This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
Overview
The Jan. 27 college hoops slate is reminiscent of last Tuesday. Each site is offering a 10-game slate with nine games overlapping. The FanDuel exclusive is SMU at Cincinnati while the DraftKings exclusive is Michigan at Nebraska. The latter would normally be a great fantasy option except Michigan recently dropped a bombshell and announced that starting senior point guard Zavier Simpson will miss the game due to suspension. Simpson is the floor general for the Wolverines so his absence is hard to calculate. The over/under total is still relatively high even with the Simpson news so it's still worth a look.
Looking at the common slate of games, I'm focusing mostly on Butler-Georgetown, Duke, Auburn, and Virginia Tech-Miami. These games (or individual teams) have the highest expected point totals of all the games on the slate. The Georgia-Missouri game also has a similar over/under total but Georgia hasn't played well on the road and Missouri prefers playing slow, defensive games so I'm not as optimistic about that one.
Top Players
DraftKings
Reggie Perry, F, Mississippi State ($8,800 DK, $8,000 FD)
Perry is averaging a double-double this season but is coming off his worst game of the year. Prior to his last game, Perry had scored 20+ fantasy points in every game this season. Today's matchup against Florida doesn't really concern me, although I should note that Perry commits 4.1 fouls per 40 minutes so foul trouble is always a risk. If he stays out of foul trouble then Perry shouldn't have any issues putting up monster numbers.
Tre Jones, G, Duke ($8,700 DK, $7,400 FD)
The esteemed point guard has a favorable matchup tonight. Duke is expected to score around 77 points against Pittsburgh, most among all teams on the slate. Jones demands lineup consideration assuming you think Duke will meet scoring expectations. I would strongly consider using him in FanDuel contests but it's a tougher decision in DraftKings.
Cam Mack, G, Nebraska ($8,500 DK)
Mack is another consistent performer. He's scored 10+ points in every game since December and has the second-highest assist rate in the Big Ten since conference play began. Tonight, Mack is going against a Wolverine defense that is ranked last in Big Ten conference-only games. On top of that, Michigan won't have Zavier Simpson tonight, so Mack will likely benefit from Simpson's abscence. Mack is expensive, but I think he'll be worth it all things considered.
FanDuel
Reggie Perry, F, Mississippi St. ($8,800 DK, $8,000 FD)
See above.
Kendric Davis, G, SMU ($7,900 FD)
Davis is usually a great fantasy option, but I'm concerned about tonight. SMU is going on the road to take on a Cincinnati team that boasts the second best defense in the AAC since conference play began. The Mustangs are only expected to score around 67 points tonight, and it's easy to see why when examining the tough matchup. I'm passing on Davis in this situation.
Elijah Hughes, G, Syracuse ($8,400 DK, $7,500 FD)
Hughes has played all 40 minutes in six of the past seven games, and even played all 45 minutes in an overtime victory against Virginia on Jan. 11. Hughes also uses the most possessions on the team, making it difficult to pass on him. That being said, this isn't an ideal matchup, as Clemson is defensive-oriented team and the game will likely have a slower pace. This would explain why Syracuse is only expected to score around 67 points. Overall, Hughes warrants consideration but the situation could be better.
Value Plays
Jalen Cone, G, Virginia Tech ($4,300 DK, $4,400 FD)
Cone was recently inserted into the starting lineup and is averaging 30 minutes per game in the three games that he's started. Cone has a chance to provide significant value assuming he once again plays 30 minutes. Cone has made 42-of-76 shots from behind the arc this season, and figures to get plenty of open looks against a soft defense.
Tyrece Radford, G, Virginia Tech ($5,500 DK, $5,300 FD)
A little more expensive as a value play, but could still be worth it. Radford currently has the second highest offensive efficiency rating in the country among qualified players (per KenPom), and is going against a Miami defense that is easily the worst in the ACC. In the last four games, Miami has allowed opponents to score 94, 89, 83, and 80 points.
Kobe Brown, F, Missouri ($4,400 DK, $4,200 FD)
Brown has a usage rate above 20 percent and has the ability to make an impact with rebounds and steals when he's not scoring. Some risk here, but it could pay off considering Georgia has had the worst defense in the SEC since conference play began.
Sahvir Wheeler, G, Georgia ($4,400 DK, $4,200 FD)
Wheeler is the starting point guard for the Bulldogs and had a bounce-back performance in his last game after having is worst game of the season two games ago against Kentucky. Missouri's defense hasn't been great since conference play started so Wheeler has a chance to benefit from the matchup.
