This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
As we continue to ease into the start of the season, we've got another day with a diverse schedule, which has led to a second consecutive five-game main slate at FanDuel, with things getting going at 7:05 p.m EDT. We've got four arms priced north of 9k, all with some question marks. Strikeouts remain the target on the mound over innings in this first week/month.
As a side note, because we're getting fewer innings but still see bats starting slower than arms, I'd be curious to monitor winning scoring totals, as the assumption is it's lower.
Pitching
While all eyes will be on Justin Verlander's ($10,400) return to action and Joe Musgrove ($10,000) also has a plus matchup, it's very difficult to not build around Chris Bassitt ($9,700) given the discount. The Nats' struck out 10 times Thursday and are coming off a potentially emotional outing against former mate Max Scherzer. Oh, and their lineup is brutal. Bassitt gets the benefit of having never faced most of this lineup before coming over from the AL, and had a 25.0 percent K rate last season.
The Nats' hadn't made their pitching plans known as of submission, so we only have nine arms from which to choose. And with two of those pitching in Coors' Field and three mentioned already above, we're left with only four others to debate. That speaks more to the necessity of paying up rather than seeking value, but if your strategy is to always save on the bump, it's a decision of Kyle Wright ($7,000) or Tony Gonsolin ($6,800) at the Rockies. Wright appears to have turned a corner, showing well in spring training following a solid World Series, and the Reds have looked lost offensively in two games. But he also allowed 20 percent of his fly balls to leave the yard, and fanned only 8.5 per nine. Gonsolin counters with a 12.9 percent HR/FB ratio and fanned 10.5 per nine. He's the superior talent, and if we get seasonably cool weather, the stadium factor isn't as scary.
Top Targets
For as many bats as there seem to be behind pitchers, Austin Riley ($3,900) isn't one of them. As of submission, he'd walked twice Friday on the heels of a 3-for-4 showing Thursday with a homer. Reds' starter Vladimir Gutierrez' ($7,500) 2021 splits were all over the map, making them difficult to trust. Brave bats aren't priced down here, so a stack is a bit challenging.
Dodger bats seem to profile similarly, but they are marked up due to the ballpark, and their depth makes it hard to pick just one. Further, Rockies' starter German Marquez ($8,700) is the one Rockie arm that's proven better at home, so I don't want to go crazy. Mookie Betts ($4,400) has had success against Marquez however, and that's the differentiator when really needing one.
Value Bats
Eddie Rosario ($3,000) will return to the leadoff spot and would make for a reasonable mini-stack with Riley, but give me Travis d'Arnaud ($2,800) for a bit of a discount. He's remade his swing, and the early returns are very encouraging, barreling the ball frequently through two outings.
I'm expecting the Mets' to be a popular stack against (not officially announced) young Joan Adon, who had huge K success in limited action last season (5.1 innings). There's nothing wrong with that thought process, but I'll look to get a small piece and differentiate elsewhere. Robinson Cano ($2,200) is off to a hot start, and is priced near bottom-tier. No risk, and he'll likely be in some run producing situations.
It's anyone's guess what the Angels get from Noah Syndergaard ($9,100), and Houston has plenty of lefty bats that tee off on righties. But I'll again proceed cautiously with the unknown pitcher. Give me Michael Brantley ($2,900) who offers next to nothing from a power upside standpoint (.143 ISO) but fanned only 8.8 percent of the time against righties while posting a .399 wOBA.
Stack to Consider
Padres' vs. Diamondbacks (Zach Davies): Manny Machado ($3,800), Jake Cronenworth ($3,300), Trent Grisham ($3,100)
Davies didn't resemble a big league pitcher last season, allowing a 5.78 ERA, 5.45 FIP and only fanning 6.9 per nine innings. Getting the top third of the Padres lineup at all sub-4k prices feels right, even if the splits aren't hugely favorable. Machado's .352 wOBA and .221 ISO are serviceable, while Cronenworth comes with a nearly identical .344/.208 with major position flexibility. If you're looking for some power upside at a discount, substitute Luke Voit ($2,700) for Grisham.
