This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Betting Odds Picks and Predictions for Sunday Night Football, Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens
The Bills' outlook heading into the season looked decidedly uncertain following the offseason revamping of Buffalo's receiver corps, but Josh Allen has helped spearhead a surprising 3-0 mark.
Meanwhile, after starting 0-2 for the first time since 2015, the Ravens went into Dallas and notched a 28-25 victory over the Cowboys to give themselves a jolt of early-season life. That sets up a marquee showdown between Allen and Lamar Jackson, their fourth in which each opens the game as the starting QB.
Without further ado, let's dive into the best betting scenarios for the Week 4 primetime clash.
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Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens Betting Odds for NFL Week 4
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Bills +120 (bet 365) / Ravens -130 (BetMGM)
Point spread: Bills +2.5 (BetMGM) / Ravens -2.5 (Caesars)
Totals: Under 46.5 points (BetMGM) / Over 46.5 points (Caesars)
Oddsmakers established the Ravens as the early 1.5-point favorites, and the betting public has agreed and driven that number up further despite the Bills' very impressive Monday night showing against the Jags. The spread rose and reached its current 2.5 number early this week, and then held steady.
The total has gone in the opposite direction, but without drastic movement. It sat at 45.5 pre-Week 3, but after Baltimore scored 28 and Buffalo rang up 47 in the two teams' respective Week 3 contests, the masses bet the number up to 46.5.
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Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens Betting Picks This Week
As alluded to above, the Bills' 3-0 start hasn't quite convinced the betting public when Buffalo's faces a fellow healthy contender. Buffalo did struggle early against the Cardinals at home in Week 1 before escaping with a 34-28 victory. The Bills then looked like an absolute juggernaut over the next two games while dismantling the Dolphins and Jaguars by a combined 88-20 score.
While those two squads qualified as contenders going into the 2024 campaign, the first three weeks have stripped that classification from each of them for different reasons. In the case of the Dolphins, Miami struggled offensively through the first six quarters-plus of the season with Tua Tagovailoa at the helm. They looked far worse once he went down with a concussion during the loss to the Bills. For their part, the Jags were mostly healthy for the first three games but underachieved offensively to an unexpected degree.
Therefore, most see this game as Buffalo's first true test, even as the Ravens enter at just 1-2. Granted, an argument could be made that they could just as easily sit at 3-0, considering the circumstances of their season-opening loss to the Chiefs (Isaiah Likely's toe landing about six inches out of bounds on a late TD) and the shocking defeat to the Raiders in Week 2 (blown two-possession second-half lead). Jackson has looked more or less like himself thus far and appears even faster after dropping some weight in the offseason. Derrick Henry has thrived as the team's new lead back and comes off a vintage 151-yard, two-touchdown performance in Week 3.
This game sets up as a true wire-to-wire battle, as the two squads can seemingly match each other piece for piece. Allen and Jackson are major X-factors at quarterback; Henry and James Cook are dynamic running backs that can hurt teams through both the ground and air; Khalil Shakir and Zay Flowers are explosive No. 1 receivers; despite slow starts, both Mark Andrews and Dalton Kincaid are difference-making tight ends, while Likely and Dawson Knox are starting-caliber No. 2 options at the position.
The comparisons extend to the defenses, two prideful units that can get after the quarterback and get their hands on the ball. Consequently, this game, much like the Ravens-Cowboys Week 3 clash, is a likely wire-to-wire battle that may see a home team with a bit of extra incentive in trying to get to .500 and protect its home turf from a team trying to remain undefeated at their expense.
As a result, I see a Ravens win, but one that's by the thinnest of margins. Therefore, a same-game parlay that banks on the Bills losing by a field goal or less while Allen eclipses a very manageable passing yardage total is a good way to snag a good price.
Best Bet
Same-Game Parlay: Bills +3.5 Alt. Spread and Josh Allen 200+ passing yards (+109 on FanDuel)
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Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens Prediction
Ravens 24, Bills 23
I see this game playing out as closely as oddsmakers and the betting public appear to expect. Both teams have dynamic offenses that feature explosive backs and pass catchers, and each defense has plenty of big names as well. I ultimately see Baltimore having a bit more to attack with due to the power/speed combination of Henry. I believe he will be key to providing balance and wearing down Buffalo's front in the thinnest of home wins for Baltimore.
