This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Happy Fourth of July! Due to the holiday, we have games all day for what is one of the best days of the year for baseball. There's an eight-game slate that kicks off at 1 pm ET, though we'll focus on the contests that kick off at 6:40 pm ET -- consisting of five matchups. That's the main slate as structured by DraftKings. It's a mediocre evening for pitching, as six of the nine pitchers that have taken the mound this season have a SIERA above 4.00. Tarik Skubal is the 10th pitcher, and he'll be set for his season debut. The standout game from a hitting environment perspective is the Blue Jays-White Sox game in Chicago, though it features two fairly talented pitchers.
Pitchers
Shohei Ohtani ($11,500) is the obvious top option available based on just about any skill we can cite. He is the only player with a strikeout rate above 30 percent and a SIERA below 3.50. The Padres have plenty of talented players in the lineup so are always dangerous, but they've been mediocre as a whole.
Lucas Giolito ($9,200) has the skills and potential to match Ohtani any given time he takes the mound, but he draws a matchup against the Blue Jays. On a day with more games, that would be a concern. Given the lack of options, we'll have to overlook that and rely on his skills (26.1 K%, 19.1 K-BB%) to deliver a strong performance.
In tournaments, Joe Musgrove ($8,000) is an intriguing pivot away from Ohtani. Ohtani is the obvious pitching choice of the day and is likely to be very popular. By rostering Musgrove, we immediately pick up a lot of leverage -- particularly because they square off against each other. Musgrove has also been solid on his own merits, posting at least 16.7 DK points in six of his last seven starts. The Angels are a tough matchup, but the combination of price and context to the rest of the slate makes Musgrove an interesting choice.
We can wrap up the pitchers with two cheap, intriguing options. Emmet Sheehan ($6,400) is an ideal cash game option. He's posted between 15.1 and 18.5 DK points in his three career starts. He hasn't shown the ability to post big ceiling performances, with his 19.0 K% serving as the primary example of why. A matchup against the Pirates also helps, giving him a strong win probability. On the other hand, JP Sears ($5,600) is an excellent tournament option. He boasts a 23.9 percent strikeout rate and has topped 15 DK points in four of his last five outings. A matchup against the Tigers isn't scary and has to give Sears one of his better chances to earn a win this season.
Top Hitters
The Dodgers are the standout option amongst batters based on matchup, as Luis Ortiz has a minuscule 13.7 percent strikeout rate. That's not a promising way to head into among the toughest matchups in the league, with Mookie Betts ($6,400) being a key driver of the Los Angeles offense.
All eyes have been on Luis Robert ($5,500) of late, and rightfully so after he mashed 11 homers in June. However, Eloy Jimenez ($4,600) has also swung the bat well of late and comes at a more palatable price. Chris Bassitt is a contact-oriented pitcher while also giving up 1.4 HR/9.
Value Bats
I wouldn't want to invest significantly in the Pirates' lineup, but Sheehan doesn't have standout skills. That leaves the door cracked open for Pittsburgh to do some damage on offense, and Henry Davis ($2,600) should have something to do with that as he consistently hits in the middle of the order.
Lucas Giolito certainly isn't an arm we need to attack, but we do want exposure to bats at Guaranteed Rate Field. Brandon Belt ($3,000) has hit third in the Jays' lineup of late but hasn't seen his price tick up as a result.
Stacks to Target
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Luis Ortiz): Mookie Betts ($6,400), Freddie Freeman ($6,100), Will Smith ($5,800)
The cost of this stack is exceptional, so it makes sense to offset that by using Sheehan in one of the pitching slots. The matchup has already been discussed to some extent, but Ortiz has only a 2.6 K-BB% and a 5.51 SIERA. He's also struggled to work consistently deep into games, and the Dodgers similarly shouldn't have any problem touching up the Pirates' bullpen. Even with the considerable cost of the stack, rostering this trio as well as Sheehan and Musgrove leaves a reasonable $3,460 per remaining roster spot.
Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Chris Bassitt): Andrew Benintendi ($3,300), Luis Robert ($5,500), Eloy Jimenez ($4,600)
It may not be expected, but Bassitt has the third-highest walk rate of all the available pitchers while also posting just a mediocre 22.1 K%. Add in a 1.4 HR/9 and positive park factors for offense, and the ingredients are there for a strong stack. The White Sox are a cheap alternative to the Dodgers, and it's a nice stack for those looking to pay up at pitcher. One example of a build includes the trio listed above paired with Giolito and Musgrove, which leaves nearly $3,900 per remaining roster spot.
