College Football Picks This Week: Week 1 Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Published on September 1, 2022

College Capper: College Football 1 Betting Breakdown

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Chris' Picks

A 3-2 week to open works terrifically for me, given how limited the options were and how much I forced picks/content. Maybe that just shows how truly random this is, and a 55-60 percent win clip is a tremendous season.

Unlike last week, Week 1 has so many choices I'm struggling to pare it down. If it's not a winning week, it's my fault for choosing poorly. Will wrap this column up with a few picks that missed the cut, just for entertainment.

TCU (-13.5) at Colorado (Friday)

This line has moved immensely, opening at (-8.5), but I may feel comfortable at anything around three touchdowns, let alone two. Neither team has settled on a QB and are both expected to play two, but TCU's two offer veteran presence or dual-threat capabilities. Colorado went 4-7 last season and their best player is now at Michigan State. How exactly are they to improve on the 18.8 ppg they averaged last year? Perhaps from playing a Horned Frog defense that allowed 461.8 ypg last year? I'm not buying it. TCU's offense is good enough to cover this under Sonny Dykes' scheme, and the coaching upgrades will have the defense playing at least at a serviceable level.

North Carolina (-1.5) at Appalachian State

This line has been dancing all week, so shopping is encouraged. It opened around (-3) for the Heels, but I've seen some spots where the Mountaineers have been favored. I think this is a nice value for UNC with some Week 0 overreaction as they struggled to put away undermanned FAMU. There's certainly concerns about the Heels' defense, and Appy State will score their fair share. But I don't trust their QB Chase Brice to win this game. He's turnover prone against Power 5 opponents. Meanwhile, UNC QB Drake Maye looks like a budding star. We're not asking for more than a UNC win in all likelihood. Kidd Brewer Stadium will be rocking, but across four quarters, UNC prevails.

Louisville (-4) at Syracuse

This game reeks of a trap, but I'm in anyway. Louisville won 40-3 against the Orange last season, and all reports are star QB Malik Cunningham will be a better passer in 2022. The lower spread seems to be a result of Syracuse hiring offensive coordinator Robert Anae, who was at Virginia previously and put up 34 points on this defense last season. And while he may have a quarterback that's capable, and may also have one of the ACC's best running backs in Sean Tucker, the 'Cute have a big-time void at wide receiver. Points will come freely, and the Cardinals will get more of them.

LSU (-3) vs. Florida State (Sunday, New Orleans)

This is a rare spot where I'm fading a team that played in Week 0. There are a ton of unknowns on both sides, but I find LSU to be at least closer to a reload situation while Florida State is just hoping to step forward in a rebuild. LSU's offensive line is a concern, but the combination of QB Jayden Daniels and WR Kayshon Boutte gives the Tiger offense elite talent that FSU can't match. I'm not sure which, if any, Seminole offensive lineman would start at any top-end ACC school, and we've seen countless times where big-name ACC teams are blitzed by mediocre SEC schools in the trenches. I'm huge on LSU defensive lineman Maason Smith. He's going to create turnovers here, leading LSU to a comfortable win.

Clemson (-22) vs. Georgia Tech (Monday, Atlanta)

I absolutely loathe that this line has pushed over the three-touchdown threshold. But holding off could push it into the 24-point range, which may be uncomfortable given Clemson's offensive struggles last season. But I just don't see how Georgia Tech scores, like maybe not at all. They've scored 14, seven and eight points in their last three meetings with Clemson. The Tigers have an elite front, and the Jackets don't have weapons to challenge the rebuilding secondary. DJ Uiagalelei will show improvement, and I think the Tigers win by enough to get Cade Klubnik some snaps, which means Clemson won't fully call conservative plays while he gets reps. 30-7 works just fine at the current odds.

Also considered: West Virginia (+7.5), WVU/Pitt under 51.5, Missouri (-20.5) Temple (+7), Illinois (+2), Houston (-4), Arkansas (-6.5), Middle Tennessee State (+6.5)

Last week: 3-2; Season 3-2

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GREG'S PICKS

After a dreadful start to this past season, I can't explain how good it feels to get off a 3-0 start this season. I won't however put too much importance on a perfect week 0 because a lot of what happens prior to getting your eyes on these teams is luck. Yeah, I did my research, just like I do every week, but anything can happen the first time these players get in a real game after an offseason.

The only thing better than going 3-0 is doing so with ease. The first win was the over in the Nebraska game. Yeah, I know, that game got a lot of attention for other reasons, but what I found most interesting was the fact that Northwestern has a functioning offense this season. The second win was just as easy as UConn was well within the number the entire game. The third win was easy as well as Vanderbilt opened up the offense and pushed the game over the total in the 3rd quarter.

All lines courtesy of draftkings.com

Over 46 Illinois at Indiana

Stay with me as we go all the way back to…this past week. Remember how the total in the Northwestern game was sub-50, due in large part to how bad the Wildcat offense was this past season? Yeah, well teams actually put in work in the off season and try to improve upon their areas of need. Just as the 'Cats showed improvement this past week, I'm expecting the same from the Hoosiers. If you recall, both teams entered this past season with high expectations and fell flat. Now both teams enter this season low expectations, so guess what will probably happen?

Michigan (-30.5) vs Colorado State

This is a spot where timing appears to be to our advantage. Colorado State has a lot of new parts, including the coaching staff and while most reports indicate the Rams should be better this season, it will likely take a while for everything to jell. Michigan on the other hand is ready to roll; yes, the Wolverines lost a lot of talent, but all the better teams lose talent to the NFL each year and most of them rebuild quickly. What I like most about this game is that Michigan not only has the running game to roll-up the score, but it also has two QBs which need as many reps as possible, so we could see the Wolverines airing it out well into the 4th quarter.

Buffalo +24 at Maryland

There was a considerable amount of hype surrounding Maryland and its do-everything QB Taulia Tagovailoa entering this past season and the end result was 6-6 season. The hype machine is back up and running again this season and I guess I'm just going to wait until I see it from this team. Buffalo is generally one of the better teams from the MAC and one thing the Bulls have seemingly always done well is run the ball. The start will be very important here as if Buffalo can get off to a good start, the Bulls can then play some ball control and milk this clock.

Over 59 Notre Dame at Ohio State

Ohio State struggled a bit out of the gate this past season and its defense never really resembled a top-notch defense, but after a few weeks, that offense was almost unstoppable. The Buckeyes lost some pieces to the NFL from that offense, but there's no reason to think they won't be just as explosive this season. Notre Dame has plenty of firepower as well and the Fighting Irish should be able to keep up with OSU…until they can't and then the Buckeyes might just pour it on. Either way, close game or not, both teams are going to score enough to get this number over the total.

Over 67.5 Western Kentucky at Hawaii

Let's just keep it here and see if we've got a trend we can run with for a while. Hawaii was non-existent on defense this past week and now it gets, what should be a more explosive offense coming to town. Let's not forget also that Hawaii went well over the total this past week while only contributing 10 points of its own. The Rainbows are bound to get going on offense at some point and WKU has never really been a rock on defense, so this has all the makings of a back-and-forth game with WKU pulling away eventually.

Last Week: 3-0-0, Last Season: 3-0-0

Be sure to check out our college football custom rankings and our player rankings cheat sheet for up-to-date season-long rankings, as well as our college football weekly rankings to help guide your lineup decisions. During the season, our college football DFS optimizer and value report are powerful tools to help build DFS lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.