This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Picks: Expert MLB Props for Tuesday, August 6
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New York Mets 
at Colorado Rockies 
I have not had the best feel for New York outright the last two days, I may have to turn in my Mets Fan card. How about we look at some props instead? New York visits Colorado tonight, their third city in three days, shades of Frank Sharp of Sharp Records, although I imagine they flew.
Luis Severino Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100 DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Mets signed the one-time Yankee future ace to a one-year, $13 million "pillow" contract this offseason in a deal that made all the sense in the world for both parties. Severino's once super-promising career hit some major speed bumps in recent years as he threw just 18 innings total between 2019 and 2021. He then threw to a disastrous 6.65 ERA in 2023 ahead of hitting free agency. For the Mets, 2024 looked like a transition year as they focused their adds on short contracts. If the season went well, great, they now had nice pieces to carry them for a year. If the season went poorly, any of those pieces that looked ok could now fetch back longer-term assets in trades.
The season of course has gone pretty well as the Mets sit in the middle of a multi-team scrum for one of the three Wild Card spots, and Severino has certainly contributed to all that. He has gone 7-4 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, solid but not quite ace-like. While both numbers closely resemble his career marks of 3.81 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, he gets there in a very different way. Severino has a career 25 percent strikeout rate, including 27.7 percent as recently as 2022. In 2024, that has dipped to 18.2 percent on a career-low 8.4 percent SwStr percentage rate.
So why the over on his strikeout prop? Well, for starters, the price is more than commensurate with his current strikeout level. Severino has struck out 96 batters in 21 starts, or 4.57 strikeouts per start. And, most importantly, he will not exactly face the 1927 Yankees here, or even the 2015 Royals for that matter. The 2024 Rockies carry a whopping 26 percent strikeout rate on the season, and a league-high 29.5 percent in the last 30 days. The Rockies might field an entire lineup of guys with at least a 25 percent strikeout rate in this stretch. Even their best hitters like Brenton Doyle (30.2%) and Ezequiel Tovar (28.6%) have trouble here. Michael Toglia has nine homers in the month but a 34.7 percent strikeout rate. Playing at Coors does not improve these numbers much as the Rockies have a teamwide 24 percent strikeout rate at home.
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Brandon Nimmo Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-110 DraftKings Sportbsook)
I will take a walk down Narrative Street here. Nimmo hails from somewhat nearby Cheyenne, Wyoming, and always has a pack of family and friends cheering him on at Coors. He always seems to deliver for them as he has a .316/.423/.526 triple slash line vs. Colorado. The Rockies start lefty Kyle Freeland, but Nimmo has modestly reverse career splits with a .270 batting average vs. southpaws as opposed to .263 vs. righties. In 2024, he has gone full reverse: .282 vs. lefties and just .214 vs. righties. In addition, Nimmo hits much better on the road, both this season (.263 vs. .205) and in his career (.279 vs. .250).
Further, Nimmo should bat early (second in the order) and often as this game has a total of 11.5 runs. Expect at least five plate appearances, including at least a couple with runners on, which should lead, hopefully, to some nice production.
