Backfield Breakdown: RB Usage Report & Week 7 Waivers Preview

The upcoming waiver runs should be interesting, after Week 6 featured a bunch of breakout performances from running backs, namely Buffalo's Ray Davis and Tampa Bay's Sean Tucker. Both were thrust into the spotlight by teammate injuries, and we're now looking at up to a dozen starting RBs potentially missing games or being limited Week 7.

There are a bunch of other young backs that may (or may not) get similar opportunities soon, including San Francisco's Isaac Guerendo, Jacksonville's Tank Bigsby, Arizona's Trey Benson and Miami's Jaylen Wright. Then we have Big Blue's Tyrone Tracy, who is making a strong case to stay heavily involved even when Devin Singletary is back from his groin injury. You'll find details on all the key injuries and fluctuating roles below, per usual.

Injury Report 🚑

New Injuries

Jordan Mason (AC joint sprain / day-to-day)

Travis Etienne (hamstring / week-to-week)

Jerome Ford (hamstring / week-to-week)

Tyjae Spears (hamstring / week-to-week)

James Conner (ankle / day-to-day) 

Three fantasy-relevant RBs suffered hamstring injuries this past weekend, although each of them already had major issues limiting their value/production. It sounds like they'll all miss some time, with early reports using the week-to-week terminology for Etienne, Ford and Spears. The Titans let Tony Pollard play nearly every snap after Spears' injury, while the Browns divided work between Pierre Strong and D'Onta Foreman, and the Jags had a runner/receiver split between Tank Bigsby and D'Ernest Johnson (with the latter taking far more snaps due to negative game script).

Conner is more of a mystery, as the Cardinals announced an injury. He missed the first drive of the third quarter against Green Bay and was spotted getting his ankle taped while Trey Benson got four carries on the series. Conner then returned for the next drive, but he lost a fumble on his second snap and didn't play for the rest of the game. It's hard to say how much his ankle was a factor vs. the fumble vs. extreme negative game script favoring Emari Demercado's role.

Mason is the only solid fantasy starter with an announced injury this week, and while he briefly returned to Thursday's game in Seattle, he lasted just one snap in the third quarter before exiting for good. Isaac Guerendo and Patrick Taylor split work from that point on, with the former getting more carries but the latter slightly more playing time. Mason has a shot to play Sunday against the Chiefs, albeit with a tough matchup and lingering shoulder injury creating more risk than usual for fantasy managers. He practiced Monday in a no-contact jersey.

Missed Week 6

Brian Robinson (knee / day-to-day)

Devin Singletary (groin / day-to-day)

James Cook (foot / day-to-day)

Rhamondre Stevenson (foot / unclear)

Rachaad White (foot / unclear)

Jonathan Taylor (high ankle / week-to-week)

Zamir White (groin / week-to-week)

Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle / week-to-week)

Eight starting RBs from Week 1 missed Week 6 (including Isiah Pacheco on IR), and we also have Aaron Jones (hip) and De'Von Achane (concussion) coming out of byes with significant injury concerns. Tyrone Tracy, Ray Davis, Bucky Irving, Sean Tucker and Alexander Mattison took advantage of injury-related opportunities to post big fantasy scores Week 6, while Austin Ekeler, Antonio Gibson and Trey Sermon failed to make the most of their extra snaps/touches. It's unclear which of those guys will make additional starts Week 7 and beyond, but it does 

Nick Chubb (PUP - knee / expected to return this week)

Jonathon Brooks (NFI - knee / eligible since Week 5)

Kendre Miller (PUP - hamstring / eligible Week 5)

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (NFI - illness / eligible Week 5)

MarShawn Lloyd (IR - ankle / eligible since Week 6)

Christian McCaffrey (IR - Achilles / out until at least Week 8)

Gus Edwards (ankle / out until at least Week 10)

Isiah Pacheco (fibula / out until at least November)

Chubb has been practicing since Week 5 and is expected to play Sunday against the Bengals. Brooks reportedly will begin practicing this week, which means he should be back Week 8 or 9, although perhaps in a smaller role than most had expected given Chuba Hubbard's continued success in the lead role.

