This article is part of our NBA Draft Strategy series.
Drafting rookies for your fantasy team is a risky proposition.
NBA veterans are remarkably consistent from year to year. Barring an unexpected change in playing time, we pretty much know what to expect from veterans. That's why (if you've heard this before, say it with me) minutes are the most important stat in fantasy basketball. If we know how many minutes a veteran will play, we generally know where they will rank.
Rookies, on the other hand, are an unknown. Some of them significantly exceed their draft day value, while others turn out to be huge disappointments.
To combat this uncertainty, I've developed a rookie projection system that uses the rookie seasons of similar players to forecast how each rookie will rank in the upcoming season.
If you'd like to know more about this projection system, I explain it in detail here. You can also find links to a reasonable best and worst-case scenario for several of the top rookies here.
In this article, I've organized my rookie projections by tiers. These tiers are based on head-to-head leagues, where we here at RotoWire recommend targeting the six positive counting categories and de-emphasizing (otherwise known as punting) field goal percentage, free throw percentage, and turnovers. For further explanation on why we structure our head-to-head rankings in that manner, read this article.
Tier 1: Players That Should Be in Your Starting Lineup
Name | H2H Rank | H2H $$ | GP | MPG | FG% | FT% | 3PM | REB | AST | STL | BLK | PTS |
Drafting rookies for your fantasy team is a risky proposition.
NBA veterans are remarkably consistent from year to year. Barring an unexpected change in playing time, we pretty much know what to expect from veterans. That's why (if you've heard this before, say it with me) minutes are the most important stat in fantasy basketball. If we know how many minutes a veteran will play, we generally know where they will rank.
Rookies, on the other hand, are an unknown. Some of them significantly exceed their draft day value, while others turn out to be huge disappointments.
To combat this uncertainty, I've developed a rookie projection system that uses the rookie seasons of similar players to forecast how each rookie will rank in the upcoming season.
If you'd like to know more about this projection system, I explain it in detail here. You can also find links to a reasonable best and worst-case scenario for several of the top rookies here.
In this article, I've organized my rookie projections by tiers. These tiers are based on head-to-head leagues, where we here at RotoWire recommend targeting the six positive counting categories and de-emphasizing (otherwise known as punting) field goal percentage, free throw percentage, and turnovers. For further explanation on why we structure our head-to-head rankings in that manner, read this article.
Tier 1: Players That Should Be in Your Starting Lineup
Name | H2H Rank | H2H $$ | GP | MPG | FG% | FT% | 3PM | REB | AST | STL | BLK | PTS | TOV |
Nerlens Noel | 51 | $ 20 | 74 | 29.2 | 48.9% | 55.2% | 0.0 | 8.0 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 9.9 | 1.6 |
Marcus Smart | 74 | $ 12 | 76 | 30.5 | 40.1% | 74.0% | 0.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 13.0 | 2.2 |
Jabari Parker | 78 | $ 12 | 76 | 34.0 | 44.0% | 73.0% | 0.7 | 6.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 15.4 | 2.3 |
Dante Exum | 97 | $ 9 | 76 | 27.5 | 43.0% | 74.0% | 0.7 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 12.5 | 2.4 |
Nerlens Noel
Best Case Scenario:Anthony Davis
Noel was tabbed as the heir apparent to Davis at Kentucky, although his tenure as a Wildcat wasn't quite as successful as Davis'. Noel projects to contribute like Davis did as a rookie in the rebounding, steals, and blocks categories. If he is able to replicate Davis's rookie season while playing in the 76ers' fast-paced offense, Noel will be a top-30 player this season in head-to-head leagues.
Worst Case Scenario:Ed Davis
Like Noel, Ed Davis is a slender big man who contributed in both blocks and steals as a rookie. However, Davis struggled to consistently contribute on the offensive end. If Noel follows in Davis' footsteps as a rookie, he will still give solid production in rebounds, steals, and blocks, but the lack of offense will rank Noel just outside of the top 100.
Recommendation: Target Noel around pick 50.
