NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Preview: Midwest Region

Midwest Region Sweet 16 Preview
South Region Sweet 16 Preview
East Region Sweet 16 Preview
West Region Sweet 16 Preview

Site: Little Caesar's Arena, Detroit, MI

Tip-off: Friday, March 29, 7:39 p.m. ET

The Midwest Region has avoided much of the typical March Madness drama so far, with No. 5 Gonzaga's win over No. 4 Kansas being the only reason all of the top four seasons failed to advance to the Sweet 16. With the region's strongest teams still standing, this could be the first real opportunity for people's brackets to really be shaken up.

No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 5 Gonzaga

Key Matchup: Zach Edey vs Graham Ike. Everyone knows that Zach Edey is Purdue's focal point. The senior big man is averaging 26.5 points, 17.5 rebounds, 3.0 blocks, 2.5 assists and 1.0 steals on 67.9 percent shooting from the field across his first two tournament games so far. If Gonzaga allows that level of dominance from Edey, they can kiss their Sweet 16 hopes goodbye. Graham Ike is the best big man the Boilermakers will have faced and has the ability to stress Edey on both sides of the ball. However, at 6-foot-9, it remains to be seen if Ike has the physicality to match up on the interior. 

Purdue will win IF: It keeps Gonzaga off the free-throw line. Going back to Purdue's most recent loss against Wisconsin, the Badgers were able to pick up two quick fouls on Zach Edey and force him to sit much of the first half. This allowed them to build up a lead and never let Purdue take control of the contest. This is a strategy I expect many teams to try in order to neutralize the most dominant big man in the country. However, the Boilermakers have shot 19 more total free throws than their two opponents so far, giving them a heavy advantage from the charity stripe. If Purdue can force Gonzaga to score against their set defense with Edey protecting the paint, it will force the Bulldogs to solely rely on their outside shooting.

Gonzaga will win IF: It can continue its balanced scoring effort. Gonzaga has had five double-digit scorers in each of their NCAA tournament wins so far. Particularly against Kansas, Ryan Nembhard did a masterful job of finding his teammates for open looks, leading to 12 assists. The Bulldogs finished the game putting up 89 points, shooting 60.3 percent from the field and 53.3 percent from three. If Gonzaga can have multiple contributors to keep the defense off balance, its high-powered offense could catapult them to victory.

Player to watch: Braden Smith. Expect Gonzaga to throw double-teams at Edey practically every time he touches the ball in the paint. This means that Purdue will have to look toward Braden Smith to facilitate the offense and find Edey at the rim for good looks. Fortunately for the Boilermakers, Smith is more than capable, as he is averaging 8.0 assists to just 1.5 turnovers across his two tournament appearances so far. Smith is not only able to set up good shots for his teammates, but he also shot 44.0 percent from three this season if a double-team forces Edey to kick it back out to him.

Prediction: While Purdue and Gonzaga have won both of their tournament games by at least 20 points so far, I expect this contest to come down to the wire. Purdue's dominant defense will clash with Gonzaga's balanced but high-powered offense. I expect the Bulldogs to throw the kitchen sink at Edey and force Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Lance Jones to beat them. Although these players have the ability to shoot the lights out, I'm not sure they can keep up with Gonzaga. I also expect the Bulldogs to dominate the minutes when Edey sits, as Braden Huff is one of the best bench bigs in the country. If Gonzaga can score north of 80 points and turn the game into a shootout, I think Purdue will be left behind for yet another underperformance in March Madness. 

SWEET 16 PICK: Gonzaga Bulldogs
 

No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 3 Creighton 

Key Matchup: Zakai Zeigler vs. Trey Alexander. Both the Volunteers and the Bluejays have great point guards who are capable of flipping the momentum of a game. Trey Alexander is more of a scoring guard, as he is averaging 17.7 points per game in 2023-24. On the other hand, Zakai Zeigler is more of a distributor, as shown by his 10 assists against St. Peter's. Alexander has a significant size mismatch here, standing at 6-foot-4 compared to 5-foot-9 for Zeigler. However, Zeigler is a pesky point-of-attack defender who averages 1.8 steals per contest. Despite having two different styles, these two point guards have the ability to determine which team comes out on top.

Tennessee will win IF: It continues to crash the offensive glass. The Volunteers have absolutely feasted on their opponents on the offensive glass in their first two games. They hauled in 19 offensive rebounds against St. Peter's and 17 against Texas. Considering Tennessee has arguably the stoutest defense in the nation, that advantage in terms of possessions is hard to overcome. While Creighton isn't a bad rebounding team, their 14 offensive boards allowed to Oregon could be a bad omen. 

Creighton will win IF: It stays hot from three. Creighton has scorched the nets from outside so far in the NCAA tournament, converting 44.6 percent of their three-point attempts. While its percentage wasn't quite as high against Oregon, its distance shooting ultimately won Creighton the game. The Bluejays made 15 triples, and their 38.5 three-point percentage was practically identical to their 38.7 field-goal percentage. Trey Alexander, Steven Ashworth and Baylor Scheierman all have the ability to absolutely fill it up from downtown. If Creighton is on fire from three, even Tennessee's elite defense might not be able to slow them down.

Player to watch: Dalton Knecht. After being named SEC Player of the Year, Knecht has had a shaky start to the NCAA tournament. While his averages of 20.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and 1.0 assists seem great on the surface, he struggled with his efficiency against Texas. The senior forward converted just five of his 18 field-goal attempts and one of his eight three-point attempts. However, the Longhorns have one of the best wing defenders in the country in Dillon Mitchell, whereas I don't see anyone on Creighton with that same ability. With Knecht's ability to score from all three levels, he could certainly propel Tennessee to the Elite Eight. 

Prediction: Both Creighton and Tennessee are coming off of Round of 32 scares. While Creighton ultimately won by 13 points, Oregon took them all the way into double overtime. Meanwhile, Tennessee escaped with just a four-point win over Texas. However, I just don't see the Volunteers shooting 3-for-25 from three again. When you have a defense as good as Tennessee, you are always in every game. With Jonas Aidoo manning the middle, Creighton will likely have to rely on another strong shooting performance to put enough points on the board. Ultimately, I think Dalton Knecht will have his way and lead the Volunteers to the next round. 

SWEET 16 PICK: Tennessee Volunteers