This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets: Expert Bets & Props to Target for July 6
There are 13 games set to be played across baseball Thursday, some of which have early start times. Let's turn our attention to the later slate and highlight some wagers that could prove to be profitable.
Mike Barner's season record: 14-16 (-4.65 units)
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Cleveland Guardians 
vs. Kansas City Royals 
After a difficult series against the Braves, the Guardians will play what should be a much easier foe in the Royals. The Royals are battling with the Athletics for the worst record in baseball and they are just 12-31 on the road. The Guardians have a significant starting pitching advantage for this game with Tanner Bibee facing off against Jordan Lyles. Bibee has a 3.46 ERA that is supported by a 3.63 FIP, while Lyles has allowed at least four runs in 13 of his 16 starts. On the road, he has an 8.02 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. Taking the Guardians to win on the moneyline for the entire game comes with a lot of juice, but rolling with them on the -0.5 runline for the first five innings is more appealing at better odds.
With the expectation that the Guardians will score early and often against Lyles, targeting their leadoff hitter Steven Kwan to score at least one run is appealing. He has crossed home plate at least one time in six of his last seven games, and has 59 runs scored over 85 games overall. He is an excellent contact hitter, pairing his 9.9 percent walk rate with just a 12.2 percent strikeout rate.
MLB Best Bets for Guardians vs. Royals
- Steven Kwan over 0.5 runs scored (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 unit
- Guardians -0.5 runline first five innings (-150 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 unit
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Arizona Diamondbacks 
vs. New York Mets 
The Mets have been one of the most disappointing teams in baseball with their 40-46 record, while the Diamondbacks have exceeded expectations with a 50-37 mark that has them sitting atop the NL West standings. The Mets have taken the first two games in this series, winning both in very different ways. They won the opener 8-5, while pulling off a 2-1 win Wednesday. Don't expect a pitchers' duel Thursday with Carlos Carrasco starting for the Mets. For the season, he has a 5.94 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. He has just 39 strikeouts over 53 innings, which has resulted in him recording four or fewer strikeouts in nine of his 11 starts. They might be difficult to come by again, considering that the Diamondbacks have struck out the fourth-fewest times in baseball.
The Mets could also score plenty of runs with Ryne Nelson starting for the Diamondbacks. He doesn't miss many bats, generating a 16.5 percent strikeout rate that has contributed to his 4.67 ERA and 4.45 FIP. Left-handed hitters have a .366 wOBA against him, so that could mean a big game is coming for Brandon Nimmo. He enters with a .390 OBP over his last 13 games. With him being on base so often, he has scored at least one run in nine of those 13 games.
MLB Best Bets for Diamondbacks vs. Mets
- Brandon Nimmo to record a run scored (-120 FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 unit
- Carlos Carrasco under 4.5 strikeouts (-160 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 unit
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Steven Kwan over 0.5 runs scored (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 unit
- Guardians -0.5 runline first five innings (-150 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 unit
- Brandon Nimmo to record a run scored (-120 FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 unit
- Carlos Carrasco under 4.5 strikeouts (-160 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 unit
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