This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Happy July 4th. Cheers to grilled and smoked meats, fireworks, a few libations, and hopefully winning some money! While there's a full slate of games throughout the holiday, FanDuel's main contest only spans the evening, with games going off between 6:40 and 9:10 p.m. EDT. We're limited to just five games here, which is going to make differentiating rosters a tad challenging. Run totals sit between 7.5 and 9.5, so no major offensive explosions are expected. As can be inferred from that, half of our 10 pitching options are all priced at $9,000 or higher. Thankfully, weather appears clear Tuesday evening, so we won't likely see the slate trimmed.
Pitching
Shane Bieber, CLE vs. ATL ($9,800): To be clear, I'm not advocating for Bieber as your pitcher. This is just a simple thought that in looking at the top arms, he's by far the most likely to be ignored given the matchup with Atlanta, making for a clear and obvious GPP contrarian choice. Bieber's been very hit or miss this season, further personifying the GPP contrarian angle. He's allowed one run or none in three of his last five starts, but nine runs in the other two. The strikeouts appear to be returning, with at least eight in three of his last four. There are far safer choices, but Bieber certainly offers potential with low usage.
Joe Musgrove, SD vs. LAA ($9,100): Musgrove looks like a decent floor play Tuesday. He's earned four straight quality starts and six in his last seven, just once allowing three earned runs in that stretch. The Angels rank fourth offensively off righties, but with just a .337 wOBA and a reasonably targetable 23.3 percent strikeout rate. This matchup has the lowest run total, and I'll back Musgrove at a discount to duel with his adversary in Shohei Ohtani.
JP Sears, OAK at DET ($8,200): This price point isn't exactly a discount, but it's probably the lowest I'm willing to go on this slate -- although Kolby Allard has merit if you're just willing to punt, hope for 20 points and spend freely offensively. Sears has at least five strikeouts in five straight outings, twice going seven innings, so there is potential for a big outing. That's aided by Detroit's below-average .310 wOBA and 98 wRC+ off lefties.
Top Targets
Pirates' starter Luis Ortiz is getting shelled by lefties to the tune of a .467 wOBA and 1.097 OPS. While he may not have the same upside as other high-salary options, as he's homered just once since June 11, Freddie Freeman ($4,100) looks like the ideal building block offensively.
Outside of paying up for Ronald Acuna ($4,800), which is almost always a good idea, the top-priced bats all seem to have some warts. Luis Robert ($4,100) is as hot as any batter going right now and is stealing bases too, creating multiple paths to success, but he's far better against lefties and is stuck facing Chris Bassitt today. In the same vein, Jose Ramirez ($3,900) hits righties far better than lefties, so the matchup with Allard isn't perfect. But I don't trust the Atlanta southpaw to last deep into the game, and Ramirez is almost always involved when the Guardians scratch.
Bargain Bats
The Dodgers have ample lefties to consider in the plus spot mentioned above, so Freeman isn't a requirement by any stretch. David Peralta ($2,400) has quietly hit safely in nine straight while scoring five times, giving him a shot at double-digit FDP.
With such a small slate, it's difficult to fade any game or team, so do we have to consider Oakland bats agaimnst Tarik Skubal? It's not an emphatic yes, and yes I know he's been in a major slump lately, but Brent Rooker ($2,800) is priced favorably to exploit the matchup. He's quietly hit safely in three straight, including a homer, and has a .397 wOBA, 162 wRC+ and .271 ISO off lefties.
He's got only three homers all year, and the contact skills haven't been there much either, but if you're a BvP guy, Alejandro Kirk ($2,400) is 4-for-9 (.444) with three homers in his career against Lucas Giolito.
Stack to Consider
Padres vs. Shohei Ohtani: Fernando Tatis ($4,100), Juan Soto ($3,700), Ha-Seong Kim ($3,000)
This small slate doesn't make for easy stacking, especially when teams like the Dodgers are going to be super obvious. Pairing the Padres with Bieber above can absolutely blow up in your face, but if by chance they both pop you've got yourself a winning, and potentially unique, lineup construction. I'm not sure splits matter a ton when facing Ohtani, but Soto has a .428 wOBA, 175 wRC+ and .266 ISO off righties, all team highs. Tatis sits with a .354 wOBA, second on the team, and has seven hits in his last three games. Kim likely gives us a leadoff hitter to round this out, and he's hit safely in six of eight with two homers. GPPs only here, but why not take a shot? Ohtani has even been homer prone at times this year.
