Fantasy Basketball Waiver Wire - Who to Add, Who to Avoid for Week 3

Welcome back. Another week down, a lot more learned, and lots of outstanding pickups to be had.

Before we get into this week's pickups, I will briefly discuss team schedules. As the season progresses, this article will focus more on the coming week's schedule. But it's too early to spend much energy focusing on that right now. The NBA Fantasy season is long, and the first few weeks are often a time of season-defining waiver pickups. While streaming a spot or maximizing games played gives you a better chance at winning Week 3, I'd rather lose one week if that's the cost of an entire season of Franz Wagner (this column's top pickup for Week 3 last season). It's OK to add players with no long-term value while filling in for an injured player (this article names several), but don't let next week's schedule determine whether you pick Jaden McDaniels or Brook Lopez. 

The players in this article must be rostered in less than two-thirds of CBS leagues. Players are listed in the order that I recommend them, assuming they are equally good fits for your team.

Double-check your league

Players rostered in over two-thirds of leagues but still under-rostered. In many cases, these players qualified for this article before big opening night performances, meaning managers with once-weekly waiver runs are particularly likely to see these players still available.

Ayo Dosunmu, Bulls (76% rostered)

Kevin Huerter, Kings (67% rostered)

Jarred Vanderbilt, Jazz (72% rostered)

Jalen Duren, Pistons (66% rostered)

De'Andre Hunter, Hawks (72% rostered)

Adds for all leagues

Jaden McDaniels, Timberwolves  (59% rostered)

McDaniels was one of the top adds last week, but a meh weekend followed by a rough game Monday led to his roster rate barely moving. Everything I said last week still holds – McDaniels should be a permanent starter this season. I'm cherry-picking here, but I think his stats from Games 1 and 5 are much more likely to be representative than those of Games 2-4. In Games 1 and 5, he posted 20-5-2 with 5.5 stocks (steals + blocks) in 35.5 minutes. It won't be quite that excellent all the time, but it does demonstrate how good he can be.

Also, make sure you're targeting the right McDaniels – his older brother with a similar name, Jalen, plays for the Hornets and is also a popular pickup right now. Jalen is included in the "other recommendations" section below. 

Brook Lopez, Bucks  (61% rostered)

After missing nearly all of last year, the Fantasy community had limited expectations for 34-year-old. Whoops. The shot-blocking floor-spacer is back with a vengeance. It's super early, so take this with a salt cube, but Lopez leads the league in blocks and is first among centers in threes per game. He's starting and playing 29.3 minutes, more than enough to finish inside the top 100.

Bol Bol, Magic  (33% rostered)

Blocks are Fantasy's scarcest category, and Bol gets a lot of them. It's that simple. The 17.2 minutes per game don't matter much compared to his 2.6 blocks -- a figure high enough to lead the NBA in two of the past five seasons. He's already a must-roster. If his minutes increase, he could be a Fantasy monster. For added incentive, if you focus only on the last two games, he's up to 21.0 minutes, 14.0 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 3.0 blocks. 

Trey Murphy, Pelicans  (54% rostered)

Popular NBA Twitter user Rob Perez (World Wide Wob) has a running bit questioning whether Murphy has ever missed an uncontested shot. But Perez fails to realize that Murphy's shot-making goes beyond that – it's unclear whether Murphy has ever missed at all! We know he didn't when he got the spot start Tuesday, shooting 8-8 from the field (4-4 from three) and 2-2 from the line. 

Murphy is shooting 65% from the field -- an absurd figure for a wing shooter. That will normalize, but it's earning him extra minutes, which is what we care about most when assessing his waiver potential. If he can settle in at 25 minutes per game, he can be a solid source of threes, points, and rebounds.

Tre Mann, Thunder  (30% rostered)

Mann has started the last three games due to absences from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (hip) and Josh Giddey (ankle). Giddey may continue to miss time, adding to Mann's appeal. But even before filling in as a starter, Mann was putting up respectable numbers: 13-3-3 with 2.0 threes in 25.5 minutes. With added time and responsibility of a starter, those figures jumped a bit, highlighted by 25 points Tuesday. His defense will determine his upside -- a pair of steals in each of the last two games. But even if the steals settle out closer to one per game, Mann would be a solid addition to most lineups.

Dennis Smith Jr, Hornets  (44% rostered)

It's unclear how long Terry Rozier (ankle) will be out, but he should miss at least one more game after getting listed as doubtful Friday. In Smith's two starts since Rozier went down, he's averaged 16-3-9 with 2.5 steals. Once Rozier returns, Smith goes back to being a limited steals specialist. Most managers will be able to ignore him. But we could get a few more games without Rozier, and Smith is an excellent play for as long as that lasts.

