Mound Musings: A Look at Pitching in the AL East

Over the past five weeks, we have checked in on the spring happenings around each division. This sixth segment features a look at the American League East. Hopefully you've had a chance to weigh the pros and cons of the majority of arms competing for rotation spots, and you are prepared to field a value-laden pitching staff when baseball kicks off for the 2021 season. We're in deep stretch, so let's look at the:

American League East

Baltimore Orioles – The O's simply don't have the horses to compete in the rough and tumble AL East, and, I'll admit, I'm struggling to find positives to mention. Their "ace" heading into 2021 is lefty John Means who surprised everyone with a modestly successful run in 2019. On most teams, Means would be in the mix for the fifth or maybe the fourth slot, but here in Baltimore, he is forced to occupy the top spot. Unfortunately, his stuff just isn't that good. I'm not sure who to label their No. 2. I suppose it would be between another southpaw, Keegan Akin, and veteran Felix Hernandez. Akin has a little upside and has shown the ability to miss bats, but he has just 26 major league innings, so he's learning on the job. King Felix might make his greatest contribution as something of an assistant pitching coach, helping groom these young kids. He has a balky elbow right now, and, with more than 2,700 MLB innings, I'm not sure how much he has left. The rest of the rotation likely will be filled with potential long relievers like Bruce Zimmermann, and pitchers who are, quite frankly, better suited to Triple-A competition like Dean Kremer and Jorge Lopez. The O's did bring Matt Harvey into camp, so he could get a look, too, but he has been nothing like he was before injuries derailed his career. These guys all have two things in common. First, they likely will all see time in the rotation this year, and, secondly, most of them should not be pitching for a fantasy team. The O's do have a top-shelf pitching prospect in Grayson Rodriguez, but he hasn't pitched above Low-A and is realistically at least a year or more away, so there's no real light at the end of the tunnel just now.

With that rotation, the bullpen figures to get a lot of work, and I suppose that is a slight positive. They won't lose 162 games (I don't think), so there could be an occasional save chance. Hunter Harvey probably will eventually see the lion's share of chances, and he appears reasonably competent, but he won't be ready for Opening Day as he rehabs a strained oblique. Until early June, it looks like Tanner Scott may get the first crack at filling in for Harvey, but I can't get excited about anyone hoping to protect leads for this team. Southpaw Paul Fry, and righties Shawn Armstrong and Dillon Tate, along with potential swingman Cesar Valdez, will be his backups should Scott need a day off. But my draft day advice? Refill the coffee cup when an O's pitcher comes up.

Recapping the Orioles 

The arm to roster: Maybe Keegan Akin, as at least there is some modest upside.

He'll likely be overpriced: I can't see any (other than John Means) on a roster.

Best of the bullpen: Tanner Scott at least until Hunter Harvey returns, but I'll pass.

Boston Red Sox – The Red Sox season in 2020 can be summed up in one word – disaster. First and foremost, Chris Sale missed the shortened year recuperating from Tommy John surgery and then was delayed further with a bout with COVID. Prior to Sale blowing his elbow out, there were very few pitchers I would have preferred to own. I've loved the guy since he arrived in the majors. There is no official timeline for his return, but midseason seems likely. Yes, there is likely to be rust, but just having him on the hill again will definitely help the optimism. Eduardo Rodriguez suffered COVID-related complications and opted out, also missing all of last season. I wasn't completely sold on his breakout in 2019, and I'm even more leery now. However, an interesting trio figures to slot in behind the top two. Nathan Eovaldi is joined by newcomer Garrett Richards and veteran lefty Martin Perez. Richards, primarily because of injuries, has yet to live up to expectations, and Perez has seen his stock drop over the past couple seasons as he continues to struggle with consistency. That said, there is upside to be found if one or both can get things in sync. I remain intrigued with Richards, and I think he's a guy I might even pursue if the price is right, and it should be. Next up is the guy who might be the bargain buy of the staff. I have followed Nick Pivetta for a few seasons, and watching him this spring, he continues to tease. He looks good at times, then loses command. I see it, but only sometimes.

