College Football Picks: Oregon vs USC Team Best Bets
The No. 7 Oregon Ducks (9-1, 6-1 conf.) will host the No. 15 USC Trojans (8-2, 6-1 conf.) in a game that has massive playoff ramifications. Since Indiana and Ohio State are unlikely to stumble and will meet in the CFP Championship game, both the Ducks and Trojans are trying to make the case for an at-large bid. Two Big Ten teams are locks to make the playoff, but one of these teams will need to seal a convincing win to justify a third team's entry into the bracket.
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Oregon vs USC Betting Odds for Week 13
Spread: Oregon -10 (Caesars Sportsbook), USC +10.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 59.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook), Under 59.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Oregon -370 (FanDuel Sportsbook), USC +320 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Overwhelming public money began flowing into Oregon early in the week, sending the spread up by 4 points. It seems to have stabilized over the past 24 hours, but late bettors could see a one-point deviation in either direction. There's little incentive to pursue the moneyline unless you're high on a USC upset. The Over/Under lines are interesting spots to consider, and they've remained static throughout the week.
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Oregon vs USC Betting Picks for Week 13
Let's begin by exploring how these offenses have performed recently. After a couple of regressive contests, the Oregon offense roared back to life with a 42-13 victory over Minnesota. USC played an incredibly tough Iowa defense in poor weather conditions to prevail in a 26-21 game, keeping them in the CFP playoff hunt. We can actually use Iowa as a barometer since both teams battled Iowa recently.
Both teams struggled against the Hawkeyes, but USC had more success in the passing game and did so in inclement weather. Both squads struggled in the run game against Iowa. The key takeaway from this comparison is how well the teams perform against superior defenses. On paper, there's no question that the Ducks are the superior defense in this matchup. They are ranked sixth nationally in Opponent Points Allowed.
They are also lethal on the defensive edge and have racked up sacks against the opposition. They lack depth at cornerback and in the secondary, but they are still certainly above average. USC's defense took a step forward this season, but it's still a porous unit, especially on the road. They're currently allowing road opponents 396 yards per game, and both of their losses came on the road against Illinois and Notre Dame.
Offensively, both teams are much more even. The Ducks are very deep at running back, and they'll rotate liberally to keep everyone fresh. That spells trouble for the Trojans, who have allowed several breakaway plays to the opposition and have shown trouble in forcing offenses off the field.
USC achieves its best success by outscoring opponents, as its high-octane passing game and balanced rushing attack form one of the best offensive units in the country. USC's offense could be the season's most challenging test for Oregon, aside from Indiana, but Oregon's defense could neutralize them. I can envision several outcomes for this game's final score, but I think the best bet is to take the Over. Oregon averages 36.8 points per game, and USC averages 38.2 points per game, and there's obvious potential for both teams to meet or exceed these totals.
Oregon vs USC Expert Pick: OVER 59.5 (BetMGM)
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Oregon vs USC Predictions for Week 13
At quarterback, Dante Moore and Jayden Maiava are evenly matched, although both quarterbacks have their respective strengths and weaknesses. Maiava has been more successful in creating plays out of the pocket, and has one of the best wide receiver duos in the country in Makai Lemon and Ja'Kobi Lane. While Oregon usually has a talented receiving group, Dakorien Moore (knee) and Gary Bryant (ankle) are questionable to play, and both are leaning toward missing the game. Tight end Kenyon Sadiq has stepped things up during these absences, but we should expect the length of Moore's successful catches to drop. The Ducks will lean on Noah Whittington and Jordon Davison, and the duo will likely represent the most successful component of Oregon's offense.
Can the offensive lines keep things up? Both teams have allowed very few sacks, but the mobility of both quarterbacks has contributed to their success. The game will come down to the war in the trenches. The offensive line that can protect the quarterback and make more holes for the run game will prevail. These offenses are too potent to be contained consistently, so expect a big total in the gene.
Oregon 38, USC 27
Oregon vs USC Player Props for Saturday, November 22
Jordon Davison OVER 0.5 Touchdowns (Sleeper)
Davison's role has expanded, but his success began as the team's goal-line option. Not much has changed, as they still opt for the freshman in short yardage. He has one of the best touchdown totals in the country, and he has the potential to top off at least one drive.
Dante Moore UNDER 240.5 Passing + Rushing Yards (PrizePicks)
Several Moore-related props interest me, but this is probably my favorite. Limited passing targets and USC's general success against mobile quarterbacks back this pick, but I would also investigate an Over on interceptions thrown and an Under on pass attempts.
