NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Preview: South Region

South Region Sweet 16 Preview
East Region Sweet 16 Preview
Midwest Region Sweet 16 Preview
West Region Sweet 16 Preview

Site: Dallas, Texas

Tip-off: Friday

Cinderella is alive and well in the South, as the lowest remaining seed in the tournament resides in this region.  No. 11 NC State continued its magical run following capturing the ACC Tournament crown with victories over No. 6 Texas Tech and fellow underdog No. 14 Oakland.

While round one provided plenty of upsets and fireworks, other than the Wolfpack, the remainder of the region held true to form in the second round.  NC State will face an overlooked No. 2 Marquette squad that held off a feisty Colorado in the second round.  The Golden Eagles have advanced to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2013.

Meanwhile, No. 1 Houston blew a double-digit lead Sunday against No. 9 Texas A&M, only to stave off the Aggies in overtime.  The Cougars can breathe a little easier for now, except when they begin to prepare for perennial contender Duke.  The Blue Devils were a lower seed than usual this March at No. 4, but had no trouble dispatching of two double-digit seeds in the form of Vermont and then James Madison.  Duke vanquished the Dukes in round two by a staggering score of 93-55.

With the matchups in the South now set, let's take a deeper look at the upcoming games.

No. 1 Houston vs. No. 4 Duke

Key Matchup: Houston's Jamal Shead versus Duke's Jeremy Roach.  Shead has been to the Sweet 16 all four years during his time with the Cougars.  Roach, meanwhile, is often overlooked but has started 106 games during his collegiate career at Duke.  Shead does most of his offensive damage from inside the three-point arc, while Roach has developed into a dynamite three-point shooter, canning a career-best 43.8 percent of his three-pointers as a senior.  Shead has been more impactful as a facilitator than a scorer thus far this tournament, though that may change as the pressure increases.  If Roach can hold his own in this matchup with Shead, that could go a long way towards helping the Blue Devils.  However, the best from Shead may still be to come.

Houston will Win IF: the Cougars hit at least 30 percent of their three-point attempts.  In their four losses this season, Houston combined to hit 20 treys, shooting an abysmal 23.8 percent combined from long distance.  Defense travels, but sometimes, Houston's shooting does not.  The Cougars were 171st in the country in scoring this season.  If Houston is to advance, the backcourt triumvirate of LJ Cryer, Emanuel Sharp and Jamal Shead needs to have efficient performances, especially from beyond the arc.

Duke will Win IF: the Blue Devils value the basketball.  Houston has the top-ranked scoring defense in the country, forcing an impressive 29 turnovers over their first two games of the tournament.  The Blue Devils are not a particularly turnover-prone bunch, residing in the top-15 in the nation in fewest turnovers committed per game.  However, being careless with the ball would likely spell doom for Duke, allowing Houston to get easy buckets while also setting the tone defensively.

Player to Watch: Kyle Filipowski, C, Duke.  The Cougars do not have a player taller than 6-9.  Filipowski, meanwhile, is a seven-footer who also happens to be the leading scorer and rebounder for the Blue Devils.  He was not needed much in two blowouts wins for the Dukies, but rest assured he will play huge minutes in this contest.  Houston was manhandled on the glass by Texas A&M, losing the rebounding battle 49-35.  The Cougars also had massive foul woes; Houston's entire starting five nearly fouled out; senior J'Wan Roberts was the only starter left, and he had four.  If Filipowski wreaks havoc on the inside, it could get late early for the Cougars in the Sweet 16.

Prediction: Houston nearly fumbled away the victory versus Texas A&M, but the red flags remain for the top seed in the South.  Houston was dominated on the inside by the Aggies, and Duke is a much more polished squad offensively.  The Blue Devils are among the top-12 teams in the country in terms of three-point field goal percentage.  In addition, the Blue Devils have better defensive metrics than A&M, meaning this could be a low-scoring affair.  The presence of the aforementioned Filipowski should be the difference maker.  Duke moves on in a tight, low-scoring matchup.

Sweet 16 Pick: Duke

No. 11 NC State vs. No. 2 Marquette

Key Matchup: NC State's DJ Horne vs. Marquette's Tyler Kolek.  These players may not end up guarding each other, but both are crucial to their respective teams' offensive success.  Horne was the star of the ACC Championship win over North Carolina, pouring in 29 points in the upset victory that punched NC State's ticket to the Big Dance.  Kolek, meanwhile, missed the Big East Tournament due to an oblique injury, but has not looked any worse for wear by posting back-to-back double-doubles (points and assists) in the first two rounds of March Madness.  Each player is a catalyst for their squad despite impacting the game in slightly different ways.  Roach dislocated his finger in Sunday's win over JMU, but should be fine for this Herculean clash.

NC State will Win IF: the Wolfpack can contain Kam Jones.  While Kolek is the floor general, Jones is the leading scorer, and he has been an assassin this season, especially from three-point range.  In fact, Jones has made at least two three-pointers in eight-straight contests, and 12 of the last 13 outings.  Jones has nailed a combined nine treys over Marquette's first two games of the tournament.  Jones has scored at least 30 points in three of the last 11 contests and four times overall this season.  Unsurprisingly, Marquette is undefeated in those contests.

Marquette will Win IF: the Golden Eagles limit second-chance opportunities.  Marquette was one of the worst rebounding teams in the country this season; they were out-rebounded by a mediocre rebounding Colorado squad in round two.  Meanwhile, NC State has been beastly on the glass during this recent hot streak, including pummeling Oakland by a 12-board margin to gain entry into the Sweet 16.  Oso Ighodaro, David Joplin and the rest of the Marquette front line will be tested in this clash. 

Player to Watch: DJ Burns, F/C, NC State.  Burns delivered a great quote when he said that he studied a lot of Hakeem Olajuwon when he was younger, but that he just happens to have the build of Zach Randolph.  Burns is extremely nimble for his size while also a capable passer.  He played 42 minutes in Saturday's OT win over Oakland, tallying 24 points, 11 rebounds and four dimes.  Over his last four games, Burns is shooting an absurd 71.7-percent from the field.  Burns and Mohamed Diarra give the Wolfpack a ferocious frontcourt; Diarra has reached double-digit rebounds in six-straight outings.

Prediction: Why not embrace the madness?  The most unlikely Cinderella story ever has already been told by the Wolfpack courtesy of the 1983 squad, but this run has been fairly improbable as well.  Marquette was 396th in the nation during the regular season in rebounding, which could be trouble against the imposing tandem of Burns and Diarra.  Oso Ighodaro is going to have his work cut out for him on both ends of the court.  The one wildcard here is Tyler Kolek, who is probably the best all-around player in this game and could be looking to put his stamp on what is likely his last stand here with the Golden Eagles.  The confidence level is at an all-time high for the Wolfpack, though, and they are peaking at the right time.  Cinderella keeps dancing as the Wolfpack move on to the Elite 8.

Sweet 16 Pick: North Carolina State