This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Louisville vs. NC State Betting Odds and Best Bets
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The Cardinals travel to Raleigh to face the Wolfpack in their third conference game of September. They sit at 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS after last week's blowout of Boston College. The over has hit in three of their four games, thanks to an offense that's twice scored 56 points, one that also scored 39 in their opener against Georgia Tech. The Wolfpack again failed to impress last week at Virginia, scoring 24 points for the third time in three games against FBS competition. They're 3-1 SU, but 0-4 ATS with their game totals going an interesting 1-2-1.
Louisville vs. NC State Betting Odds for Week 5
Spread: Louisville -3.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: 55.5 (Caesar's Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Louisville -175 (BetMGM); North Carolina State +160 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Louisville opened as 2.5 favorites Sunday night, and it's slowly been bet up to its current 3.5 number that we're seeing at all books across the board.
Despite the symmetry with the spread, moneyline odds are all over the place. DraftKings has the Cardinals as high as -192, while the Wolfpack sit at +145 at BetMGM. These numbers have moved pretty dramatically, too, opening at -155 and +130, respectively.
The total has been pretty rock solid since Sunday, sitting right where it started. It briefly dipped to 55.0, which can be found at a few other books, but it's universally at its opening number and a standard -110 on both sides everywhere.
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Louisville vs. NC State Betting Picks for Week 5
This is a pretty big spot for both teams. Louisville has a shot to start 3-0 in conference before the first month of the season closes, while the Wolfpack will look to protect their home field and earn what would be their best win to date. Getting points at home feels like a winning proposition, especially sitting at the magic number over a field goal. And to that point, backing the Wolfpack on the moneyline has ample appeal and value.
But at some point, the Wolfpack are going to have to make us believers before they earn our trust. The offense simply isn't there. Scoring 24 points on Notre Dame is fine, but getting that number against UConn and UVA? Not great. They can't run the ball effectively, and it allows them to be easily defended. Conversely, I don't think we've seen enough to feel confident about the Cardinals either, especially on the road. They needed a big second half to put up big points against Georgia Tech in a neutral spot, labored against Indiana, and then blew out Boston College, a predictable outcome in a letdown spot for the Eagles after a narrow miss against Florida State. This is their first true road game, and nights at Carter-Finley Stadium aren't hospitable. As such, I can't confidently back either side.
So, let's examine the total. In last week's preview, the more I wrote, the more the conclusion was to back the under, but I didn't trust myself. Here's to not overcorrecting! For better or worse, we should feel confident in the Wolfpack not blowing up offensively and giving the total a significant boost. They haven't done so all year. Louisville scored only 21 points against Indiana, which is likely the best defense they've faced until now. The Wolfpack are opportunistic in the secondary, allowing a decent chunk of 8.1 ypa, but a 7:4 TD:INT ratio. But they're allowing just 3.7 ypc on the ground and have 11 sacks and 23 tackles for loss through four games. They're only path here is limiting possessions, keeping things slow and close into the fourth quarter, and taking points when available. The implied final is 29.5-26.0, and I have a hard time seeing either side getting to those numbers.
Louisville vs. NC State Best Bet: Under 55.5 points (Caesars Sportsbook)
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Louisville vs. NC State Predictions for Week 5
We're at a point where we think we've seen enough of the Wolfpack not to be believers. We're not there yet with Louisville, so it's entirely possible this is a statement game for the Cardinals; they hit big plays and win this going away, as NC State can't keep up. But at home, I like the Wolfpack to contain Cardinals' RB Jawhar Jordan enough to force some errant throws from Jack Plummer, who's been picked off four times thus far.
With no run game to speak of, I do worry about the Wolfpack's ability to play ball control with sustained drives. But a few chunk passing plays to Kevin Concepcion are in store to keep this close. They'll ride their defense to keep this close into the fourth quarter, where the outcome will remain in doubt. Their only chance is low scoring, and they'll do just enough there to have a shot but ultimately come up short. LOUISVILLE 27-24.
