This article is part of our CFL Picks series.
CFL Betting: CFL Bets and Props for Week 6
We have another pair of eye-catching CFL weekend games on the Week 6 slate, the first a showdown between the top two teams in the West Division and the second featuring an Elks team that seems to be better than its 0-4 mark and is desperate for its first win.
We break down one best bet to consider for each of the two contests.
Roughriders vs Lions Best Bets (Saturday, July 13, 7:00 p.m. ET)
The Roughriders have exceeded expectations by opening the season 4-0, and notably keeping that record unblemished despite being without Trevor Harris (knee) for the last one-plus games. Saskatchewan has gotten serviceable play from Shea Patterson under center thus far, but they've also benefited from outstanding run defense that has led to Saskatchewan allowing a league-low 46 rushing yards per contest and 3.6 yards per carry overall.
However, it's also worth noting the Riders have benefited tremendously from their schedule – they've faced the winless Elks and Tiger-Cats in three of their first four games. Naturally, Saskatchewan has had a hand in the futility of the clubs by defeating them, but the Riders have allowed at least 20 points in every contest despite the lower caliber of competition.
Corey Mace's club now faces a challenge unlike what they've seen to this point, as the Lions' offense has been a juggernaut that's been spearheaded by Vernon Adams. B.C. boasts a league-high 423 yards per game of net offense and is averaging a league-best 7.5 yards per play. The Lions have also amassed a league-high 118 first downs, and for his part, Adams owns an 11:1 TD:INT and has thrown for over 330 yards in three of his first four games.
Because the Riders have done so well against the run and have been successful at establishing leads, they've faced the fewest number of rush attempts (51); however, teams have also had success throwing against them, with Saskatchewan allowing a league-high 313 passing yards per game. That's a particularly worrisome metric when facing Adams, who could also get Keon Hatcher (IR-Achilles) on the field for the first time this season.
The Lions are at home, where they're 2-0. They're also over a touchdown favorite, a line I'm not necessarily comfortable in betting but which does underscore how clear of an advantage oddsmakers seem to feel they have. Therefore, I like the idea of combining a bet on an outright Lions win and another productive night for Adams in a game where he could be leaned on even more than usual.
CFL Picks for Roughriders vs Lions
- SGP: Lions moneyline and Vernon Adams 300+ passing yards (-145 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Redblacks vs Elks Best Bets (Sunday, July 14, 7:00 p.m. ET)
The Elks have gotten the McLeod Bethel-Thompson era off to a rough start, but despite their 0-4 record, they've been very competitive. Edmonton has only a -17-point differential, corroborating they've been more of a hard-luck club than an incompetent one.
Edmonton had an eight-point loss to the still undefeated Roughriders in Week 1 and then suffered three consecutive three-point defeats. What's more, two of those narrow stumbles came at the hands of the defending champion and now 5-0 Alouettes and the 4-1 Lions. Bethel-Thompson has completed 71.1 percent of his passes and already has a trio of 300-yard tallies, showing good chemistry with his new, talented group of pass catchers.
Meanwhile, the Redblacks are 2-2 but actually have a -29-point differential. Both of their losses have come on the road as well, and Ottawa is averaging the second-fewest points per game (21.0) and has scored a league-low seven touchdowns on offense. What's more, the Redblacks are tied with multiple teams for most turnovers committed (nine) despite having played just four games.
The Elks' defense is about average in most categories through the first four games, but the Redblacks' offensive struggles should help Edmonton raise its level of play, especially on its home field. It's also worth noting Ottawa has been prone to giving up big passing plays downfield – the Redblacks are tied for second-most completions of 30+ yards allowed (seven) – while Bethel-Thompson has been one of the CFL's better deep passers early this season by completing 13 of 25 attempts of 20+ yards downfield for 369 yards and three TDs.
The records of these two teams could easily be reversed if one looks at the surrounding metrics. Consequently, I'm in the camp of the Elks finally breaking the ice this season and covering the line.
CFL Picks for Redblacks vs Elks
- Elks -3.5 (-110 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
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CFL Week 6 Best Bets Recap
- SGP: Lions moneyline and Vernon Adams 300+ passing yards (-145 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Elks -3.5 (-110 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
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