This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A 12-game slate awaits Friday evening. Only seven of those had lines available as I sit down to write late Thursday out west rather than my Virginia home, so flying a tad blind relative to usual, with only Washington vs. Texas presenting with a 10+ run total. Weather has been iffy on the east coast, but for now, we're looking relatively clear.
Despite the slate's size, only two pitchers are priced in five figures, which suggests some higher run totals are coming. Eight more are priced in the 9k range, so we've seemingly got ample depth to choose from. Boston is the only team without a listed starter. Keep an eye on who gets the nod and if FanDuel adds them to the player pool, as they face Oakland, immediately creating interest.
Conversely, there are six pitchers priced under $7,000, which suggests there are a plethora of offenses we can target, making paying up for pitching very viable.
Pitching
Andrew Abbott, CIN at MIL ($10,600): Most nights, it's lazy to preview the slate's highest-priced arm, but there seems some merit, as I think he could be overlooked as the name doesn't fully match the price, even if the form does. Abbott has had a 34 FDP floor since coming to the majors, and has fanned 30 across his last 19.2 innings. He went for 46 FDP in his debut, coming against these Brewers, and only got one strikeout per his six innings. There's room for more here. Milwaukee fans at a 27.6 percent clip off lefties with only an 81 wRC+.
Bailey Ober, MIN vs. BAL ($9,800): I'm leary of pitchers making consecutive starts against the same lineup, especially one as decent at the Orioles. But Ober earned 55 FDP against them last time out, fanning eight across seven shutout innings, earning his fourth straight quality start. His .297 wOBA at home is solid, but his Ks are far higher on the road and his 4.69 xFIP at home also suggest regression could be coming. But the results speak for themselves, giving him a viable floor and elite ceiling every time out.
Aaron Civale, CLE vs. KC ($8,800): Civale's stats are all over the place. He's turned in two quality starts in his last three and sits with a respectable 2.96 ERA, but a 4.72 xFIP, so regression could be coming. But against the Royals, perhaps not. His strikeouts are minimal (6.9 per nine), but could play up against a Royals lineup fanning 24.7 percent of the time off righties. His walk rate is high, but Kansas City walks just 6.9 percent of the time. Civale limits homers and is a ground ball guy (41.9 percent). It suggests he can at worst limit damage, get 30+ FDP and free up the budget for offensive spending.
Top Targets
Luis Robert ($4,200) has become a set it and forget it play this season against lefties. He's boasting a .482 wOBA, 216 wRC+ and .358 ISO in this spot. His price has risen enough where we have to consider not using him, but the depth of this slate should mean he isn't still super obvious.
Trevor Williams doesn't have poor numbers against lefties, but that doesn't mean we should fade Corey Seager ($4,200). He's hit safely in nine straight and 11 of his last 12, collecting 19 hits and scoring nine times in that span. He has a .450 wOBA, 194 wRC+ and .277 ISO off righties overall.
Bargain Bats
Patrick Bailey ($3,100) is an interesting case Friday. He isn't ideal occupying the 1B/C spot due to a seeming lack of upside. But he continues to hit, doing so successfully in 10 of his last 12, and boasts a .512 wOBA, 228 wRC+ and .333 ISO in 36 plate appearances off lefties. Rockies starter Austin Gomber has been oddly tougher on opposite-handed bats, but we want some shares against him, and Bailey could make for a solid UTL lineup roundout.
Lane Thomas ($3,500) isn't priced as a major bargain, and I question how many at bats he'll get against Cody Bradford, but this is a game where we might want sides of both offenses, and his .471 wOBA, 198 wRC+ and .298 ISO off lefties look inviting.
Boston bats figure to be super popular against Luis Medina, but I think this is a spot to be a tad contrarian. He's got targetable splits against lefties, which Boston is full of, but is also allowing a .393 wOBA to righties on the road. Justin Turner ($3,400) is hot, with four multi-hit games in his last five and 11 hits overall in his last six. Adam Duvall ($2,900) isn't in great form, but has a .260 ISO and 119 wRC+ off righties to date.
Finally, for GPPs, I wouldn't shy away from the Cubs offense. They hit lefties well overall, and while Carlos Rodon faired extremely well in his rehab assignment, his New York debut is a different animal. Seiya Suzuki ($2,800) is 6-for-11 over his last three, and Miguel Amaya ($2,300) has been great off lefties (.428 wOBA, 171 wRC+) should he draw a start.
Stacks to Consider
Twins vs. Cole Irvin: Byron Buxton ($3,500), Carlos Correa ($3,300), Donovan Solano ($2,600)
Irvin just faced the Twins, and limited them to one run across five innings. But he allowed six hits and three walks in that outing, suggesting more luck than success. He's been getting ripped by righties overall, and moreso on the road, allowing a massive .449 wOBA and 1.079 OPS. Minnesota doesn't have targetable splits overall, so Irvin is the sole target. Buxton and Correa give us big potential at modest prices and are about the only sure things to be locked into the top of the order. The third piece likely needs to be a wait and see thing, as Minnesota has a lot of left-handed bats we likely shouldn't be interested in. Solando is cheap, could slot in over Edouard Julien near the top of the order, and has five hits in his last three.
Diamondbacks vs. Rich Hill: Ketel Marte ($3,600), Christian Walker ($3,400), Evan Longoria ($2,800)
Hill has allowed at least three runs in each of his last four starts, allowing 31 hits/walks across 21.2 innings. And with Corbin Carroll likely out, there's value across the Diamondbacks lineup to do the heavy lifting. Marte looks like a great stand alone option, sporting a .380 wOBA and 137 wRC+ off lefties. Walker gives us a power play with a .293 ISO to go with a decent .363 wOBA. And Longoria offers upside at his price point. He should safely slot into the lineup, and continues to mash lefties for a .397 wOBA, 149 wRC+ and .313 ISO.
