This article is part of our College Hoops Best Bets series.
With a huge Saturday slate for college basketball on tap, my colleague John Cox and I will bring our selections for some of the more notable games over the weekend, along with a few mid-major selections that might surprise you. We will be bringing you what we think the best angle is to attack games such as No. 11 Louisville at No. 12 Miami, No. 4 Oklahoma at No. 25 Texas and also a few games that might be off your viewing radar.
If you happen to catch the first article we released for Wednesday's slate you were rewarded by going 2-1 with plus-3 units in profit. We nailed the two games in the MVC with Illinois St. (-5) putting a whopping on their in-state rival Southern Illinois and Wichita St. (-12) handling business on the road against Chicago-Loyola for two units each. SIU took the first lead in the game by hitting a three early, however, it was a gambler's dream after that with the Redbirds going on a 20-2 run, leading 36-15 at half and finishing the game strong with a final score of 73-50. In the other MVC game, the Shockers took control early and steadily wore down the Ramblers as the game went on, pulling out a 76-54 victory.
Our one loss came with Villanova (+1). I had said I thought Villanova was the better team, plain and simple, and I will admit that I was wrong. One good thing is we had this as only
With a huge Saturday slate for college basketball on tap, my colleague John Cox and I will bring our selections for some of the more notable games over the weekend, along with a few mid-major selections that might surprise you. We will be bringing you what we think the best angle is to attack games such as No. 11 Louisville at No. 12 Miami, No. 4 Oklahoma at No. 25 Texas and also a few games that might be off your viewing radar.
If you happen to catch the first article we released for Wednesday's slate you were rewarded by going 2-1 with plus-3 units in profit. We nailed the two games in the MVC with Illinois St. (-5) putting a whopping on their in-state rival Southern Illinois and Wichita St. (-12) handling business on the road against Chicago-Loyola for two units each. SIU took the first lead in the game by hitting a three early, however, it was a gambler's dream after that with the Redbirds going on a 20-2 run, leading 36-15 at half and finishing the game strong with a final score of 73-50. In the other MVC game, the Shockers took control early and steadily wore down the Ramblers as the game went on, pulling out a 76-54 victory.
Our one loss came with Villanova (+1). I had said I thought Villanova was the better team, plain and simple, and I will admit that I was wrong. One good thing is we had this as only a one-unit play. Xavier came out swinging to take down the No. 1 ranked Wildcats lead by strong guard play of Myles Davis and Edmond Sumner. Davis looked like the clear cut leader on the team, slowing the game down when he had to, pushing the pace when it was there and drilling some huge threes. Sumner was very impressive with his ability to get past his defender and get into the paint at will, not only did he drop 19 points, but he also had a season-high nine assists.
Louisville at Miami - O/U 135.5
108 and 118. Those are the totals of the last two games between these teams While that's not the end-all be-all, and it's not always wise to use last year's results as an indicator of future performance, I think this is a situation with some merit. Miami's roster is largely unchanged, and their KenPom metrics mirror last season's in terms of pace, offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency. The Cardinals sport the No. 1 defense in the country in addition to an offense that is prone to lengthy scoring droughts. The Hurricanes are not afraid to slow down the tempo and work the ball in the half court. Louisville's defense is designed to slow down opponents once they get into the half court, ranking 13th in the ACC in length of defensive possessions, while Miami checks in at 10. I anticipate this will be a half-court game with long possessions and tough, contested shots on both ends.
Pick: Under 135.5, two units
Illinois St. at Wichita St (-15.5)
The two teams that we had as winners square off this week in Charles Koch Arena, one of the most hostile environments in all of basketball. Looking to start off 3-0 in the MVC, I am going right back to the Shockers minus the points. Since having their first home lost in over three seasons, this team is motivated more than ever. Fred Van Vleet and Ron Baker make up arguably the best back court in all of college basketball and this will be their last game ever playing in the Koch Arena. I see these two stars going out with a bang and putting on a show to cap off what has been a few magnificent careers in Wichita.
Pick Wichita St. -15.5, three units
Oklahoma (-1) at Texas
These teams squared off roughly three weeks ago in a tightly contested battle that ended with a Buddy Hield dagger. For the most part, Texas was in control of the game, going into the second half with a nine-point advantage. Oklahoma possesses some serious firepower on the perimeter, but they are team that lives and dies by the three. 41.1 percent of Oklahoma's points come from the three-point line, which leads the conference. In Oklahoma's last three losses, they've shot a combined 22-79 from deep (28 percent). The key to beating Oklahoma is to neutralize the three-point line and Texas has done an outstanding job in Big 12 play at defending the deep ball. Texas is first in the conference in three-point defense, they're first in limiting three-point attempts, and they only allow 22.8 percent of their points threes, good for 10th-fewest in the conference. Clearly, Texas defends the three-point line extremely well, and also do a good enough job rebounding the basketball.
Pick: Texas +1, two units
Gonzaga at BYU (-2.5)
This line opened at -1 and has slowly gone down. BYU is a team that loves to run and gun, putting up points in bunches. Surprisingly, the Cougars boast the best defensive efficiency rating in the MWC. I think the key here is that BYU's guard play is superior to the Zags' guards. Kris Collinsworth, who should be in consideration for the national player of the year, is a do-it-all guard who has five triple-doubles this season. Gonzaga's Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis are two highly talented big men inside, but mark my words, Collinsworth will be the best player on the floor. This game has a big impact on the seeding for the MWC tournament, as both the Zags and Cougars are tied for second with a 14-4 record in conference. Look for BYU to use the home-court advantage to come away with the victory here.
Pick: BYU -2.5, one unit
All lines were taken from VegasInsider.
