This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Wednesday, August 7
- Year-to-Date Record: 129-121-1
- Prior article: 3-0 ( +2.75 units)
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MLB Betting Tips
MLB SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at starting pitcher (full season) and team (last 30 days) home/road splits and vs. right-handed pitchers/left-handed pitchers splits to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check the weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. Summer temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game. The bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a first five innings (F5) play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution against playing any totals (especially team totals) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an under.
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MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
Detroit Tigers 
at Seattle Mariners 
There are not many times where you can see a total of 6.0 and it usually means two of the best pitchers combined with weak hitting offenses in extreme pitchers' parks. We get that with Tarik Skubal and George Kirby, especially in Seattle, where Kirby has strong home splits.
Kirby is on a run where he has not allowed more than three earned runs in 12 straight starts, and that only happened once. He allowed two runs or fewer in every other start. Most of Skubal's worst starts have come on the road, but they have also been against strong offensive teams.
This all has the making of a 2-1 game and could even be scoreless after five innings.
MLB Picks for Tigers at Mariners
- Tigers/Mariners UNDER 6 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM -105)
- Tigers/Mariners exact score of 0-0 for 0.25 units (DraftKings +650)
Tampa Bay Rays 
at St. Louis Cardinals 
We have two strong starting pitchers (Taj Bradley and Erick Fedde) and some heavy under trends with both teams in this game tonight. The total has gone under in the last four out of five games in the series. The Rays are 7-2 to the under in their last nine, and Bradley has a 7-3 record to the under in his last 10.
Neither team is lighting the world on fire on the offensive side either, so look for the 7.5 total before it drops to 7.0.
MLB Picks for Rays at Cardinals
- Rays/Cardinals UNDER 7.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM -105)
San Diego Padres 
at Pittsburgh Pirates 
Michael King has developed into one of the better pitchers in baseball and is helping offset the Juan Soto trade. King has been lights out since May 27, allowing fewer than two earned runs in 10 out of 11 starts. His WAR of 2.5 is the second-best in baseball since May 27th. I would challenge anyone to have known that. Even I did not know.
While Marco Gonzales has a 3.72 ERA and 3.38 in his last seven starts, he does not get enough swing and misses to offset this Padres lineup (24 strikeouts in 34 innings).
MLB Picks for San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates
- Padres -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM +106)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Tigers/Mariners UNDER 6 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM -105)
- Tigers/Mariners exact score of 0-0 for 0.25 units (DraftKings +650)
- Rays/Cardinals UNDER 7.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM -105)
- Padres -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM +106)
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