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Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions
In what many consider a Super Bowl preview, the Bills and Lions face off in a highly anticipated interconference marquee matchup at Ford Field. The betting interest in this game is undoubtedly high, and given the closely matchup, it's also a fascinating one to prognosticate.
Read on as we break down odds and best bets.
Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Bills +124 (DraftKings Sportsbook)/ Lions -138 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Point spread: Bills +2.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)/ Lions -2.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Totals: Under 54.5 points (bet365 Sportsbook)/ Over 54.5 points (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Although there's no shortage of betting interest in this game, the spread has enjoyed relative stability with each team coming in at full strength at all key spots. The number sat at -3 for the Lions before Week 14 action, and has primarily remained within that number and -2. It did see a brief dip to -1.5 at the beginning of the week in the immediate aftermath of Josh Allen's unforgettable six-touchdown effort in defeat versus the Rams.
In contrast, the total has gone on a steady upward trajectory. It already sat at a robust 51 before Week 14 unfolded. It dipped slightly to 50.5 before last weekend, but following Buffalo's outstanding offensive showing against Los Angeles – not to mention the defensive vulnerability the Bills showed – the figure has shot up as high as 55 this week.
Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions Betting Picks
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Allen offered the most impactful reminder possible of why he's the odds-on NFL MVP favorite with his Week 14 performance against the Rams, even in a losing effort. His record-setting body of work in that game naturally helped to drive an already elevated opening total for this game even higher.
The Lions' own high-octane offense certainly has a role to play in that as well. Detroit has scored at least 31 points on six occasions, including at least 42 points four times and 52 in two instances. Given the explosive offensive players on either side in this matchup – including Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid, who'll both make their returns from multi-week absences for Buffalo – the Over may well be a tempting bet.
I would have concurred at the original number of 50.5-51, but the subsequent climb has made me go the opposite direction, especially since you can even tease the number up an additional point on FanDuel and still get an acceptable price. Neither defense is anything close to a pushover, even when considering the outlier of a performance the Bills' unit had against the Rams.
Buffalo still surrenders an acceptable 23.1 points per road game even after last week's meltdown. Meanwhile Detroit allows an NFC-low 18.0 points per game overall. Both teams are also above average in red-zone TD scoring percentage surrendered in the Week 15 splits that apply – the Bills allow a 55.6 percent success rate on the road, while the Lions sit at 59.1 percent at home.
The Lions are also a stalwart unit against the run, and they'll have key run stuffers Alim McNeill and DJ Reader back to plug up the middle in this game. That stands to make Buffalo largely one-dimensional on offense. Factor in that the Lions are tied for fourth-fewest opponent plays per game allowed (59.0) thanks to their tendencies to lean heavily on their star backfield whenever possible, and you have the recipe for notably less offensive success for the Bills than in their 42-point outburst versus a much more vulnerable Rams defense, partly due to just having fewer plays to work with.
Speaking of that Lions' ground attack, a bet on David Montgomery eclipsing a very achievable rushing yardage total is also in play. D-Mont is the workhorse, early-down grinder and checks in with some extra rest after the Lions played Thursday night in Week 14. Montgomery has eclipsed this rushing yardage tally in six of 13 games, and the Bills allow 130.7 rushing yards per road game and 4.6 yards per carry.
Bills at Lions Best Bets
Alt. total Under 55.5 (-130 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
David Montgomery Over 56.5 rushing yards (-110 on Bet365 Sportsbook)
Bills @ Lions Prediction
Lions 27, Bills 23
These offenses have too much talent to be truly limited despite the strong defenses. The Lions are a supremely confident bunch at home, and the matchup for their preferred method of controlling games, via the run, is a favorable one. As such, I see Detroit having just enough to squeak by with a close, high-quality victory.
