This article is part of our FantasyDraft NBA series.
Friday's six-game slate gives us sufficient options to vary our lineups in tournaments, and enough secure selections to build a solid cash game roster as well. Five teams ranked in the top 10 in pace are in action, and there's a trio of games with projected totals over the 215 mark in Clippers-Thunder, Sixers-Nets and Heat-Lakers. With the playoff races heating up and certain teams looking to play spoiler, it should make for an interesting night of DFS action. Without further ado, let's take a look at where the value lies at each level on tonight's ledger:
GUARDS
Russell Westbrook, OKC vs. LAC ($21,900): Westbrook's body of work against the Clippers this season includes averages of 25.5 points, 9.5 assists, 7.5 rebounds and 2.0 steals across 36.0 minutes in two games, and he just rattled off 70.00 fantasy points against the Hawks on the strength of the 100th triple-double of his storied career. He'll face off against a Los Angeles squad that's fallen apart against point guards recently, allowing 56.3 fantasy points per game to the position over the last five, eighth most over that span and a sharp spike up from their 37.0 season figure. The Clippers' pace of play will also work in his favor Friday, as the they come in generating the sixth-most possessions (102.2) per contest, furthering Westbrook's always-strong case in a game that carries the highest projected point total of the night (223).
D'Angelo Russell, BKN at PHI ($12,100): Russell has blown his current price out of the water recently, scoring 37.50 to 48.25 fantasy points in three of his past four games. He'd also tallied 39.50 and 45.25 fantasy points, respectively, in two other contests over his last seven, a stretch during which he's sporting a 27.0 percent usage rate and averaging 1.14 fantasy points per minute. Additionally, Russell has thrived against the Sixers this season, averaging 24.0 points, 4.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists across just 22.5 minutes over two meetings, with one of those contests a 26-point showing two games ago. Philadelphia has been increasingly vulnerable to two-guards as well, allowing 50.5 fantasy points to the position over the last 10, a notable bump over their 39.2 season figure. Moreover, their fifth-fastest pace of play (102.9 possessions per game, which bumps up slightly to 103.2 at home) combined with Brooklyn's sixth-fastest (102.7 possessions per contest, including 103.1 on the road) could well be the perfect storm with respect to Russell's prospects in a matchup currently projected as the third-highest scoring of the night (217.5 points).
Corey Brewer, OKC vs. LAC ($8,600): The Warriors' projected starting backcourt of Quinn Cook ($7,300) and Nick Young ($7,600) are also intriguing at this price tier, especially if Kevin Durant (ribs) is held out of Friday's contest. However, for those who have the extra cash, Brewer certainly isn't a bad alternative, considering recent production, price and matchup. The veteran has scored 20.75 to 31.50 fantasy points over the last four games, a span during which he's seen no fewer than 27 minutes and as many as 32 as the starting shooting guard. The Clippers have struggled against twos as well all season, allowing the second-most fantasy points (43.5) to the position on the campaign, including the most (68.8) over the last 10. They're also allowing league-worst or bottom-five figures in multiple to other categories to shooting guards, including the most three-pointers (5.6) over the latter span. Brewer checks in with an impressive 44.4 percent success rate from distance on an average of 3.6 three-point attempts over the last five, including an even sharper 50.0 percent tally over his last three. The contest's previously mentioned robust projected total only serves to further his case at a highly reasonable cost.
FORWARDS/CENTERS
Nikola Vucevic, ORL vs. BOS ($16,500): Vucevic has averaged a double-double (12.5 points, 10.5 rebounds) over 26.5 minutes in two games against the Celtics this season, and he's scored over 50 fantasy points twice, more than 40 once and over 30 on another three occasions in his last eight games. He's racked up the double-double bonus in five instances during that stretch as well, and the Celtics come in displaying some vulnerability to big men of late. Boston has allowed 42.5 fantasy points to centers over the last 10 -- as compared to a 30.8 season figure -- and they've yielded the seventh-highest shooting percentage (59.0) to fives over the latter span as well. That spells trouble against the floor-spacing Vucevic, who's drained 50.9 percent of his 14.3 shot attempts over his last 12 contests; so does the Celtics' significant spike in points allowed in the paint over the last three (50.7, compared to 42.8 on the season), an area of the floor where Vucevic logs almost half his scoring (49.1 percent).
Brook Lopez, LAL vs. MIA ($12,300): The light seemingly went on for Lopez during the All-Star break, as he came out of the layoff hot and has only gotten better. The veteran big is averaging a robust 13.9 shot attempts per contest over eight March games, and he's scored 33.00 to 44.50 fantasy points in five of his last six contests. He has the benefit of playing in a system that's currently tied with the Pelicans for most possessions per game (105.1) -- including the most (105.4) at home – and he'll face a Heat squad that will once again be without the rim-protecting presence of Hassan Whiteside (hip) on Friday. Given that he's consistently outproduced his current price by a comfortable margin in recent games, he offers some appealing mid-tier value that makes things more flexible for you elsewhere.
Zaza Pachulia, GS vs. SAC ($8,800): At minimum, the Warriors will be without their starting backcourt of Stephen Curry (ankle) and Klay Thompson (thumb) on Friday, and there's technically a 50/50 chance that Kevin Durant sits with sore ribs as well. That could open up significant opportunity for Pachulia, who's scored 41.75 and 33.00 fantasy points in the last two games on respective minutes totals of 25 and 23. He's hit the double-double bonus in both contests, and it's worth noting he's averaging 1.28 fantasy points per minute with all three aforementioned stars off the floor this season. Even if Durant suits up, the absence of the Splash Bros. and the Kings' second-highest offensive efficiency rating (33.7) allowed to centers serve to make him a potentially rewarding value play Friday.
UTILITY
Draymond Green, GS vs. SAC ($15,800): Along those same lines, Green projects as a highly appealing option in his own right, as he'll be back in the lineup Friday after sitting out Wednesday due to shoulder soreness. He should see a notable spike in offensive usage with the Warriors' starting backcourt out of action, but his levels would likely go through the roof should Durant miss as well. Green has already scored 35.25 to 53.50 fantasy points in five of his last six games, and a matchup against a Kings squad allowing 45.7 fantasy points to power forwards over the last five and the fourth-highest shooting percentage (48.0) to the position on the season serves to make him even more of a strong play.
Wayne Ellington, MIA at LAL ($8,900): Dwyane Wade (hamstring) has already been ruled out for Friday's game, putting Ellington square in play once again at a bargain price. The veteran sharpshooter has scored 27.25 and 30.75 fantasy points in two of his last three contests, along with a respectable 19.75 in the other game during that sample. The Lakers' aforementioned league-high pace of play should suit him quite nicely, as should the 49.9 fantasy points they've allowed to two-guards over the last 10, a span during which they've also yielded the fourth-most made threes (4.0) to the position. Ellington has taken a whopping 10.0 attempts from distance over his last four games, draining an impressive 40.0 percent of them along the way to a solid 14.8 points during that stretch. Although his production in other categories is typically spotty, the extra possessions and ample playing time he should see Friday make for a favorable combination with respect to his ability to pay off a modest price.