Marcus Smart (Complete Projection)
Best Case Scenario:Tyreke Evans
As a rookie, Evans became only the fourth rookie in NBA history to average at least 20 points, five assists, and five rebounds per game. Evans and Smart are similar in size, build, and athleticism. If Smart is able to produce like Evans did as a rookie, he will end the season as a top-50 player.
Worst Case Scenario:Dion Waiters
Like Smart, Waiters was an explosive scorer in college with a strong physical frame which allowed him to make plays in traffic. However, Waiters has been unable to establish himself as a starter for the Cavs. If Smart produces like Waiters did as a rookie, he'll only be worth a bench spot on your fantasy team, although still rosterable.
Recommendation: Target Smart around pick 75.
Jabari Parker (Complete Projection)
Best Case Scenario:Glenn Robinson Sr.
Most Bucks fans probably hope that Robinson represents the floor for Parker's career. In real life that may be true, but from a fantasy perspective, if Parker is able to duplicate Robinson's per-possession production as a rookie, he will be a top-50 player this season mainly because of his elite scoring and positive contributions in the rebounding and steals categories.
Worst Case Scenario:Derrick Williams
Williams and Parker put up nearly identical counting stats during college. Williams, however, was unable to translate his efficient scoring from college to the pros, as he struggled to find a position. If Parker has similar struggles, he could end up on the waiver wire this season.
Recommendation: Target Parker around pick 75.
Dante Exum (Complete Projection)
Best Case Scenario: Penny Hardaway
Like Exum, Hardaway was a tall point guard who excelled at getting into the paint. Despite Exum's bench role, if he is able to replicate Hardaway's per-possession production as a rookie, he will rank inside the top 50 because of his ability to provide fantasy value in the assists and steals categories.
Worst Case Scenario:Shaun Livingston
Livingston had a bumpy transition from high school to the NBA as he struggled to score and shoot efficiently. Livingston still had some value as a rookie because of his production in the assists and steals categories. Even in this scenario, Exum is worthy of a bench spot in 12-team head-to-head leagues.
Recommendation: Target Exum around pick 100.
Tier 2: Players to Draft and Keep on Your Bench for Now
Name | H2H Rank | H2H $$ | GP | MPG | FG% | FT% | 3PM | REB | AST | STL | BLK | PTS | TOV |
K.J. McDaniels | 106 | $ 6 | 76 | 26.0 | 40.5% | 70.8% | 0.5 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 12.1 | 1.6 |
Elfrid Payton | 111 | $ 5 | 78 | 27.4 | 41.3% | 64.0% | 0.2 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 11.0 | 2.2 |
Andrew Wiggins | 130 | $ 2 | 76 | 30.0 | 44.0% | 75.3% | 0.6 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 11.9 | 1.6 |
K.J. McDaniels
Best Case Scenario:Josh Howard
Josh Howard was a sneaky good fantasy player because of his ability to produce in both the blocks and steals categories. McDaniels projects to contribute in both categories, particularly blocks. If he is able to produce on a per-possession basis like Howard did as a rookie, while also getting the benefit of playing in the 76ers' fast-paced offense, he will be a top-80 player this season.
Worst Case Scenario: Dahntay Jones
Jones also was a valuable source of steals and blocks as a rookie, but he struggled to produce on the offensive end. If McDaniels produces at a similar rate as Jones in his role with the 76ers, he would rank outside of the top 150.
Recommendation: Target McDaniels around pick 105.
Best Case Scenario:Rajon Rondo
As a rookie, Rondo didn't average the elite number of assists that he does now, but he was still a strong contributor in the category, and he also provided fantasy value in rebounds and steals. If Payton can mimic Rondo's rookie season, he'll finish the season ranked in the top 100.
Worst Case Scenario:Tony Wroten
Wroten's inefficient shooting has prevented him from seeing consistent playing time thus far in his career, and its possible Payton could suffer the same fate. Wroten produced a valuable number of rebounds and assists per possession as a rookie, but not much else. If Payton mimics Wroten's rookie season, he will finish outside of the top 150.
Recommendation: Target Payton around pick 110.
