This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Last week was so-so. I went 7-9 overall, but won my best bet and went 3-2 in the SuperContest. This week, there are seven home dogs, and I took six of them.
I especially like the Panthers, Eagles, Colts, Dolphins and Ravens.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Giants +3.5 at Football Team
I'm a Giants fan, so usually I'm on them, but this line is too small. The Team is the better team, they're at home and Taylor Heinicke has looked okay thus far. Lay the wood.
Football Team 23 - 17
EARLY GAMES
Saints -3.5 at Panthers
The Saints looked great last week, but I'll sell high and take the Panthers getting more than a field goal at home against their division rival. Take the points.
Saints 26 - 23
Texans +12.5 at Browns
Maybe the Texans are serious about the season after all. Tyrod Taylor has always been serviceable too. That said, I'll lay the wood here as the Browns are built to beat up on weaker teams. The one concern I have is the loss of Jedrick Wills, whose absence seemed significant against the Chiefs. Still, lay the wood.
Browns 31 - 17
Bengals +3 at Bears
I see these as roughly equal teams, but give me the Bears, who have the better defense, at home.
Bears 24 - 20
Raiders +5.5 at Steelers
I moved this line down to 4.5 after watching the Monday night game, so I'm on the Raiders. That might be a mistake, though, as
Last week was so-so. I went 7-9 overall, but won my best bet and went 3-2 in the SuperContest. This week, there are seven home dogs, and I took six of them.
I especially like the Panthers, Eagles, Colts, Dolphins and Ravens.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Giants +3.5 at Football Team
I'm a Giants fan, so usually I'm on them, but this line is too small. The Team is the better team, they're at home and Taylor Heinicke has looked okay thus far. Lay the wood.
Football Team 23 - 17
EARLY GAMES
Saints -3.5 at Panthers
The Saints looked great last week, but I'll sell high and take the Panthers getting more than a field goal at home against their division rival. Take the points.
Saints 26 - 23
Texans +12.5 at Browns
Maybe the Texans are serious about the season after all. Tyrod Taylor has always been serviceable too. That said, I'll lay the wood here as the Browns are built to beat up on weaker teams. The one concern I have is the loss of Jedrick Wills, whose absence seemed significant against the Chiefs. Still, lay the wood.
Browns 31 - 17
Bengals +3 at Bears
I see these as roughly equal teams, but give me the Bears, who have the better defense, at home.
Bears 24 - 20
Raiders +5.5 at Steelers
I moved this line down to 4.5 after watching the Monday night game, so I'm on the Raiders. That might be a mistake, though, as it's a short week, they're traveling west to east, and they lost a starting guard during the game. But the Steelers were unimpressive offensively, and I don't want to overrate them after a single win that required a blocked punt TD. Take the points.
Steelers 20 - 16
Bills -3.5 at Dolphins
I made this line 2.5, as the Dolphins are a solid team, and more than a field goal would be too much even if the 2020 Bills showed up last week. Take the points.
Bills 24 - 23
Rams -4 at Colts
Another road favorite/home dog, and again this seemed like too many points. The Rams looked good Sunday night, but two of their scores came on blown plays, and otherwise the Bears hung around. Take the points.
Rams 20 - 19
49ers -3.5 at Eagles
I was buying the Eagles before Week 1, so this one has some confirmation-bias danger. The 49ers are a good team, but more than a field goal on the road seems excessive. Take the points.
Eagles 24 - 23
Broncos -6 at Jaguars
Maybe the Jaguars are really that bad, but this is a big road line. The Broncos looked good last week against the Giants, but I expect Trevor Lawrence to bounce back and have a better game. Take the points.
Broncos 24 - 20
Patriots -5.5 at Jets
I made this line exactly 5.5, so I could go either way. The Jets feel like the right side, but Bill Belichick owns rookie QBs, and I like New England off the loss. Lay the wood.
Patriots 23 - 17
LATE GAMES
Vikings +4.5 at Cardinals
I made this line four, and it's crept up to 4.5, so I'm on the Vikings. The Cardinals looked great last week, but before Week 1, I would have said these were even teams. Take the points.
Vikings 24 - 23
Falcons +12.5 at Buccaneers
I made this line an absurd 15.5 just to assure I was on the Bucs. It's probably the sucker side, but Tampa has had 10 days off, and the Falcons were a no-show at home against the Eagles. Lay the wood.
Buccaneers 37 - 20
Titans +5.5 at Seahawks
The Titans defense has been terrible dating back to last season, so I set this at 6.5, putting me on Seattle. I'd expect Tennessee's offense to get going, but it'll be tough to keep up. Lay the wood.
Seahawks 37 - 30
Cowboys +3 at Chargers
I made this line exactly three, so it's a coin flip. The Cowboys looked good on Thursday night, and they have 10 days off. The Chargers also looked good against the Football Team, but they don't have much (if any) home field advantage. I'll lay the wood, though, as LA has the better defense.
Chargers 31 - 27
SUNDAY NIGHT
Chiefs -3.5 at Ravens
The Ravens looked shaky Monday night and have a short week, so I moved this up to three, but at 3.5, I'm back in. Take the home dog.
Ravens 29 - 27
MONDAY NIGHT
Lions +11 at Packers
The Lions made a valiant attempt at the greatest backdoor cover in history, but I like the Packers at home off an embarrassing Week 1 loss. Take Green Bay.
Packers 31 - 17
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Last week, I went 7-9 ATS, won my best bet (Browns) and went 3-2 in the SuperContest. Last year my record was 118-130-8, my best bet record was 5-12 and I finished the Supercontest 35-48-2. In 2019, I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2020, I've gone 2,808-2,626 (51.7%), not including ties.
