This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Thursday's nine-game slate features a dearth of reliable top-tier pitching, which may encourage players to look at two low-cost options. Those who wish to go this route should find plenty of high-priced bats in good matchups to help with roster construction.
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Pitcher
Aaron Nola, PHI at LAD ($11,100): Prospective owners will note that Nola has thrown the fifth most effective fastball this season according to RAA, while the Dodgers rank as a bottom-10 team against the heater. The right-hander has been spectacular on the road in 2018, allowing just a .254 wOBA to opposing offenses over 29.2 innings.
Cheap GPP Consideration: Shane Bieber, CLE at MIN ($7,300): Bieber will be a hard man to fade at this price. He will make his Major League debut after posting a 1.05 (!) ERA with a 31:2 K/BB ratio in 34.1 innings at Triple-A Columbus this season. Bieber's stuff isn't quite as electric as some of the other young prospects milling around in the Minor Leagues, which may force players to temper their expectations but his control should play well enough against the Twins, who will enter the contest as a bottom-10 team against right-handed pitching according to wOBA.
GPP Fade: Lance McCullers, HOU vs. BOS ($8,900): McCullers is generally a good GPP play thanks to his strikeout upside but that may not be the case against the Red Sox, who hold the second lowest strikeout rate (18.2 percent) against right-handed pitching this year. They also hold the highest wOBA against righties in the league (.356), which makes it difficult to trust McCullers as a pitcher who can exceed value at this price.
Catcher
A.J. Ellis, SD vs. MIA ($2,900): Ellis has fallen into a role on the short side of the platoon but he has been effective when his number has been called, as evidenced by the .384 wOBA and 36.4 percent hard contact rate he has logged against left-handed pitchers over 27 at-bats. Meanwhile, opposing starter Wei-Yin Chen has walked more right-handed batters than he has struck out this season and has allowed five homers to his opposite hand in just 21.1 innings.
First Base
Yonder Alonso, CLE at MIN ($4,000):Jake Odorizzi has allowed six homers to left-handed hitters over 24.1 innings while surrendering 11 walks over that span. This combination appears to be perfect for a hitter like Alonso, who has notched a .221 ISO against righty pitchers to go along with a nine percent walk rate in 131 at-bats this season.
Second Base
Jonathan Schoop, BAL vs. NYY ($3,700): Schoop began the season in a bit of a power slump but appears to have righted the ship in May, as he has logged a .165 ISO over 91 at-bats. Opposing starter Sonny Gray has kept a reverse split so far in 2018, having allowed a .533 slugging percentage and a .397 wOBA to same-handed hitters over 26 innings.
Third Base
Jose Bautista, NYM vs. CHC ($3,300): Bautista may be a journeyman trying to keep a job, but he has hit lefties well no matter where he has played in 2018, as we can see by the .333 ISO he has kept over 21 at-bats. This makes him a nice, cheap dart throw against Jose Quintana, who has surrendered a .494 slugging percentage against right-handed hitters over 39 innings.
Shortstop
Amed Rosario, NYM vs. CHC ($3,100): We will head back to Queens for our second consecutive value play against Quintana, as Rosario has managed to log a .200 ISO and a 36.7 percent hard contact rate against left-handed pitching over 40 at-bats. Quintana has struggled mightily with his fastball this season, as the pitch has registered a -7.3 RAA over 10 starts.
Outfield
Aaron Judge, NYY at BAL ($5,700): Judge is one of the most expensive offensive options on the slate but he may be worth every penny against Andrew Cashner whose fastball has registered a -6.2 this season according to RAA. Judge has crushed the heater to the tune of a 12.7 RAA while also notching a .336 ISO against right-handed pitching over 143 at-bats.
George Springer, HOU vs. BOS ($4,800):Drew Pomeranz has used his curveball to put together some memorable seasons in the past but the pitch has not been cooperating in 2018 as his bender has registered a -8.4 RAA over 32 innings. Springer has notched a 4.2 RAA against the curve this year, while also tallying a .321 ISO against lefties over 56 at-bats.
Gregory Polanco, PIT at STL ($3,800): Polanco is hitting just above the Mendoza Line this season but he is still showing good power, as evidenced by the .208 ISO he has logged against right-handed pitching over 144 at-bats. Opposing starter Jack Flaherty has been impressive in his five starts in 2018 but he has logged a 4.36 xFIP against lefties while allowing a hard contact rate of 42 percent which may indicate that he will begin to come back to earth a bit.
