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MLB Bets Today: Expert Picks and Predictions for Thursday, July 6
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Last article: 2-2 (-0.38 RW Bucks)
2023 regular-season record: 11-18-1 (-7.88 RW Bucks)
I'm honing in on the final game of the slate Thursday night and suggesting a trio of wagers, including a pair of Dodgers player props.
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Pittsburgh Pirates 
at Los Angeles Dodgers 
Best Bets
The Pirates will have a tricky matchup early with Julio Urias on the mound for the Dodgers, but the talented left-hander may not be in for much more than five innings. Urias was lifted after 66 pitches in his first start in over a month on Saturday after coming off the injured list due to a hamstring issue.
The southpaw has also had trouble keeping the ball in the park (2.2 HR/9), which could certainly contribute to at least a run or two for Pittsburgh while he's in there.
Once Urias exits, Pittsburgh's hitters will get a crack at an overworked Dodgers bullpen that features three relievers with pitch counts of at least 40 over the last three games, as well as another two with 28 and 31.
The Pirates are averaging a solid 4.3 runs per road game this season as well, and Pittsburgh has put up six runs per contest in six games versus Los Angeles.
Game Focus Best Bet: Pirates Over 3.5 runs (+104 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
While I expect some later-game success for the Pirates, I can see Urias keeping Pittsburgh's bats to only modest production while he's in. The Pirates have a 30.8 percent strikeout rate, .205 average, .270 wOBA and 66 wRC+ against lefties on the road in the last month.
Urias has also been at his best at home, where he's produced a 1.99 ERA, 0.73 WHIP and 9.1 K/9. Even if Urias gives up a long ball, I can still see the combination of what might be a relatively short stint on the mound and the Pirates' general ineptitude versus lefties allowing this prop to hit.
Game Focus Best Bet: Julio Urias Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (+100 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
Freddie Freeman is in the midst of a highly atypical home run drought, and the conditions could be ripe for him to break out of it Thursday at a fantastic price.
Freeman has left the yard just once in his last 20 games, a span of 91 plate appearances. To offer some perspective on how rare that is for the perennial All-Star, he'd averaged a home run every 23.3 plate appearances this season prior to that stretch.
Pirates starter Johan Oviedo has done an above-average job keeping the ball in the park, but four of the six homers he's surrendered this season have come off left-handed bats. Additionally, his two most frequently thrown pitches to left-handed hitters, the four-seam fastball and the slider, happen to be two Freeman does damage against.
The talented veteran has hit eight of his 14 homers on the season off the four-seamer and another five off breaking pitches. Even though he's struggled batting average-wise against the slider this season, Freeman hit over .300 versus the pitch in the last two years and has a .359 wOBA against this season.
Finally, it's worth noting Pirates relievers have given up six homers to left-handed hitters in the last month, tying for the fifth most in baseball during that span.
Game Focus Best Bet: Freddie Freeman To Hit A HR (+500 on Bet365 Sportsbook)
MLB Game Focus Best Bets for Pirates at Dodgers:
Here's a recap of my Game Focus Best Bets for Thursday:
- Pirates Over 3.5 runs (+104 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Julio Urias Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (+100 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Freddie Freeman To Hit A HR (+500 on Bet365 Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
