and/or are likely to be popular plays. We'll also want to keep a close eye on injury situations with potential to create value for teammates (this is covered at the bottom of the page).
QB Blake Bortles, JAX (at KC), ($5,500 DK; $7,000 FD)
This is the perfect spot for Jacksonville's passing game to thrive, drawing an ideal matchup against the shootout-machine Chiefs with T.J. Yeldon (ankle) replacing Leonard Fournette (hamstring) in the backfield. Bortles has averaged 289 passing yards in five games with Fournette out of the lineup the past two seasons, leading the Jags to a 4-1 record in those contests. My only real concern is the lack of an obvious stacking partner, as Jacksonville has five players with a target share between 12 and 19 percent. Pricing points to Dede Westbrook on DraftKings ($4,700) and Keelan Cole on FanDuel ($5,700).
RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR (vs. NYG), ($8,000 DK; $8,100 FD)
McCaffrey has piled up 428 scrimmage yards in three games, ranking sixth among running backs in per-game PPR scoring (20.9) without the help of even a single touchdown. His massive snap share (93 percent) allows for big outings in any type of game context, and it also means it's only a matter of time before the touchdowns begin to flow. With the Panthers favored by six points against a Giants team that's allowing 4.8 yards per carry, Sunday points more toward the rushing side of McCaffrey's production. Fortunately, the Giants have also had issues defending running backs in the passing game, allowing 25 catches for 221 yard and three TDs on 37 targets.
Passing Stacks
Correlation plays are the centerpiece of any DFS tournament lineup, and this is usually where I start to focus on ceiling and ownership in addition to point-per-dollar projections. Not to say we can't also find value, but it's often worth a small sacrifice in that department to avoid the stacks that will crop up in a multitude of lineups. The ideal scenario allows us to match our QB with one of his primary targets as well as a pass catcher from the other team, hoping to capitalize on a tight, high-scoring affair in which both sides stay aggressive deep into the fourth quarter. With that mind, here are the games I'm focusing on for Sunday:
Falcons at Steelers
This game stands out above the others for shootout potential, leading the way with an over/under of 58 points on a slate with five games projected at 50 or higher. The downside, of course, is the difficulty of making these stacks work without massive sacrifices at other positions. I'm actually leaning toward other stacking options on DraftKings, but I do like a FanDuel stack featuring Ben Roethlisberger ($8,400), Antonio Brown ($9,000), Julio Jones ($8,800) and Vance McDonald ($4,600).
Raiders at Chargers
This is our second-highest over/under (53) on the main slate, with implied totals of Chargers 29 - Raiders 24. Philip Rivers is too expensive for my liking in a game that should allow for a balanced approach on the Los Angeles side, but Derek Carr ($5,200 DK; $7,000 FD) makes a lot of sense as a discount option with potential for massive volume. It helps that Amari Cooper ($5,500 DK; $6,500 FD), Jordy Nelson ($4,500 DK; $5,600 FD) and Jared Cook ($4,800 DK; $5,900) are all reasonably priced for a matchup against a Chargers defense that's allowing 8.7 yards per pass attempt. Keenan Allen ($7,800 DK; $8,100 FD) is a nice option to balance out the stack, as he should push for double-digit targets if Carr is able to keep the game competitive. With passing-down back Jalen Richard ($3,400 DK; $4,600 FD) carrying some appeal as a discount option, there are a number of different ways to approach this game. I'm leaning toward Carr-Richard-Cooper-Allen on DraftKings and Carr-Nelson-Allen-Cook on FanDuel.
RB-Defense Pairing
While not nearly as important as quarterback-receiver combos, RB-Defense mini-stacks present another opportunity to take advantage of positive correlations in tournament lineups. We're generally looking for teams that are comfortably favored to win, preferably with a starting running back who dominates goal-line and clock-killing work.
Derrick Henry ($4,400 DK; $5,800 FD) + Titans D/ST ($4,000 DK; $3,900 FD)
I actually considered skipping this section, as it's tough to find any alignment between my favorite options at running back and D/ST aside from Christian McCaffrey and the Panthers (which isn't really a correlation play). There is some appeal to Isaiah Crowell + Jets, but only under the DraftKings pricing. Henry-Titans is at least feasible on both sites, though preferable on FanDuel due to the discount we get with the Tennessee defense. Henry isn't a guy I'd want on my season-long team, but he'll inevitably have a few big days when the Titans play with a lead and he breaks off one of his long runs. The Bills are always a strong candidate to find themselves on the wrong side of one of those games.
High-Priced Hero
WR Antonio Brown, PIT (vs. ATL), ($9,100 DK; $9,000 FD)
The Falcons have been a tough matchup for wide receivers since they hired Dan Quinn in 2015, deploying a conservative defensive scheme that funnels targets toward the middle of the field. The plan has mostly been successful, but it's no longer viable in 2018 after the team lost both starting safeties to season-ending injuries. The Falcons adjusted last week by moving slot corner Brian Poole to safety and top cornerback Desmond Trufant to the slot — the result was an 11-catch game for Tyler Boyd as well as wide-open touchdowns for A.J. Green and John Ross (groin). Brown now finds himself in an ideal spot for his first blow-up game of the season, with an excellent chance to draw double-digit targets and slip behind the defense for a long gain.
