This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Welcome to the first Sunday of the MLB season. It's time to get your afternoon baseball fix with DraftKings' main slate of contests covering the 10 early-afternoon games starting between 1:05 and 2:20 p.m. EDT. By dinnertime, you'll know if you're rolling in dough. Here are my recommendations.
Pitching
Hyun Jin Ryu, TOR vs. TEX ($9,200): Yes, the Rangers added a couple big pieces this offseason. They also ranked 28th in runs scored in 2021, so they have a lot of room for improvement. Ryu and his career 3.20 ERA should also get plenty of offensive support from the Blue Jays lineup in 2022.
Steven Matz, STL vs. PIT ($7,100): I feel like it's been half a decade where I've been doing my pitcher recommendations and I say to myself: "OK, who's playing the Pirates?". After all, this is a team that finished last in runs scored and slugging percentage last year. Matz enjoyed a rebound season in 2021 with the Jays by posting a 3.78 FIP.
Kris Bubic, KC vs. CLE ($6,700): Bubic produced a 3.84 ERA at home in 2021. I'm not expecting much from the Guardians' offense outside of Jose Ramirez this season. And true to form so far, Cleveland has only scored one run through two games.
Top Targets
Is there a better hitter in baseball than Juan Soto ($5,900)? Sometimes, you're happy to spend the salary for someone who's managed a career .981 OPS and hit over .300 in each of his last two seasons. Carlos Carrasco says his elbow is feeling better heading into this year, but the fact remains he struggled to a 6.04 ERA in 2020 while giving up 2.01 home runs per nine innings.
The Orioles are expected to lead off with Tyler Wells on the mound Sunday and then get bulk relief innings from Mike Baumann, which means a pitcher with a 4.11 ERA out of the bullpen last season followed by someone with a 9.90 ERA. Either way, I'm happy to have the most-promising young player in baseball in my lineup. That would be Wander Franco ($5,100), who slashed .288/.347/.463 in 70 games last year. As a switch hitter, he's also much less matchup-susceptible.
Bargain Bats
While Jorge Polanco ($4,900) doesn't walk much, that stat lacks a certain panache for DFS players. I'm focused on the fact he's a career .276 hitter who produced 33 home runs and 11 stolen bases last season. The Twins are lefty heavy, and the Mariners are starting southpaw Marco Gonzales. This way, I get a switch-hitter against a pitcher who recorded a 5.27 FIP in 2021.
After missing all of 2020, Trey Mancini ($2,900) hit .255 with 21 homers in 147 games. He's never failed to hit 20 home runs in any season, and I expect him to do it again. Corey Kluber also returned in 2021 after basically not pitching the previous year (or 2019, for that matter). He was decent with a 3.83 ERA, but decent isn't imposing - especially for a 35-year-old pitcher.
Stacks to Consider
Phillies vs. Daulton Jefferies ($5,800): Nick Castellanos ($5,500), Kyle Schwarber ($5,400), J.T. Realmuto ($4,500)
The Athletics rotation is looking barren, and Jefferies is being asked to step up. He's pitched all of 17 innings in the majors and sports a career 5.82 ERA. The Phillies' lineup is full of big bats…and bad fielders, but the latter isn't important for DFS purposes.
New addition Castellanos may not repeat his career numbers from 2021, but he's slashed .278/.329/.486 over his career and his .340 BABIP in 2021 wasn't significantly higher than his career .331 number. Schwarber is a power bat you want in your lineup when a righty is on the mound as he slugged .623 against them last season. Realmuto is one of the best-hitting catchers out there, and that's the hardest position to find legitimate hitters. In 2021, he hit 17 home runs and stole 13 bases, his second season hitting double-digits in both categories.
Blue Jays vs. Martin Perez ($5,400): Bo Bichette ($5,600), Teoscar Hernandez ($5,000), Lourdes Gurriel ($3,800)
Perez is back in Texas, but he may not exactly have fond memories having spent the first seven seasons of his career there while posting a 4.63 ERA. Last year with Boston, he posted a 4.81 FIP. Perez is a lefty, but fortunately Toronto's best bats are all righties.
Bichette is a career .302 hitter, and in his first full MLB season produced 29 homers and 25 stolen bases. Hernandez also ended up with double-digits in both of those statistical categories with 32 and 12. He's also registered a 1.090 OPS against lefties since 2020. Gurriel is a career .282 hitter with a career .492 slugging percentage, and says he tweaked his swing late last season that led to 30 RBI in September.
Cardinals vs. Bryse Wilson ($6,100): Nolan Arenado ($5,200), Tyler O'Neill ($5,100), Dylan Carlson ($4,500)
Wilson has a career 5.48 FIP and has allowed 1.70 home runs per nine innings. The Cardinals have taken advantage of this matchup to start the season, and I expect that to continue Sunday.
My Arenado recommendation is not based on him going 4-for-4 on Saturday, but more based on the fact he crushed 34 home runs and racked up 105 RBI in his first season with the Cardinals. Maybe he'll be better adjusted to not being at Coors Field all the time in 2022. O'Neill has enjoyed a strong start to the season, and last year slashed .286/.352/.560 with 34 homers and 15 stolen bases. The 23-year-old Carlson debuted as a hot prospect, and showed some of that potential in 2021. He was also better at home last year by racking up an .847 OPS.
