Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

The curse of the Minor League Barometer struck early this year with Riley Greene suffering a broken foot Friday and will start the season on the Injured List instead of in centerfield with the big club. He was enjoying an exceptional spring by hitting .429 with two home runs and four RBI in 21 at-bats. Let's hope for a speedy recovery and that Greene makes his MLB debut sooner rather than later.

With the start of the 2022 campaign nearly upon us, here are some more prospects who could make an impact for their respective clubs during the early part of the season.

UPGRADE

Nick Lodolo, P, CIN – Lodolo doesn't get the fanfare of rotation-mate Hunter Greene, as the latter lights up the radar gun into the triple-digits. But he knows how to pitch, and his hard slider and sinker generate plenty of swings and misses. Injuries to Luis Castillo and Mike Minor along with the jettisoning of Sonny Gray have left Lodolo with a possible starting job for the Reds coming out of spring training. The 24-year-old southpaw has fantastic minor-league numbers with a 2.35 ERA and 108:11 K:BB in just 69 innings. A combination of the pandemic, a 2021 shoulder injury and the relative ease with which Lodolo mowed down the competition otherwise limited his resume, but that doesn't mean he's unprepared to take hold of a rotation spot for the rebuilding Reds.

Grayson Rodriguez, P, BAL – Speaking of rebuilding, the Orioles seem to be in a perpetual one with no end in sight. Rodriguez does give a glimmer of hope, and he finally may be nearing his premiere in Baltimore. The 22-year-old righty dismantled the competition last season finishing at Double-A with a 2.60 ERA and 121:22 K:BB over 79.2 innings. Rodriguez offers three plus-pitches and his curveball is not bad as a fourth one. The O's repeatedly have shown little indication they're in a hurry to promote him. But if Rodriguez starts the season at Triple-A with little resistance, the calls will get louder and louder to bring him to Camden Yards. With Adley Rutschman's debut also on the horizon, the Orioles franchise could finally be coming out of hibernation.

Matt Brash, P, SEA – Brash has been named to the M's starting rotation managing two scoreless outings during spring training while fanning seven batters from five innings. He flashed significant upside with a 98-mph fastball along with a stellar slider while mixing in curveballs and changeups, but the fastball/slider combo remains the most devastating duo in his arsenal. Brash pitched 55 innings at Double-A last year - his highest level of competition to date - but struck out 80 batters over that span and opposing hitters batted .162 against. He's skyrocketed up the prospect charts, even ahead of former first-round pick George Kirby, who will begin the season at Double-A.

Caleb Kilian, P, CHC – Kilian was the chief return from the Giants in the Kris Bryant deal. He ended up being named the MVP of the Arizona Fall League championship game and appears destined for a rotation slot with the Cubs before the season is through. Kilian enjoyed a breakout 2021 posting a 2.42 ERA and 112:13 K:BB in 100.1 innings mostly at Double-A. He has exceptional control, but his fastball showed added heat as last season went on and that only helped enhance his stock.  Though Kilian will start the season in Triple-A, the back end of the Cubs rotation is far from set. If he comes out of the gate missing a bevy of bats, his stint in the minors could be short-lived.

CHECK STATUS

JJ Bleday, OF, MIA – The No. 4 overall pick in 2019 struggled last season slashing just .212/.323/.373 with 12 home runs and 54 RBI across 110 contests at Double-A. Bleday failed to make consistent contact, though he did draw 64 walks. The Marlins added World Series MVP Jorge Soler to their outfield during the offseason as well as Avisail Garcia, so the Fish are once again in no rush to call Bleday up in 2022. The cupboard remains rather bare for the Marlins in terms of outfield prospects, which helps his cause. The Marlins will give Bleday every chance to succeed given the investment and the fact they're unlikely to contend in 2022. However, his prospect star has certainly dimmed considerably.