Saints RB Kendre Miller is also said to be ready to play, but it isn't clear where he'll slot in behind Alvin Kamara, competing for depth roles with Jordan Mims and Jamaal Williams (Mims seemingly moved ahead of Williams on Sunday).

Chiefs RB Edwards-Helaire should also be ready from a health standpoint but may not have much of a role now that Kareem Hunt has emerged as a semi-competent lead back for Kansas City (with Samaje Perine in the third-down role). 

There haven't really been updates on Packers RB MarShawn Lloyd, who is eligible to return from IR but also may be without a role even if he's healthy.

Stock Report 📊

A lot of what you'll see here is building on my work from Box Score Breakdown, the weekly recap article with stat tables for every team that include snaps, routes, and target/air-yard shares, in addition to all the basic stats like carries, catches, yards and TDs. I also discuss role specifics and make note of various circumstances that could cause numbers to be misleading, so it's worth checking out if you're looking to go into even more detail on running backs before making waiver adds or lineup decisions for the upcoming week. Unless otherwise specified, all the stats below are from the past week only (full season stats are denoted by 'SZN').

Note: Opps. = carries + targets           

Trending Up 📈

D'Andre Swift - three straight games w/ at least 67% snap share, 20 PPR points, 21 touches

Breece Hall - 86% snaps / 23 of 27 RB opps (152 total yards)

Tony Pollard - 90% snaps post-halftime / 15+ PPR points in four of five games

J.K. Dobbins - 73% snaps / 27 of 35 RB opps (102 total yards + TD)

Chuba Hubbard - season-high 82% snaps / 24 of 28 RB opps (103 total yards)

Alexander Mattison - 68% snaps / 19 of 29 RB opps (65 total yards + TD)

Sean Tucker - 38% snaps / 17 of 33 RB opps (192 total yards + 2 TDs)

Tyrone Tracy - 84% snaps / 23 of 26 RB opps (107 total yards + TD

Ray Davis - 64% snaps / 24 of 29 RB opps (169 total yards)

Tyler Allgeier - 41% snaps / 19 of 38 RB opps (108 total yards + TD)

Kimani Vidal - 24% snaps / 6 of 35 RB opps (51 total yards + TD)

Tyler Goodson - 39% snaps / 13 of 31 RB opps (65 total yards)

D'Ernest Johnson - 57% snaps / 58% routes / 8 of 19 RB opps (44 total yards)

Tucker was a massive surprise as the highest-scoring RB of the week, albeit with his workload somewhat inflated by garbage time (he got six carries for 64 yards and a TD on Tampa Bay's last six snaps). He had 11 touches for 128 yards and a score before that final drive, outplaying Bucky Irving on an afternoon when Irving was also pretty good.

Hall, Pollard and Dobbins are regular starters who got more playing time than usual, either because their backups were injured (Pollard/Dobbins) or their coaches seem to be losing some confidence in the backup (Hall). Swift and Hubbard didn't really take on larger roles but further solidified their strong work from recent weeks.

Trending Down 📉

Travis Etienne - 40% snaps pre-halftime / 3 carries, 1 tgt (-1 total yards)

James Conner - 50% snaps pre-halftime / lost fumble / possible ankle injury

Rico Dowdle - 29% snaps / 11 of 19 RB opps (55 total yards)

Antonio Gibson - 51% snaps w/ Stevenson out / 17 of 27 RB opps

Trey Sermon - 59% snaps w/ Taylor out / 18 of 31 RB opps (29 total yards, no tgts)

Jeremy McNichols - 37% snaps w/ Robinson out / 2 of 16 RB opps (9 total yards)

Miles Sanders - 23% snaps / 4 of 28 RB opps (13 total yards)

Unsettled Backfields 🎲

These are the backfields that need to be monitored closely, where role changes could be imminent or we aren't sure about the team's depth chart moving forward. Backfield with a clear hierarchy/order won't be included unless there's a long-term injury to the starter and the backup situation is uncertain or confusing. 

