RotoWire is excited to announce that the ATC projections, courtesy of Ariel Cohen, are available on our MLB player pages for the first time this year. The projections can be found at the bottom of the Batting Stats or Pitching Stats section, nestled between our site projections and the player's three-year averages:
(I've blacked out the team so that you can have fun guessing who this player is. The answer can be found in the comments.)
For those unfamiliar with the ATC projection system, "ATC" stands not just for the name of its creator but for Average Total Cost. The name is a nod to how the ATC projection system works: by averaging the results of several different projection systems together. Here's an explanation for how it works in Ariel's own words, taken from the projections' introductory article on FanGraphs back in 2017:
"The ATC system does not simply take a straight average of all the projection systems. Instead, each system accounts for a different weight for each statistic for which it projects. (The weights are based on historical past performance.) For example, System A might be given a 20% weight for batter homeruns, but just a 5% weight for pitcher strikeouts. System B might have a 10% weight for HRs, but just a 2% weight for Ks. And so on."
For a lengthier breakdown of the methodology behind the ATC projections, featuring headers such as "Process & Parameter Risk" and "Inter-Projection Volatility," check out Ariel's explainer from a few years later, also on FanGraphs. If you're a certain type of projections wonk, it's very much worth a read.
Wonks and non-wonks alike, we think you'll get a lot out of the ATC projections being on RotoWire for one simple reason: they're very good. They've ranked as the most accurate projections around for five consecutive years. By building on the work of the rest of the top projectionists in the business, the ATC projections wind up with a set of numbers which are not only remarkably accurate but which also serve as the best answer to the question, "What do the projections think about this guy?"
For now, you'll be able to find a player's ATC projections on his individual player page, but plans are in place to incorporate them elsewhere throughout the site. Let us know in the comments if there is an area of the site where you'd find them particularly useful.
