This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
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I went 5-8-1 last week, which puts me at a whopping 15 games under .500 (this is very hard to achieve, incidentally) and 1-1-1 on best bets which drops those to 4-2-1 on the year. Some of the games are just dumb luck - I won with the Colts on Thursday night but only took them because I assumed Andrew Luck was playing and would have taken the Texans had I known he wasn't and lost a couple where a fumble-TD or pick-six proved the difference. I also went 1-3 on coin flips, continuing the losing streak on games where I have no feel. I did get lucky the Packers covered, the one coin flip game I won.
For this week's slate, I did one thing differently - I looked up the schedule and predicted the scores before even looking at the lines. For some, when I picked obvious underdogs to win outright, I knew which side I was taking ahead of time, but for others, I only found out once I saw the line. Three scores (for Carolina-Seattle, Houston-Jacksonville and NYG-Philly) were pushes, so I had to change them to make a pick.
I have one best bet (and I'm holding my nose as I type this): the Lions. Jim Caldwell and Matthew Stafford are abominable, but I like taking a desperate 0-5 team that made the playoffs last year and nearly beat Seattle in Seattle at
To hear the podcast version, click here. To subscribe, here.
I went 5-8-1 last week, which puts me at a whopping 15 games under .500 (this is very hard to achieve, incidentally) and 1-1-1 on best bets which drops those to 4-2-1 on the year. Some of the games are just dumb luck - I won with the Colts on Thursday night but only took them because I assumed Andrew Luck was playing and would have taken the Texans had I known he wasn't and lost a couple where a fumble-TD or pick-six proved the difference. I also went 1-3 on coin flips, continuing the losing streak on games where I have no feel. I did get lucky the Packers covered, the one coin flip game I won.
For this week's slate, I did one thing differently - I looked up the schedule and predicted the scores before even looking at the lines. For some, when I picked obvious underdogs to win outright, I knew which side I was taking ahead of time, but for others, I only found out once I saw the line. Three scores (for Carolina-Seattle, Houston-Jacksonville and NYG-Philly) were pushes, so I had to change them to make a pick.
I have one best bet (and I'm holding my nose as I type this): the Lions. Jim Caldwell and Matthew Stafford are abominable, but I like taking a desperate 0-5 team that made the playoffs last year and nearly beat Seattle in Seattle at home in a winnable game. Coin flips were: Cincinnati-Buffalo (don't know who's playing QB), Seattle-Carolina, New York-Philadelphia (Giants WR injuries cloud this one) and Indy-New England (Luck's status). Other teams I like are the Saints and Dolphins.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Falcons -3.5 at Saints
The Saints are a joke, but at home and getting the hook against a division rival on a short week, I'm taking them, especially with Julio Jones unlikely to be 100 percent healthy. Back New Orleans.
Falcons 24 - 23
EARLY GAMES
Broncos -4 at Browns
This is a lot like last week's Broncos game in Oakland where the Raiders should have covered but for a pick-six. I'll go back to the well and take the home dog again, as the Broncos offense is terrible right now.
Browns 17 - 16
Bengals -3.5 at Bills
I'd feel a lot better about this line if I knew Tyrod Taylor were playing, but this is a big number on the road against a decent Bills defense. Back Buffalo.
Bengals 24 - 23
Chiefs +4 at Vikings
After a brutal three-game stretch against undefeated teams, the Chiefs blew a home game against the hapless Bears. Still, I think they're roughly equal to the Vikings, and they're getting more than three. Back the Chiefs who bounce back.
Chiefs 20 - 19
Texans -1 at Jaguars
Neither team can play defense, but I'd bet on the Texans turning that around before the Jaguars. And Brian Hoyer seems like an upgrade over Ryan Mallett right now. Back Houston.
Texans 31 - 27
Bears +3 at Lions
The Lions are such an embarrassment, but this was a playoff team last year, they almost beat the Seahawks in Seattle and they have a winnable matchup here against a weak defense. I think they take advantage. Back Detroit.
Lions 24 - 17
Redskins +6 at Jets
The Jets are a decent team this year, but the Redskins have shown up against everyone, and I think they make it competitive. Back Washington.
Jets 19 - 17
Cardinals -3 at Steelers
Chances are Roethlisberger's still a week away, and while I'd like to fade the trendy Cardinals, they should handle the Michael Vick Steelers, irrespective of venue. Back Arizona.
Cardinals 30 - 20
Dolphins +2.5 at Titans
I'm probably an idiot for sticking with the Dolphins after they've played so horribly this year, but I expect a dead-cat bounce now that they've fired Joe Philbin, and the Ken Whisenhunt-led Titans are an easy opponent. Back Miami.
Dolphins 24-20
LATE GAMES
Panthers +7 at Seahawks
This line seems too big, but it's probably about right given the respective situations of the two teams and the venue. I'll take the Panthers because it should be a low-scoring game (O/U is 41), and that spread is a big percentage of the total. Back the Panthers.
Seahawks 23 - 17
Chargers +10.5 at Packers
The Packers used to be automatic at home, but they were lucky to cover against the Rams last week, and I expect the Chargers to move the ball. Green Bay hasn't replaced Jordy Nelson yet, and Eddie Lacy hasn't gotten going. Back San Diego.
Packers 30 - 27
Ravens -2.5 at 49ers
Maybe the Ravens really are bad defensively, and John Harbaugh can't fix it. Still I'll buy low against a 49ers team that looked lost on offense before last week. Back Baltimore.
Ravens 27 - 23
SUNDAY NIGHT
Patriots -7.5 at Colts
This is arguably the season's most interesting game from a handicapping perspective. You have narratives - the Colts snitched on the Patriots re: the delated footballs making Tom Brady's and the team's offseason miserable. Brady already commented after Week 1 that the Colts "got pushed around" by the Bills, and one would think they'd like to score 60 this week to prove that the firmness of the ball had nothing to do with last year's AFC title game blowout. On the other hand, Andrew Luck is one of the league's rising star quarterbacks, off to a slow start and battling an injury. You have to think Indy will be up for this game against the 5-0 Pats in their building. Bottom line, if Luck doesn't play, I want no part of this, but for the third straight week, assuming he's does, I'm taking the Colts. Not only is this a huge line on the road, but Indy without Luck has won three games in a row and doesn't look like a doormat even when Matt Hasselbeck is under center. Back the Colts.
Patriots 40 - 37
MONDAY NIGHT
Giants +4 at Eagles
It's impossible to pick this game not knowing Odell Beckham's (and Rueben Randle's) statuses. As a Giants fan, I'd like to pick them because it reduces rooting conflicts, but my gut says Philly covers this number, especially if Beckham is limited or doesn't play. Back the Eagles.
Eagles 27 - 20
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I went 5-8-1 in Week 5 to bring my record to 30-45-2 on the year. I'm 4-2-1 on best bets. I went 135-116-5 in 2014, and best bets were 18-12-1. From 1999-2014, I've gone 2,068-1,880 (52.4%), not including ties.