Josh Winder, P, MIN – Joe Ryan is the Twins' Opening Day starter and boasts massive strikeout potential. Winder is the same age, but is going to start off in the minors after vying for a rotation spot during spring training. However, he could be called up soon considering the Twins carry several injury-prone members of the current starting rotation, including Sonny Gray, Dylan Bundy and newly-signed Chris Archer. With Kenta Maeda shelved for the season and Randy Dobnak starting on the Injured List, Minnesota could simply be looking for a warm body at some point this season. Winder could potentially be more than that, as the 25-year-old dominated Double-A in 2021 with a 1.98 ERA and 65:10 K:BB in 54.2 innings. He had less success in four starts at Triple-A before being shut down due to shoulder fatigue, but he appears healthy now. Winder has demonstrated exceptional control while boasting two excellent off-speed pitches in a slider and changeup while his fastball sits in the mid-90s. Add in an emerging curveball, and he could end up becoming a staple of the Minnesota rotation before the campaign is done.

Jake Burger, 3B, CHW – Burger's story is one of perseverance after suffering multiple Achilles injuries since being drafted in 2017, essentially not seeing more than a handful of professional at-bats until last season at Triple-A. The former first-rounder responded by hitting .274 with 18 home runs and 54 RBI across 82 games, eventually getting a cup of coffee in the big leagues.  Unfortunately, Burger remains blocked by Yoan Moncada at third, while the 1B/DH slot is jammed up by the likes of Jose Abreu, Andrew Vaughn, and Gavin Sheets. He also battled an ankle injury earlier this spring, limiting his effectiveness. Burger has done plenty to put himself back in the conversation with the White Sox organization, but the fact remains he's buried on the depth chart.

Jordan Groshans, 3B, TOR – Groshans strained his oblique muscle at the end of March and will be sidelined for a couple of weeks. Though the injury is not considered significant, oblique injuries can be tricky and it only adds a further hurdle for him to overcome to eventually make it to the Majors. The Jays traded for Matt Chapman in the offseason and then inked him to a two-year-extension. That effectively blocks the path for Groshans, who also struggled to tap into his raw power in 2021 with only seven homers in 75 games at Double-A. He has an excellent eye at the dish, can hit for average and is just 22, but will need to show more in-game power in order to ease the concerns. Even if Groshans does, there's no guarantee he cracks the loaded Blue Jays infield this year and will begin the season at Triple-A.

DOWNGRADE

Jeter Downs, 2B, BOS – The signing of Trevor Story is really an indictment of Downs. Even though the Red Sox would never admit as much and may have simply signed the best remaining free agent available to bolster their offense, the prospect luster has faded tremendously on Downs. While he still offers that intriguing combination of power and speed, he struck out entirely too much at Triple-A last season, and his walk rate took a nosedive. One season does not make or break a prospect, but Downs never really hit for much average at any level in the minors, so that remains a red flag. Add in the emergence of 20-year-old Nick Yorke at the same position, and Downs may eventually find himself left out of Boston's future plans. The only possible saving grace for him is that Xander Bogaerts has an opt-out after this season, which could leave one of the middle infield positions wide open even with Story signed long-term.

Cody Morris, P, CLE – Morris enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2021 with a 1.62 ERA across three levels while fanning a staggering 93 batters in 61 innings and opposing batters only hitting .189 against. He did walk 20 batters, but otherwise firmly planted himself into the Guardians' future plans. Unfortunately, staying healthy has been a bit of a concern for Morris having missed the start of 2021 due to a shoulder injury, and the same will now be true for 2022. He'll be shut down for the next month, which almost certainly ends his chances for an MLB debut in the first half. A return to health could see the 25-year-old with the big club as early as the second part of the season, but that is far from a guarantee.

Josh Jung, 3B, TEX – Jung's numbers were terrific between Double-A and Triple-A last year by combining to slash .326/.398/.592 with 19 home runs and 61 RBI across 78 games. The Rangers also have a huge hole at third base. Jung injured his left shoulder lifting weights in February, which ultimately required arthroscopic surgery. He's making his progress in his rehabilitation, but the Texas organization is prepared to be without his services for all of 2022. A 2021 debut was teased before Jung had foot surgery last spring, yet now it looks like he won't see the big leagues until after he turns 25 next year. His prospect star remains bright, but the wait in the big leagues will last just a bit longer.