College Football DFS: SMU at UCF Showdown and Single-Game Picks and Strategy

College Football DFS Picks: SMU at UCF Showdown and Single-Game Plays and Strategy

This week marks the first week that we will feature a single-game contest, so a primer on the differences between the two sites and some basic strategies will accompany our analysis.

SLATE OVERVIEW

Central Florida (-3) vs. SMU O/U: 63.5

Let's first keep in mind how each site tackles the single-game format.

DRAFTKINGS: 1 CAPTAIN (1.5x) 5 UTIL, $8,333 median salary 

FANDUEL: 1 MVP (1.5x) 4 FLEX $12,000 median salary

The salaries for players are inflated for single-game contests, and with the reduced number of available spots, FanDuel is arguably the more difficult challenge. The major difference between the two sites is how they price the UTIL/FLEX spots.  FanDuel keeps the salaries static for both positions, while DraftKings INFLATES the CPT salaries by 50 percent. Moreso than the NFL, utilizing the quarterbacks will yield more success in a single-game format. Additionally, if there are no injury spots to exploit, finding a lower-cost upside wide receiver in one slot is the best way to stay under the salary cap. Another less pertinent difference - DraftKings allows for kickers to be rostered, while FanDuel does not include them. 

We aren't going to dig into great detail about the players and reasons for their endorsement because it isn't essential.  Our selection is naturally limited, and single-game formats are less nuanced. Think of a classic format like a term paper, and a single game contest as a math test. It's more about fitting the top of the pool with the right assortment of budget calls.

My personal preference is to play head-to-head or 3-player contests in a single-game format. GPPs are fine, but you will almost always contend with a lot of identical lineups, thus diluting the top prize.

College Football DFS Tools

• DraftKings Lineup Optimizer
• NEW Matchups Page (Vegas odds, opponent averages, etc.)
• Advanced Lineups Page
• Stats
• Team Trends
• Targets
• Defense vs. Position
• Team Rankings
• Advanced Team Stats

Matchup Info

MVP/Captain DFS Picks

John Rhys Plumlee, UCF (DK CPTN $16,900,DK UTIL $10.600, FD $17,000)

Tanner Mordecai, SMU (DK CPTN $13,800, DK UTIL $9,200, FD $16,500)

Rashee Rice, SMU (DK CPTN $15,300, DK UTIL $10,200, FD $15,000)

It's preferable to find space for all three of these players somewhere on your roster, but at first glance, it seems that a Mordecai/Rice stack is the best avenue to get the maximum from this list. UCF spreads the ball around quite a bit, but Rice is the unquestioned target beast for the Mustangs. I think it's wiser to fade Plumlee and select Mordecai or Rice in the top spot. Going this way will also leave you more room to maneuver in the UTIL/FLEX spots. I would utilize the one you don't use at the top in one of the additional slots.

DFS UTIL/FLEX  Core Candidates

RB Isaiah Bowser, UCF (DK $7,400, FD $13,000)

WR Javon Baker, UCF (DK $8,200, FD $10,000)

WR Jake Bailey, SMU (DK $7,000, FD $10,600)

If you're attempting to stuff all three MVP candidates into your roster, you'll probably only have room for one of these players. Bowser is the more cost-effective play for DraftKings, while Baker is more appropriately priced on FanDuel. You are also getting Bailey at a good discount in DK, so you may be able to find space there with the additional spot. 

UTIL/FLEX BUDGET PLAYS

RB Tre Siggers, SMU (DK ONLY $6,600)

WR Johnny Richardson, UCF (DK $5,600, FD $8,500)

RB Velton Gardner, SMU (DK $3,600, FD $7,000)

I'm selecting Gardner as the linchpin for the optimal lineup. He gets enough touches to be relevant, and since the wide assortment of UCF wideouts are priced much higher, our ability to use them as fliers is less likely. Gardner will get you much closer to a Mordecai/Plumlee/Rice/Siggers combo, and if you exclude one of them, you can probably fit Richardson in as well. Gardner isn't really necessary on FanDuel, because you're more likely to exclude one quarterback anyway. Beyond these three picks, you are more likely to find the aforementioned UCF wideouts littered about on both sites, and they can offer you some uniqueness.