Jack White, F, Duke ($4,300 DK, $5,100 FD)
White has seen increased playing time since Wendell Moore's injury and should see additional minutes once again with Moore still sidelined. White doesn't score much but consistently makes plays on the defensive end to help him stay fantasy relevant.
Harlond Beverly, G, Miami ($4,500 DK, $4,000 FD)
Beverly played a season-high 35 minutes in Miami's previous game against North Carolina, mostly because starters Kameron McGusty and Chris Lykes both missed the game due to injury. Both players are still questionable, making them game-time decisions heading into tonight's contest. Beverly has a chance to offer great value assuming both starters sit out for a second straight game.
Tyson Carter, G, Mississippi State ($6,300 DK, $5,200 FD)
Not really any value in DK but surprisingly cheap in FD. Carter recently started coming off the bench in the last four games and averaged 25.5 fantasy points (FD) during that span. Carter plays the second most minutes on the team while using 23.9 percent of his team's possessions when on the court. Carter has a chance to provide significant value on FD.
Game to Target
Butler at Georgetown (-1), o/u 141.5, 9pm ET
This game has the highest over/under total on the slate and features two teams that have highly efficient offenses.
For the Bulldogs, the unquestioned leader of the team is Kamar Baldwin ($7,700 DK, $6,900 FD). He has a knack for putting the team on his back so he's always a solid option. Bryce Nze ($6,500 DK, $6,000 FD) has a lower usage rate but makes up for it with strong rebounding numbers. Sean McDermott ($6,200 DK, $5,700 FD) ranks as the seventh-most efficient offensive player in the country among all qualified players (per KenPom). Aaron Thompson ($5,800 DK, $5,000 FD), starting point guard, missed the previous game and is currently listed as questionable. Jordan Tucker ($5,400 DK, $5,400 FD) is one of the best shooters on the team. Bryce Golden ($4,600 DK, $4,200 FD) has started every game this season but sees fewer minutes compared to other starters. Note: Georgetown has the worst 3-point defense in the Big East so I'm expecting Butler's shooters to take advantage.
For the home team, the two best options are Omer Yurtseven ($8,300 DK, $6,900 FD) and Mac McClung ($7,900 DK, $6,700 FD). These two players easily have the highest usage rates on the team. Jamorko Pickett ($6,100 DK, $6,000 FD) is another starter who sees signficant playing time. Terrell Allen ($5,500 DK, $5,100 FD) is the team's starting point guard. Jagan Mosely ($6,200 DK, $5,600 FD) plays the most minutes on the team while making 20-of-43 shots from behind the arc this season. Georgetown has been using a tight rotation lately so I would caution against any other Hoyas.
Game to Fade
Florida State at Virginia (-1), o/u 115, 7pm ET
This game has the lowest over/under total on tonight's slate and it's not close. Neither team is expected to score more than 60 points. We're all better off looking elsewhere for fantasy points but if you like either of these teams then here are your options:
The two biggest contributors for the Seminoles are Trent Forrest ($7,100 DK, $7,000 FD) and Devin Vassell ($7,000 DK, $6,800 FD). After that, there might be some value on MJ Walker ($5,200 DK, $4,400 FD), Malik Osborne ($5,000 DK, $4,700 FD), or Anthony Polite ($4,900 DK, $5,400 FD). The Seminoles play with a long bench so anyone else is a huge risk.
If you're determined to pick a Cavalier, the best two options are Mamadi Diakite ($7,500 DK, $6,100 FD) and Kihei Clark ($7,000 DK, $6,000 FD). In a lower tier, Braxton Key ($6,600 DK, $5,800 FD) and Jay Huff ($5,800 DK, $5,000 FD) also have usage rates around 20 percent. Anyone else is too risky too play. Note: Virginia players are significantly cheaper on FD. so there's more value on that site if you're interested in taking a Cavalier.
Site Special
The Mustangs currently have the highest-rated offense in the American conference while Cincinnati has the second best defense during conference play. On the flip side, Cincinnati's strong offense is going against SMU's soft defense.
I already discussed Kendric Davis ($7,900) above, but a couple other decent options are Isiaha Mike ($7,100) or Tyson Jolly ($6,500). I would advise against Feron Hunt ($6,200), as he recently started coming off the bench with a minutes reduction.
For the home team, Tre Scott ($7,000) and Jarron Cumberland ($6,800) are the leading fantasy scorers. In the next tier we have Keith Williams ($6,400) and Chris Vogt ($5,900). Jaevin Cumberland ($4,500) doesn't start but has a decent usage rate while taking and making the most 3-point shots on the team (45-of-123 this season). Note: SMU has had the worst 3-point defense during conference play this season so shooters like Williams and Cumberland might benefit from the matchup.
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