Dylan Carlson

26-Year-Old OutfielderOF

Tampa Bay Rays

2024 Stats

AVG

.209

RBI

Rest-of-Season Projections

AVG

RBI

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2024 Fantasy Outlook

Just a few short years ago, Carlson was regarded as a promising, up-and-coming big leaguer, but his shine has taken a considerable hit on account of his .230/.316/.364 batting line over the past two seasons (743 plate appearances). He injured his left ankle in mid-May of last year and battled the ankle throughout the campaign before ultimately undergoing surgery in September. The outfielder was cleared for running and baseball activities in December, but he will still be brought along slowly in spring training. Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol once considered Carlson his leadoff hitter of the future, and his optimism was justified after a 2021 season in which Carlson had 53 extra-base hits and a .343 OBP at the age of 22. Now 25, Carlson figures to bounce back with better luck on the health front, though he is not assured a regular role out of camp and may in fact open the year as the Cardinals' fourth outfielder. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

Rest of Season

From Preseason

#412

ADP

League Majors

Bats B

Throws L

40 Man Yes

Height 6'3"

Weight 195

DOB 10/23/1998

Drafted 1st Rd 2016

Ends season with three hits

OFTampa Bay Rays

September 30, 2024

Carlson went 3-for-4 with an RBI on Sunday against the Red Sox.

ANALYSIS
Carlson has started only 12 of 27 games in September while working as a depth outfielder, but he ended his season on a strong note. He hit only .219 with a .615 OPS after being dealt to the Rays, so he could remain a bench bat for the team heading into 2025.

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Batting Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2022

+25%

OPS vs LHP

2024

+13%

OPS vs LHP

2023

+30%

OPS vs LHP

2022

+33%

OPS vs LHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022vs Left	.747	342	38	6	31	3	.265	.351	.396
Since 2022vs Right	.600	666	64	10	64	7	.204	.287	.313
2024vs Left	.603	116	9	1	9	0	.212	.310	.293
2024vs Right	.533	149	10	2	17	2	.206	.268	.265
2023vs Left	.771	85	8	2	7	1	.268	.376	.394
2023vs Right	.592	170	19	3	20	2	.196	.288	.304
2022vs Left	.845	141	21	3	15	2	.305	.369	.477
2022vs Right	.633	347	35	5	27	3	.207	.294	.339
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2022

+17%

OPS at Home

2024

+24%

OPS at Home

2023

+2%

OPS at Home

2022

+22%

OPS at Home

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022Home	.702	491	60	10	55	7	.238	.320	.382
Since 2022Away	.600	517	42	6	39	3	.211	.298	.302
2024Home	.628	121	11	2	13	2	.241	.298	.330
2024Away	.505	144	8	1	12	0	.179	.278	.228
2023Home	.657	140	18	3	16	2	.220	.307	.350
2023Away	.643	115	9	2	11	1	.219	.330	.313
2022Home	.771	230	31	5	26	3	.249	.339	.431
2022Away	.631	258	25	3	16	2	.226	.295	.336
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Stat Review

How does Dylan Carlson compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.29

BB Rate

8.3%

K Rate

28.3%

BABIP

.288

ISO

.068

AVG

.209

OBP

.287

SLG

.277

OPS

.563

wOBA

.259

Exit Velocity

86.8 mph

Hard Hit Rate

26.4%

Barrels/PA

1.5%

Expected BA

.200

Expected SLG

.281

Sprint Speed

23.1 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

41.0%

Line Drive %

20.5%

Fly Ball %

38.5%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Dylan Carlson Prospect Ranking History

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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63 days ago

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2023

2022

2021

2020

Carlson's own manager was driving the hype train last spring, predicting big things for a player he envisioned as his leadoff man. That train went off the rails in a hurry as Carlson mostly struggled before landing on the injured list in May with a hamstring strain. A thumb sprain put him back on the shelf in September and the outfielder couldn't really get going in between. In the end, Carlson slashed .236/.316/.380 across 488 plate appearances. After popping 18 home runs in 2021, Carlson managed eight long balls last season to go along with five steals in seven attempts. If there's a silver lining it's that Carlson trimmed his strikeout rate five percentage points to 19.3%. Keep in mind too that Carlson is still only 24 years old and will be for the entirely of the 2023 season. While far too young to give up on, the switch hitter had dramatic platoon splits and the Cardinals may be forced dial back his playing time slightly if his struggles against lefties continue.

Many prospects cruising through Double A and Triple A when they're 20 years old are overmatched in the majors if they debut the next season. Such was the case for Carlson in 2020 before he picked things up down the stretch. Carlson's follow-up was much better as he demonstrated many of the skills earning him top prospect status. Specifically, Carlson improved his plate discipline by walking more and fanning less. His overall average exit velocity was only 29th percentile, but it was closer to league average on flyballs, supporting power. A low exit velocity on grounders combined with 73rd percentile sprint speed and a little good fortune yielded a .250 BABIP on groundballs, 11 points above average. It all added up to a 113 wRC+, impressive for a 22-year-old. Carlson has 25-15 upside, just temper expectations this season. Pay for moderate growth, likely from continued improvement with his plate discipline.

The best Cardinals hitting prospect since Oscar Taveras, Carlson was a spring training standout and would have spent the bulk of the year in the majors under normal circumstances. He eventually got the call in mid-August when the Cardinals resumed play following a team-wide COVID-19 outbreak. He struggled and was demoted in early September. While it's damning with faint praise, Carlson was the Cardinals' best hitter after getting recalled Sept. 18. Including three playoff games, he hit .288/.389/.533 over his final 54 PA. Strikeouts were still an issue over that stretch (27.8 K%), but he got a lot more patient (13.0 BB%) as he settled in against big-league pitching. He doesn't have eye-popping exit velocity readings or blazing speed (74th percentile), but the 22-year-old switch hitter projects to be good at every aspect of the game. He should open the year with a prime lineup spot and everyday role.

In just one season, Carlson went from an interesting sleeper in the Cardinals' system to a top-10 prospect in all of baseball, and he is now knocking on the door of the majors. He was the second-youngest player and second-best hitter (142 wRC+) in the Texas League, and his 10.8 BB% and 20.3 K% are marks we would expect from a player several years older. Carlson's 33.3 Oppo% and 25.9 LD% on that circuit were also elite marks and his above-average speed led to 18 steals on 25 attempts. The switch hitter posted the best statistics of his career in 18 games at Triple-A, but there was obviously a lot of noise in those numbers. Carlson has a chance to be a plus contributor in all five roto categories, but it's his high floor that makes him so appealing in dynasty and redraft leagues. Regardless of who the Cardinals open the year with in the outfield, Carlson should force the issue sometime in the first half.

More Fantasy News

At DH, batting second Monday

OFTampa Bay Rays

September 9, 2024

Carlson will start at designated hitter and bat second in Monday's game versus the Phillies.