Fading The Field
Every week we see at least one or two players carrying high ownership without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. Recency bias is often the motivating factor, as we often subconsciously overestimate the predictive value of last week's results.
RB James Conner, PIT (vs. ATL), ($7,500 DK; $7,800 FD)
Conner will play a ton of snaps against a terrible defense in a likely shootout, making it impossible to ignore his impressive ceiling. The drawback? He simply isn't a good player, while Brown and Smith-Schuster most certainly are. The Steelers have never been shy about going pass-heavy when it works to their advantage, including the past three weeks against the Chiefs, Bucs and Ravens. The approach was partially a product of necessity in Weeks 2 and 4, but we should also note that Conner was limited to 15 carries versus Tampa Bay in a game that saw the Steelers take a 20-point lead before halftime. In a week with a ton of expensive players in good spots, Conner isn't one of the guys worth paying up for.
WR Tyler Boyd, CIN (vs. MIA), ($5,700 DK; $6,300 FD)
Boyd made me look smart in Week 3 when I recommended stacking him with McCaffrey and Cam Newton, then made me look stupid last week when I listed him in this very same spot. I'm doubling down on the expectation of disappointment, this time pointing to a matchup that could limit Andy Dalton to 30-35 pass attempts. The Dolphins have a tendency to depress volume for both sides of a matchup, and I'm not convinced they'll score enough points to force Cincinnati to stay aggressive after halftime. Boyd still offers good point-per-dollar value, but not to the extent where I want to roster him with ownership around 15-to-25 percent.
The Bargain Bin
QB Derek Carr, OAK (at LAC), ($5,200 DK; $7,000 FD)
RB Isaiah Crowell, NYJ (vs. DEN), ($4,100 DK; $5,900 FD)
RB Jalen Richard, OAK (at LAC), ($3,400 DK; $4,600 FD)
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB (at DET), ($3,300 DK; $4,800 FD)
TE Nick Vannett, SEA (vs. LAR), ($2,500 DK; $4,300 FD)
D/ST Cowboys (vs. DET), ($2,400 DK; $3,700 FD)
Pricing Discrepancies Between FD and DK
My DK-only list features Cam Newton ($6,400), David Johnson ($6,300), Doug Baldwin ($5,000), Marvin Jones ($4,700) and Larry Fitzgerald ($4,700).
The FD-only list is Cooper Kupp ($6,700), Kenny Golladay ($6,300), Zach Ertz ($7,500) and Vance McDonald ($4,600).
Injury Situations to Monitor
Collins (knee) reportedly isn't dealing with a serious injury, but it's something we need to watch after he was held out of practice Thursday. A Week 5 absence would leave Javorius Allen ($4,700 DK; $5,400 FD) as the top value on the board at any position, considering undrafted rookie De'Lance Turner is the only other running back on Baltimore's roster. Allen should push for 20 touches if Collins doesn't end up playing.
Cook aggravated his hamstring last week and now seems poised to sit for a second time in the span of three games. I'm still more inclined to target Minnesota's passing attack, but Latavius Murray ($4,500 DK; $5,100 FD) at least needs to enter the discussion if Cook is ruled out. The Vikings probably won't give many snaps to undrafted rookies Mike Boone and Roc Thomas.
Good luck figuring this one out. Mike Davis ($3,500 DK; $5,500 FD) offers clear value if Carson misses another game, but we can't trust anything Pete Carroll says and won't have a good idea until the Seahawks release their inactive list. With kickoff scheduled for 4:25 ET, there will be limited options to replace Davis in the event Carson is cleared to play. Flex alternatives from the late games include Jalen Richard, Christian Kirk, Wendell Smallwood and Brandon Marshall. I'll probably ignore this situation on FanDuel, but I do kind of like the idea of starting Davis/Richard in the flex spot on DraftKings.
Packers Wide Receivers
Davante Adams (calf), Randall Cobb (hamstring) and Geronimo Allison (concussion) all appear no better than questionable for Week 5, likely leaving Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3,300 DK; $4,800 FD) as the No. 1 or No. 2 wide receiver in an Aaron Rodgers offense. Given the price and matchup, it's a situation worth targeting even though we're dealing with a totally unproven player who is likely to carry high ownership. We can also hone in on TE Jimmy Graham ($4,700 DK; $6,100 FD) as a potential beneficiary of the injury issues at wide receiver.
Weather Watch
(Insert my usual warning about checking forecasts Sunday morning.) Now that that's out of the way, it does look like another clean weak for weather. We have minor concerns about wind in San Francisco and rain in Kansas City, but neither situation looks too problematic as of Friday morning.
