This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
It was a 6-9-1 week, but it was probably worse than that. I got my best bet, the Redskins, totally wrong, and I also liked the Ravens, Lions, Jets and Bengals among others.
This week, I especially like the Eagles, Bears, Rams and Cowboys. Coin flips were the Dolphins/Bills, Colts/Raiders, Bucs/Saints and Cardinals/Seahawks.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Giants -2.5 at Eagles
I set this line at Giants plus 2.5. They're obviously the better team, but I hate taking road teams on a short week, and the Eagles are typically tougher at home. Take the home dog.
Eagles 23 - 17
EARLY GAMES (SATURDAY)
Redskins -3 at Bears
I had this game as a pick 'em. The Redskins laid an egg at home on Monday night and now have to travel on a short week to play a scrappy Bears team. Take the home dog.
Bears 24 - 23
Dolphins +4 at Bills
I wanted to take the Bills, so I made this line three, thinking most people would be on the potentially playoff-bound Dolphins. But apparently I underestimated the Matt Moore effect. I'm taking Miami I guess.
Bills 20 - 19
Falcons -2.5 at Panthers
I made this a pick 'em as the Falcons aren't good defensively, and the Panthers put up a fight against the Redskins on Monday night. Take the home dog.
Panthers 24 - 23
Vikings +6.5 at Packers
This has to be the sucker side, but I made this line 7.5. The Vikings know the Packers well, and their defense could keep it close, but Green Bay's offense has played so much better of late, they're tougher at home and the Vikings offense is largely toothless. Lay the wood.
Packers 27 - 17
Jets +16.5 at Patriots
I accidentally glimpsed this line ahead of time on Twitter, and it sounds about right. I suppose I'll lay the wood with the Pats as they cover 58 percent of the time in the Belichick era, and Vegas hasn't seemed to make the adjustment.
Patriots 34 - 10
Titans -4.5 at Jaguars
I made this line only three, i.e., nine if it were in Tennessee. The Jaguars are bad, but they should move the ball against Tennessee's defense, and the removal of Gus Bradley can only be a positive. Take the points.
Titans 27 - 26
Chargers -6 at Browns
Laying points with the Chargers on the road should be against the law, but facing the Browns might be an affirmative defense. I made this line 7.5, so I'm on the Chargers.
Chargers 30 - 17
LATE GAMES (SATURDAY)
Colts +3.5 at Raiders
I made this line six, assuming the Raiders - fraudulent as they may be - have to be a few points better than the Colts. But Vegas apparently respects Oakland even less than I do, so I'm laying the wood.
Raiders 27 - 20
Buccaneers +3 at Saints
This is where I set the line, and it's pretty much the only place to set it. I'll take the Bucs as I could see either team winning outright fairly easily.
Buccaners 24 - 23
49ers +3.5 at Rams
The 49ers - along with the Browns - are two of the worst teams in recent memory, and the Rams at least have an NFL defense. Part with the points.
Rams 24 - 13
Cardinals +8.5 at Seahawks
This is where I set the line too. The Cardinals are probably the better value, but the Seahawks are so tough at home, and I don't think Carson Palmer's up to the task. Take the Seahawks.
Seahawks 23 - 10
SATURDAY NIGHT
Bengals +2.5 at Texans
I had this line at 3.5 - why would the Bengals be better than the Texans on a neutral field? I suppose A.J. Green being back helps, but I'm still laying the points. Back Houston.
Texans 20 - 17
CHRISTMAS DAY (SUNDAY)
Ravens +5 at Steelers
I set this line at 4.5, which isn't all that different from five, but usually games between these teams are wars, and the coaches and many of the key players know each other well. Expect a close game and take the points.
Steelers 23 - 20
SUNDAY NIGHT
Broncos +4 at Chiefs
I see these as roughly equal teams, and the Broncos are getting more than the standard three. Take the points.
Chiefs 20 - 19
MONDAY NIGHT
Lions +7 at Cowboys
The Lions are in my opinion a league average team, while the Cowboys, despite their recent struggles, are still elite. I made this line 8.5, and I expect Dallas to roll.
Cowboys 31 - 20
I went 6-9-1 in Week 15 to go 107-112-5 on the season. I'm 3-2 on best bets. I went 114-134-8 and 7-9-3 on best bets in 2015. From 1999-2015, I've gone 2,182-2,014 (52%), not including ties.