Andrew Wiggins (Complete Projection)
Best Case Scenario:Paul George
George seems to be the popular comparison for Wiggins due to their similarities in size, athleticism, and defensive potential. If Wiggins is able to put up comparable per-possession stats as George did as a rookie, he will finish the season as a top-60 player mainly because of his strong contribution in the steals category.
Worst Case Scenario:Harrison Barnes
Barnes struggled as a rookie to assert himself consistently on the offensive and defensive end. If Wiggins struggles in a similar manner during his rookie season, he will end up on the waiver wire in most leagues.
Recommendation: Target Wiggins around pick 130.
Tier 3: Players With Upside
It's worth mentioning again that the most important stat in fantasy basketball is minutes, and just like with all of the other categories, its tough to predict how many minutes each rookie will play in the upcoming season.
As a result, it's worthwhile to look at rookie projections on a per-possession basis, so we can see how the players rank independent of their projected minutes. Here are the top 15 rookies, and their head-to-head rankings using their per-100-possession stats:
Name | H2H Rank | H2H $$ | FG% | FT% | 3PM | REB | AST | STL | BLK | PTS | TOV |
Nerlens Noel | 68 | $ 14 | 48.9% | 55.2% | 0.0 | 13.2 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 16.4 | 2.7 |
Dante Exum | 80 | $ 11 | 43.0% | 74.0% | 1.4 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 23.2 | 4.4 |
Marcus Smart | 115 | $ 2 | 40.1% | 74.0% | 1.5 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 21.9 | 3.7 |
Mitch McGary | 117 | $ 1 | 49.7% | 63.4% | 0.0 | 13.8 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 15.8 | 2.8 |
K.J. McDaniels | 133 | $ 1 | 40.5% | 70.8% | 1.0 | 9.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 22.5 | 3.1 |
Russ Smith | 147 | $ 1 | 37.5% | 61.9% | 1.6 | 6.4 | 8.2 | 2.3 | 0.2 | 18.2 | 3.6 |
Tyler Ennis | 162 | $ - | 38.1% | 75.8% | 0.9 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 18.1 | 3.3 |
Elfrid Payton | 171 | $ - | 41.3% | 64.0% | 0.4 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 20.6 | 4.2 |
Doug McDermott | 178 | $ - | 41.1% | 73.3% | 3.2 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 23.5 | 2.8 |
Kyle Anderson | 180 | $ - | 42.2% | 69.0% | 0.8 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 16.2 | 4.2 |
Jabari Parker | 213 | $ - | 44.0% | 73.0% | 1.0 | 9.9 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 23.5 | 3.5 |
Kostas Papanikolaou | 233 | $ - | 41.3% | 75.4% | 1.7 | 8.7 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 18.1 | 3.0 |
James Ennis | 237 | $ - | 39.2% | 70.5% | 1.2 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 15.0 | 2.4 |
Nikola Mirotic | 242 | $ - | 46.6% | 75.3% | 0.5 | 12.7 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 17.7 | 3.0 |
Shabazz Napier | 244 | $ - | 37.0% | 79.7% | 1.6 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 17.4 | 4.0 |
This list looks much the same as our list above with a couple of notable exceptions:
Mitch McGary ranks 4th on this list. McGary comes in our actual rankings at 284th overall, because we've projected him for only 14 minutes per game, but if he is able to work his way into the Thunder's rotation, he's a guy who you will want to target later on in the season as a source of rebounds and steals off of the waiver wire. This also makes him a great target in dynasty leagues that allow you to stash players.
Jabari Parker ranks only 11th on this list. I expect Parker to get big minutes in Milwaukee, which should make his fantasy stats good enough to be on your roster. However, if those big minutes don't come his way, he could be a major disappointment and someone you look to trade away early in the season.
As I mentioned at the beginning of this article, these rankings are for head-to-head leagues, which means, with different league settings, these rankings could look very different. To see rankings for all of the rookies in several different league settings click here (link is to a google sheet). Please leave any comments or questions below or reach out to me on twitter (@MarcFRoberts).
