This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
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Best NBA Bets for Thunder vs. Nuggets
Over 214.5 total points -110 @ bet365
The point totals have been somewhat inconsistent throughout the series, with games featuring high-scoring contests and others being low-scoring affairs. Game 6 of the series ended with a 119-107 victory for the Nuggets. However, judging by the series' trends, this 214.5-point mark seems a bit low, and backing the over seems like the smart bet here. Five of the six games in the series have recorded at least 217 points in total, with the lone exception being the Thunder's win in Game 4 by a 92-87 score. Given what's at stake in this game, it wouldn't be crazy to imagine that defense will be the focus, but the 214.5-point mark still seems low. Eight of Denver's last nine playoff games, and seven of Oklahoma City's last eight, have also hit this mark.
Nikola Jokic to record a triple-double +210 @ bet365
Jokic was one of the two best players in the NBA during the regular season, and he also excelled during the first-round series against the Clippers, but his numbers have been trending in the wrong direction in this series. "Down" might be a stretch considering how good Jokic has been, though. He's averaging 29.8 points, 14.7 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game in the series, but surprisingly, he's failed to record a triple-double in the first six games – after doing so in nearly half of his appearances during the 2024-25 regular season and in three of his seven outings in the first-round series against the Clippers. The Nuggets need him to be at his best Sunday, especially with Aaron Gordon (hamstring) being unlikely to play, so if there's a game in which Jokic will go all out for a triple-double, it'll probably be this series-decider. He should have an extremely high usage rate.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to record over 44.5 points + rebounds + assists -115 @ bet365
If Jokic was considered one of the two best players in the NBA, it's fair to mention Gilgeous-Alexander as the other top player in that two-man race to win the MVP Award. The star floor general has stepped up for the Thunder time and time again throughout the series and has scored at least 30 points in four of the six games so far. His contributions go beyond the scoring column, though. He's recorded 41 and 44 PRA, but it's worth noting that he's failed to reach the 44.5 PRA mark over his last four contests in the series. The Thunder need him to be at his best in this series, and given that he surpassed this 44.5 PRA mark in the first two games of the semifinals, he could be a strong bet to rack up stats left and right. Expect Gilgeous-Alexander's usage rate to be astronomically high in this do-or-die contest.