Messy Backfields

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2. Cincinnati Bengals
3. Dallas Cowboys
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
5. Las Vegas Raiders

Tampa is the big focus this week, as both of the guys filling in for an injured Rachaad White (foot) had big fantasy games in a shootout win at New Orleans. Bucky Irving had already pushed toward a 50/50 split with White in terms of touches, and Sean Tucker's outburst has Bucs coach Todd Bowles talking about a "three-headed monster" in the backfield. There's not much hope for White to maintain fantasy value once he returns, unless either Irving or Tucker suffers an injury. White is probably still the trusted guy for passing situations, but he may be third on the totem pole for carries now.

Chase Brown got more playing time than Zack Moss for the first time this year, taking 91% of snaps after Moss lost a fumble on the opening drive of the second half. That allowed Brown to finish with 13 of the 19 RB opportunities in a low-volume game (52 plays) for the Cincinnati offense. Brown fumbled late in the fourth quarter, but he got lucky when it bounced out of bounds, and he closed out the game with a 30-yard TD just two snaps later. Brown had been outproducing Moss in recent weeks, and it's possible Sunday night's happenings will spark a longer-lasting reversal (i.e., Brown being the lead guy and Moss coming off the bench).

Rico Dowdle seemed to be in good shape after back-to-back games with at least 45% snap share, 12 touches and a TD, but he played only 33% of snaps in the first half of Sunday's loss to Detroit (and then had an even smaller share in the second half of the blowout. Ezekiel Elliott got a team-high eight carries but gained only 17 yards. I expect Dowdle back in the lead role after a Week 7 bye, but it's not a guarantee, and the Cowboys also have been giving Hunter Luepke a lot of snaps as a lone back (almost exclusively on pass plays).

Jacksonville's backfield has been among the most discussed in the league this year, with the speedy Travis Etienne facing competition from second-year breakout Tank Bigsby (a 2023 third-round pick who was awful as a rookie). Both Etienne and Bigsby have dealt with shoulder injuries that limited their playing time, and Etienne then picked up a hamstring injury this past Sunday. Etienne's final snap was the first play of the third quarter, on which he appeared to lose a fumble but had it reversed on review. It's unclear if he injured his hamstring on that play or earlier in the game, but after that point the Jags mostly turned to D'Ernest Johnson, who ended up playing 77% of snaps after halftime. Bigsby will be the lead runner in Etienne's absence, but it looks like Johnson will also get a lot of playing time because he's the one they trust on passing downs. The other question, apart from Bigsby's short-term usage, is what his and Etienne's roles will look like once ETN gets healthy.

The Raiders have featured Alexander Mattison as their lead back with Zamir White (groin) inactive the past two weeks, and there were murmurs that was going to happen anyway even before White's injury was announced. Mattison hasn't been much of an upgrade for the running game, but he's definitely better than White on passing downs and nearly had a two-TD game Sunday against the Steelers (he ran for one score, and had a receiving TD wiped out by a teammate's penalty). Mattison and White are bad enough that you might make an argument for sixth-round rookie Dylan Laube to get a shot... but the Raiders finally let Laube play this past Sunday and he promptly lost a fumble on his first (and only) snap. Talk about a bad start to your NFL career.

On the Brink

1. New York Giants
2. Denver Broncos

Tyrone Tracy has played well enough in Devin Singletary's absence that some are asking if Singletary will still be the starter when he returns. I think he will be – he's a good player – but it might be a 60/40 type deal rather than the 75/25 type split we saw Weeks 1-4 (Singletary played 72% of snap and got 67 opportunities to Tracy's 18 in the first four games). While Tracy is much faster and also more dangerous as a pass catcher, Singletary has a strong reputation for pass blocking and remains above average as a pure runner thanks to his agility and contact balance.