In many ways, the bullpen was more disastrous than the rotation in 2020. Matt Barnes is probably better-suited to a more versatile role, and he needs to throw more strikes, but there aren't really any strong alternatives, leaving Barnes the likely ninth-inning guy. His stuff fits, but he has struggled in the role. I would probably list Adam Ottavino as the top set-up guy (and insurance policy for Barnes). They'll be joined by Hirokazu Sawamura and Darwinzon Hernandez in a revamped bullpen that will hopefully be somewhat better. Matt Andriese is likely to serve as a swingman, but he would be best as a long man in the pen. Basically, this is a bullpen that could be adequate but is full of risks.

Recapping the Red Sox:

The arm to roster: I have a hunch Garrett Richards could be a pleasant surprise.

He'll likely be overpriced: Eduardo Rodriguez still doesn't move the needle for me.

Best of the bullpen: Matt Barnes is a lukewarm choice in a pen with question marks.

New York Yankees – The Yankees present a pitching staff that could be one of the best in baseball. Then again, maybe not. It all starts with Gerrit Cole. If I had to pick one SP to carry my fantasy team, he could be the guy. He might comfortably provide more than 200 innings, and the majority of those will be quality innings. The question is, who will take the mound on days Cole does not? A former No. 1, Luis Severino is rehabbing from assorted injuries and isn't expected back until midseason, so we'll set him aside for now. Another former number one, Corey Kluber, should break camp as the No. 2. He has looked pretty good this spring, but injuries have limited him to just 36 innings the past two seasons. Chances are good, but there is risk, and he will probably face workload restrictions. Yet another former No. 1 – are we seeing a trend here – is next up. Jameson Taillon has ace stuff when he's on the mound, but he's had two Tommy John surgeries, and he has logged just 37 innings since 2018. See Kluber above. Shorter outings (think five innings or so) and extra rest on occasion should help keep him fresh. Domingo German probably isn't a No. 1, but he did go 18-4 in 2019 before missing 2020 while serving a suspension. He too has looked good this spring, but how many innings can he provide? Jordan Montgomery is next up. He's a southpaw loaded with upside, but, you guessed it, he missed 2019 and was rusty in 2020. That said, he did get real innings in last year, so I expect better from him this year. We have noted the importance of depth in starting pitching, and that could clearly be even a bigger factor for the Yankees. Not to worry, there is help available. The other candidates for spot starts include Deivi Garcia and Clarke Schmidt. Both are competent, and while they appear to need a clear path to innings, opportunities should come.

The Yankees still have one of the deepest bullpens in baseball. Aroldis Chapman missed time in 2020 due to COVID, but he will again garner the majority of the saves. He's 33 now, and his health is always a concern these days, but when he's on the mound, he's lights out. Early on, they will miss their top set-up man, lefty Zach Britton who has also sometimes shared endgame duties. But, depth is plentiful. They also have Chad Green with some closing experience, plus the very capable Justin Wilson (assuming he is healthy) and Darren O'Day, along with swingman Jonathan Loaisiga and those extra starters. I do think Britton is the best bet as an insurance policy for Chapman when he returns from minor elbow surgery, but it won't be until late June.

Recapping the Yankees:

The arm to roster: Many, but Jordan Montgomery might be a bit safer than the others.

He'll likely be overpriced: Luis Severino is probably a better bet for 2022 than this year.

Best of the bullpen: Aroldis Chapman, but Zach Britton is the insurance policy.

Tampa Bay Rays – Some organizations become known for consistently developing young pitchers, and the Rays fall into that category. At first glance, their starting pitching doesn't look that formidable. But, I hesitate to write any of them off. Blake Snell and Charlie Morton are gone, leaving Tyler Glasnow as the undisputed leader of the band. He is legitimate. Glasnow broke out in 2019, and while his peripherals weren't as eye-popping last year, he is the real deal. However, after Glasnow, it's a pretty nondescript bunch. The rotation will likely include former "opener" Ryan Yarbrough who still tends to be a five-inning starter. Free agent signee Collin McHugh might be used in a similar role. The Rays also added veteran Michael Wacha, who has had just one decent season in the past five, and 41-year-old Rich Hill. He is fairly competent when healthy and might actually fit nicely into the Rays' "short start and turn it over to the pen" philosophy. That's Glasnow and four question marks. And, what should we expect from Chris Archer? The Rays tried to unlock his potential with little success, dealt him away, and now he's back. Have they discovered a new secret to success? Others under consideration for at least occasional starting assignments include a true swingman in Trevor Richards, and Josh Fleming, I actually think Richards could garner some fantasy value as he often pitches in the middle of undecided games. I also want to mention one very deep sleeper. Brent Honeywell shouldn't be forgotten even though he has missed three full seasons due to injuries. He is unlikely to make an impact this year, but dynasty owners might want to keep an eye on him. It's an intriguing scenario. The Rays find ways to get the most out of their pitching staff, and it looks like they have assembled a staff for 2021 that could fit their approach perfectly.