Jaylen Nowell, Timberwolves  (24% rostered)

Nowell is currently operating as the Timberwolves' sixth man, and his workload has increased through these early games. After playing just 18 minutes in the opener, he's up to 24.0 over his last three. While we'd still prefer more from a potential pickup, Nowell has been compelling enough that he's addable even without further minutes growth. He's scored at least 13 points in every game and is averaging 16-5-2 with 1.8 threes and nearly one steal per game.

Lonnie Walker, Lakers  (45% rostered)

Walker has been one of the few (only?) bright spots through the Lakers' disastrous 0-4 start. Picked up in the offseason for a cheap one-year contract, Walker is starting and averaging 32.3 minutes per game. That workload has enabled him to average 15-3-3 on top of better-than-expected defensive numbers (2.5 stocks). Those numbers look even better if you ignore the season opener, in which Walker struggled. Walker may be the Lakers' third-best Fantasy option.

Marcus Morris, Clippers  (22% rostered)

Morris missed the last two games for personal reasons, and it's unclear when he will rejoin the team. The initial report only ruled him out for two games, so he may return soon. Morris started LA's first three games, averaging 15-5-1 in 25.0 minutes. If I were confident he plays in Week 3, he'd be listed higher here.

Other recommendations: Isaiah Jackson, Pacers (34% rostered); Terrence Ross, Magic (35% rostered); Max Stus, Heat (35% rostered); Isaiah Hartenstein, Knicks (47% rostered); Monte Morris, Wizards (62% rostered); Nick Richards, Hornets (38% rostered); Larry Nance, Pelicans (15% rostered); Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Nuggets (41% rostered); Jalen McDaniels, Hornets (10% rostered); Malik Monk, (17% rostered); Cam Reddish, Knicks (21% rostered); Grant Williams, Celtics (28% rostered)

Popular pickups I'm avoiding

Kelly Olynyk, Jazz  (60% rostered)

Olynyk has been a solid Fantasy producer through his first five games. It's not sustainable. He's 31 years old and in his 10th NBA season. We know who he is, and we know who he is not. For example, Olynyk is not a 52% FG shooter (47% career) nor a nice 69% 3Pt shooter (37% career). He's currently averaging career highs in assists and steals -- two more categories almost sure to fall off a cliff going forward. There's a chance his rebounds tick up to offset those other drops, but that won't be enough to keep Olynyk near the top 100. And all of these statistical complaints assume he maintains his role as a starter earning 28.6 minutes per game – a laughable assumption, given the state of Jazz and their big-picture goals for the season.

If you already have him and want to hang on until the wheels fall off, fine. But there are good pickups available, and I'd hate to miss out on one of those because of Kelly Flippin Olynyk.

Royce O'Neale, Nets  (40% rostered)

Unlike Olynyk, O'Neale is a good NBA player. But he turns 30 years old this season and has never been more than a Fantasy streamer. The fact that the Nets are playing him an absurd 37.4 minutes per game does boost him to the Fantasy fringe, but there is no reason to believe he can maintain anything close to his current 1.8 steals or 1.2 blocks. That's more than double his career high in per-minute block rate and a 50% increase over his career-best per-minute steals rate. Once his defensive stats fall back to Earth, O'Neale will have a profile devoid of any category good enough to attract attention. 

Deep League Special

Take note: some players listed in the "other recommendations" section above are likely to be available in many deep leagues (McDaniels, Monk, etc.); I recommend those players above the names listed below. This section is for widely available players who, for one reason or another, are not well suited to most standard-sized leagues but make intriguing options given the different strategic considerations of deeper formats.

Bruce Brown, Nuggets  (17% rostered)

Brown is one of the NBA's weirdest players (in a good way). He doesn't play any traditional position, giving him extra Fantasy upside. Last week, 6'3" point guard Jamal Murray and 6'10" forward Michael Porter each missed a game. Brown filled in as the replacement starter for both. Brown fills in for at least three members of the Nuggets' starting lineup, and those random spot starts make him extra attractive in deep leagues. And with Murray and Porter returning from significant injuries, they will likely receive plenty of rest. In last week's two starts, Brown averaged 19-3-5 and 3.5 threes in 31.5 minutes. When Denver is fully healthy, Brown's production is adequate. He won't score much, but he should help a little in most other categories. 

Other recommendations: Caleb Martin, Heat (16% rostered); Maxi Kleber, Mavericks (6% rostered); Tyus Jones, Grizzlies (17% rostered); Kenyon Martin, Rockets (7% rostered); Aaron Wiggins, Thunder (4% rostered)