This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
I hope had a nice weekend, and maybe you even had some DFS success. It may be Monday now, and maybe you are one of the many people getting back to work, but don't miss out on the DFS opportunities coming your way. There are seven MLB games starting at 7:20 p.m. ET or later, and here are my DFS recommendations.
Pitching
Dylan Cease, SD at COL ($10,000): I believe so little in this Rockies team I'm willing to roster an opposing pitcher at Coors Field. Now, I wouldn't do that with any pitcher, but Cease has looked much more like the guy in 2022 who had a 2.20 ERA. He'll never be Greg Maddux when it comes to avoiding walks, but through four starts with San Diego, Cease has an 1.99 ERA with his usual high strikeout rate and low homer rate. The Rockies are in the bottom five in runs scored, so even in Denver, a top-level pitcher is worth selecting for your lineup.
Chris Paddack, MIN vs. CWS ($6,300): This, on the other hand, is purely a matchup play. Most of us figured the White Sox would be bad offensively, but, like, how are they this bad? Chicago has scored 45 runs through 21 games, and every other team in MLB has crossed 60 at this point. The White Sox might make the 2023 Athletics look like the 1927 Yankees in comparison. So yeah, maybe Paddack can handle them. Most pitchers can.
Top Targets
Since 2022, Austin Riley ($3,500) has a .987 OPS versus lefties, and a .919 OPS at home. Southpaw Ryan Weathers has a 2.70 ERA through four starts in 2024, but a 4.11 FIP. Given that he has a career 5.52 ERA and a 5.39 FIP, I expect Weathers' numbers are going to get worse. Riley could help that cause Monday.
For years, Pete Alonso ($3,500) paired average with power. Last year his average dipped considerably, but he still slugged .504 with 46 homers, and he has six homers to start 2024. Alonso is just so strong and has such an effective power swing that he can fall into 35 homers. It also helps him to be away from Citi Field, as since 2020 he has slugged .499 at home (great!) and .520 on the road (even better!). Keaton Winn has a 4.48 ERA for his career, and while it's early, righties have hit .279 against him to start the year.
Bargain Bats
The hope with Nolan Gorman ($2,800) is that he will flash his power against righties, and indeed he has a .450 OPS against right handers in his career. Interestingly, though, he's also slugged .481 at home, compared to .410 on the road. This game is in St. Louis, and Brandon Pfaadt has not built upon any promise he showed in the playoff. Well, he's been better, but by that I mean he's posted a 5.32 ERA and allowed 1.52 home runs per nine innings.
Arizona wanted some lefty power, and so it did what teams do in that scenario: They signed Joc Pederson ($2,800). Since 2022, Pederson has slugged .484 against righties. I believe in Lance Lynn's start to the same degree I believe in Weathers', which is to say not at all. Lynn has a 2.18 ERA, but a 4.91 FIP, and he allowed three homers in one start against the Marlins. The Marlins!
Stack to Consider
Padres at Rockies (Austin Gomber): Manny Machado ($3,800), Jurickson Profar ($3,400), Xander Bogaerts ($3,300)
While I recommended Cease at Coors Field…it's still Coors Field. This is still a hitter's haven, and the Padres have a lineup actually capable of taking advantage. On top of that, Gomber has a 5.21 ERA since joining the Rockies, and he hasn't allowed fewer than 1.44 homers per nine innings in that time. It's not all Coors, either, as he has a 4.84 ERA on the road since 2022. Since Gomber is a lefty, I did decide to go with three Padres who hit right handed, but Gomber did allow southpaws to hit a staggering .372 against him in 2023. He's…he's just not a good pitcher.
Machado struggled some last year, but he still hit 30 homers in 138 games. This season he's getting to DH, which means more focus on hitting. Additionally, since 2022 he has an .881 OPS versus lefties. Profar's hot start – he's slashed .288/.402/.452 – is one I am skeptical of, but he has had his moments in his journeyman career. The switch hitter also had a .774 OPS against lefties last season. Bogaerts picked up a couple hits and a homer Sunday, hopefully the beginning of him putting his slow start behind him. In his first season as a Padre he hit .285 with 19 homers and 19 stolen bases, so I think he'll be fine. While he's been mediocre against lefties in 2024, his numbers are dragged down by being bad against righties, and over the last three seasons he has an .891 OPS versus southpaws.
