When preparing for fantasy baseball drafts, we hope to identify players that should provide more value relative to their ADP. Today we'll examine a few hitters that have an ADP past pick 300 in the NFBC, and try to figure out if they are values or not. For all of these hitters, it's fair to wonder if 2019 will forever be the outlier.
Manuel Margot (OF - TB)
NFBC ADP: 324
A defense-first outfielder, Margot ranked in the 99th percentile in Outs Above Average. Margot battled a hamstring injury that caused him to miss some time in 2021, yet he compiled double-digit home runs (10) and stolen bases (13) with a .254 batting average in 464 plate appearances. The explanation for his low projection-based ranking on RotoWire involves the projected at-bats (374). Of course, if we bump up the playing time, Margot's value increases.
None of the offensive tools stand out with a career 19.9 LD%, 36.4 FB%, and 3.6 Barrel%. However, in 2021, Margot reached a career-best 5.1 Barrel%, which, unfortunately, remained lackluster in the 20th percentile. On a positive note, Margot boasts above-average plate discipline skills with a career Z-Contact of 88.3% and an overall 80.8 Contact%, about 4-5 percentage points above the league averages.
Margot's 2022 Outlook
Margot's projected lineup spot is in the bottom third. However, 28.6% of the time, Margot batted first or second in 2021. Margot also batted fourth through seventh just under 62% of the time. Even with any offensive struggles for Margot,
When preparing for fantasy baseball drafts, we hope to identify players that should provide more value relative to their ADP. Today we'll examine a few hitters that have an ADP past pick 300 in the NFBC, and try to figure out if they are values or not. For all of these hitters, it's fair to wonder if 2019 will forever be the outlier.
Manuel Margot (OF - TB)
NFBC ADP: 324
A defense-first outfielder, Margot ranked in the 99th percentile in Outs Above Average. Margot battled a hamstring injury that caused him to miss some time in 2021, yet he compiled double-digit home runs (10) and stolen bases (13) with a .254 batting average in 464 plate appearances. The explanation for his low projection-based ranking on RotoWire involves the projected at-bats (374). Of course, if we bump up the playing time, Margot's value increases.
None of the offensive tools stand out with a career 19.9 LD%, 36.4 FB%, and 3.6 Barrel%. However, in 2021, Margot reached a career-best 5.1 Barrel%, which, unfortunately, remained lackluster in the 20th percentile. On a positive note, Margot boasts above-average plate discipline skills with a career Z-Contact of 88.3% and an overall 80.8 Contact%, about 4-5 percentage points above the league averages.
Margot's 2022 Outlook
Margot's projected lineup spot is in the bottom third. However, 28.6% of the time, Margot batted first or second in 2021. Margot also batted fourth through seventh just under 62% of the time. Even with any offensive struggles for Margot, the defense should keep him in the lineup. Unfortunately, it's a pitcher-friendly park in Tampa Bay with a 0.96 wOBA (No. 27) and 0.92 Home Run Park Factor (No. 22) at Tropicana Field. With more plate appearances, Margot has the potential for 15-18 home runs with 20 stolen bases.
Hunter Dozier (3B/OF)
NFBC ADP: 348
Dozier's 2020 season could get thrown out since he dealt with COVID-19. Then in 2021, Dozier dealt with a thumb issue to start the season but didn't hit the injured list for that reason. Dozier only hit the IL once due to a concussion in May.
His LD% dropped to 19.5%, with a slight increase in GB% (38.1%) and FB% (42.5%). However, the contact quality finished slightly above average with an 8.8 Barrel% (53rd percentile) and a 113 mph maximum exit velocity (88th percentile).
Dozier notably chased more often with a 34.1 O-Swing% compared to 30.1% in 2019 and 27.4% in 2020. In Dozier's peak 2019 season, the Z-Contact was up at 90.4%, but that number decreased to 87% in 2021. Dozier's 28.4 K% from last season was an increase from 25.3% in 2019, which aligned with the dip in walk rate (9.4% to 7.9%) and OBP (.348 to .285).
Dozier's 2022 Outlook
The main question surrounding Dozier involves whether he will have a regular spot in the Royals' lineup. And did we witness Dozier's peak season in 2019? Do we have explanations for Dozier's struggles in 2020 and 2021 with COVID-19, plus the thumb injury and concussion? The ADP market leans more fade than bounceback for Dozier with a 348 ADP, more than 100 picks later than 2021. Dozier's upside scenario involves 20-25 home runs and 5-8 stolen bases with a .240-.250 batting average.
Christian Walker (1B - ARI)
NFBC ADP: 393
We have a trend going with Margot, Dozier and now Walker -- all three produced well in 2019. For Walker, he crushed 29 home runs with eight stolen bases and a .259 batting average in 2019. In 2021, an errant throw hit Walker in the face, and then he battled an oblique injury that caused him to land on the IL twice in April and May. If we combine 2020 and 2021, Walker's 17 home runs, 90 runs, 80 RBI and one stolen base with a .254 batting average don't look awful.
After an 11.1% walk rate and .348 OBP for Walker in 2019, those numbers have dipped to an 8.3% walk rate and .321 OBP (2020-2021). Walker swung more at 53.7% in 2021, up from 48.7% in 2019. Walker's zone swing and chase rates jumped as evidenced by the 78 Z-Swing% (2019) to 83.4% in 2021, plus a 28.2 O-Swing% (2019) jumping to 32.2% (2021). Meanwhile, Walker's contact rates have remained similar over the past three seasons. If Walker reverts to the 2019 approach and doesn't deal with an oblique injury, we could see the power and counting stats rebound in 2022.
Walker's Batted-Ball Data
Some may still be dreaming of Walker's 2019 when he had a 13.1 Barrel% (90th percentile), .364 xwOBA (82nd percentile) and 95.3 mph EV on FB/LD (No. 30). In 2020 and 2021, Walker posted an identical 6.4 Barrel% (29th percentile). Walker's EV on FB/LD dropped significantly to 92.4 mph (No. 143) in 2021.
As expected, Walker's SLG on all pitches dropped, most notably on breaking pitches (.320 SLG in 2021 versus .460 SLG in 2019). Against fastballs, Walker's SLG didn't drop as much, but it's still notable with a .422 SLG in 2021 compared to a .497 SLG in 2019. The performance struggles align with the downward trajectory of Walker's skills, but the oblique injury probably contributed to it.
Walker's 2022 Outlook
For Walker, it comes down to whether you expect the contact quality to bounce back closer to 2019 or not. Assuming Walker is healthy, the exit velocities should improve since Walker typically boasted a maxEV in the top 25% of the league from 2019 to 2021. Hopefully, Walker shows the patience and OBP skills like in 2019, or he'll be on the waiver wire, even in 15-team leagues. That said, Walker is expected to bat in the heart of the Diamondbacks' lineup with a chance to rack up RBI. Fortunately, Walker's ADP allows us to take the chance with a player that has room for a positive return.