The Rays' nontraditional approach to pitching relies heavily on the bullpen, and they generate the best results when they match up their arms with the upcoming hitters, regardless of the inning. My guess is Nick Anderson will lead the staff in saves, but don't be surprised if he gets the call in the sixth inning on occasion, and someone else – maybe Diego Castillo or Pete Fairbanks or Chaz Roe, or lefty Cody Reed – will be that day's closer. The bullpen is usually pretty effective, but that success comes hand-in-hand with a lot of flexibility, which creates headaches for fantasy owners.

Recapping the Rays:

The arm to roster: Tyler Glasnow is perhaps the one "traditional" starter on the staff.

He'll likely be overpriced: Chris Archer has to prove to me that things will be better.

Best of the bullpen: If you take just one, Nick Anderson, but don't bet on conformity. 

Toronto Blue Jays – There's a new team on the block in the AL East. Over recent years, the Yankees, Boston and Tampa Bay have been the contenders, but this year, Toronto appears to be all in. The Blue Jays have rebuilt their starting rotation over the past couple years, and the jury is still out on whether it will be enough. I think it will be. Certainly at the top of the list is southpaw Hyun Jin Ryu who was signed in the offseason in 2020. He was one of the best starters in baseball last year, and, as long as he stays healthy, the wily veteran figures to again be the leader of the staff. A huge key to the season has to be young Nate Pearson. He is unlikely to be ready on Opening Day due to a groin sprain, but when he does arrive, you want to own him, especially in keeper/dynasty leagues. He's a genuine blue-chipper. Next on the list is a strikeout machine who really struggled with command last year. That has been a problem throughout his career, but I think Robbie Ray is poised to take the next step. That trio has the potential to be formidable on a team loaded with young hitting talent. Things do drop off a bit after them, but there are still a couple guys who could step up. Steven Matz is a poor man's version of Ray with fewer strikeouts and, sadly, similar command inconsistencies, but he has looked pretty good this spring. Tanner Roark and perhaps swingman Ross Stripling should fill the fifth and sixth slots. Both have both enjoyed moments in the sun, but neither is likely to qualify as a top-of-the-rotation mainstay. At a decent price, they could help fill in at the back of a fantasy rotation. There are a couple others to monitor. I like Thomas Hatch who is currently sidelined with what is being called "mild elbow irritation," but if/when healthy, he could move up the food chain. Lastly, keep an eye on Ryan Borucki. He is currently slated for bullpen work and needs to prove his elbow issues are behind him, but Borucki caught my eye in 2018, and he potentially could be a useful piece at the back of a rotation if the opportunity arises.

Things appeared fairly settled in the Toronto bullpen heading into the season, but things changed when free agent signee Kirby Yates suffered a pronator flexor strain. He has now been ruled out for the season, and Tommy John surgery is on the table. He will likely be the closer when he returns, but that will be 2022. Look for Jordan Romano and maybe Rafael Dolis to fill the void. Southpaw Borucki could also jump into the mix depending on the matchups. Veteran David Phelps will do some set-up work, and Tyler Chatwood can contribute if he throws strikes. Overall, I still like this pen, but the loss of Yates is a major setback.

Recapping the Blue Jays:

The arm to roster: Nate Pearson (eventually), but I anticipate a big year from Robbie Ray.

He'll likely be overpriced: Tanner Roark gives the Jays innings, but he's iffy in fantasy.

Best of the bullpen: Kirby Yates will be the guy if the recent health concerns go away.

Next week, we'll jump into an expanded view of the Endgame Odyssey with an eye for potential fantasy value. Stay well my friends!