For Denver, Javonte Williams actually just handled his largest snap share (68%) of the season, but with only six carries (plus six targets) in a game that saw the Broncos fall behind 23-0 and ultimately run just 23 plays. There doesn't seem to be much risk of undersized Jaleel McLaughlin taking over, but Sean Payton might eventually give Audric Estime a shot if the running game struggles with Williams as the lead. Williams did have his two best games of the seasons Weeks 4-5, so a change probably isn't imminent. Estime returned from IR this past Sunday and played two snaps, taking carries for 11 and two yards on those plays.

Waivers Look-Ahead ±

If you're looking for a more comprehensive waivers article, RW's Kevin Payne has you covered. Here we're just taking a quick look at some RBs to target based on the work contained in this article and Monday's Box Score Breakdown. 

In order to qualify, the RB needs to be rostered in no more than 60 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Potential Short-Term Starters

1. Tyrone Tracy - 45%
2. Ray Davis - 10%
3. Ty Chandler - 27%
4. Alexander Mattison - 51%
5. Isaac Guerendo - 4%
6. Antonio Gibson - 50% 
7. Trey Sermon - 50% 
8. Jaylen Wright - 9%
9. D'Ernest Johnson - 0% 
10. Tyler Goodson - 4%
11. Justice Hill - 25%
12. Emari Demercado - 0%
13. Ameer Abdullah - 1%

Mattison is probably the safest option if you absolutely need a Week 7 starter but don't need RB help otherwise (for whatever reason), but for nearly all fantasy managers it would probably be smarter to take a shot on the rookies (Tracy/Davis) if you can get their hands on them. James Cook and Devin Singletary aren't going to disappear entirely, but they aren't in the class of RBs that's too good to be usurped by a young standout. Plus, it's not clear if Cook or Singletary will return from their injuries this week, and the performance of their backups could inspire more caution from their respective teams.

Ty Chandler is another good option, with Aaron Jones (hip) uncertain to play coming out of a bye and the Vikings otherwise limited to Myles Gaskin in their backfield. Chandler struggles to run between the tackles, but he's very fast and a capable pass catcher. His role after Jones' injury Week 5 in London hints at a solid RB2 projection if/when Jones misses time.

Jordan Mason seems less likely than Jones to be out this week, but Guerendo is worth adding in case that's wrong, as anyone making an RB start under Kyle Shanahan belongs in fantasy lineups. Just keep in mind that Patrick Taylor got a bunch of playing time after Mason's exit Thursday, so we're probably not talking about Guerendo fully replacing Mason's massive role/usage.

Bench Stashes

1. Tyler Allgeier - 30%
2. Kimani Vidal - 11%
3. Sean Tucker - 1%
4. Trey Benson -19%
5. Blake Corum - 15%
6. Braelon Allen - 47%
7. Emanuel Wilson - 12%
8. Jaylen Warren - 42%
9. Dameon Pierce - 6%
10. Roschon Johnson - 26%
11. Audric Estime - 2%
12. Khalil Herbert - 8%
13. Pierre Strong - 0%
14. MarShawn Lloyd - 5% (IR)
15. Kendre Miller - 6%

Benson is the sneaky option here, as he's a strong prospect behind a starter (James Conner) who isn't playing up to his usual standards and may now be dealing with an ankle injury. Benson moves from the 'stash' list to the 'possible starter' list if Conner misses practice Wednesday and Thursday. Miami's Jaylen Wright is another in-between case; definitely worthy of a bench stash in medium/deep leagues, plus there's some chance at a significant role (depending on De'Von Achane's progress through concussion protocol).

Last but not least we have Sean Tucker, who should be added in all leagues but probably shouldn't be started in a tough matchup with Baltimore unless there's some kind of solid report that the Bucs are installing him ahead of Bucky Irving (which doesn't seem too likely given that Irving is playing pretty well). 

Drop Candidates

1. Rachaad White - 88% (shallow leagues)
2. Jerome Ford - 75% (shallow leagues)
3. Tyjae Spears - 62% (shallow leagues)
4. Zamir White - 41%
5. Gus Edwards - 23%
6. Cam Akers - 18%
7. Samaje Perine - 9%
8. Carson Steele - 8%
9. Dare Ogunbowale - 5%
10. Jamaal Williams - 3%