Closer Encounters: Spring Developments

It's crunch time. With one week left in spring training, we're at the peak of preseason closer news. There have been plenty of updates since my 2022 Closer Rankings 2.0 were posted just one week ago, and I touch on several of those developments below. Fortunately for us, more managers are being transparent about their bullpen roles and team beat writers have been cluing us into who might open 2022 as the closer in scenarios where it might not be so obvious. 

In addition, the NFBC Main Event recently kicked off, with 14 drafts in the books at the time of this writing. These are 30-round, 15-team drafts with a $1,700 entry fee that pay out the top 3 in each league, along with a $175,000 overall grand prize. Considered by many to be the gold standard of fantasy baseball contests, the release of Main Event ADP is highly anticipated. I've filtered the closer ADP from these contests below for the relief pitchers drafted in at least half of the 14 leagues.

2022 NFBC Main Event ADP through 14 Drafts

There is a clear top nine, from Josh Hader through Jordan Romano, before the first major gap occurs in closer ADP between picks 63 through 90. To illustrate the continued trend of closer inflation, Hader (ADP 22.6) has been drafted as early as the back-end of the first round(!), while Liam Hendriks (ADP 22.9) hasn't been too far behind with a minimum pick of 16th overall. On the flip side, Craig Kimbrel (ADP 230.5) has been the biggest faller in the Main Event compared to earlier drafts (ADP 148.6), as he remains with the White Sox presumably in a setup role.

I'll leave you to analyze the ADP to your liking, and instead shift the focus of this article to recent closer news that could impact your approach to certain save targets in upcoming drafts.

Giants -- Manager Gabe Kapler appeared on Tolbert & Copes on KNBR 104.5 radio last Friday and revealed Jake McGee, who led San Francisco with 31 saves last season, "would be our closer" on Opening Day. This comes after Camilo Doval closed 2021 with four wins and three saves in 14.1 scoreless innings and closed for the Giants in the playoffs. Despite a scoreless spring, Doval has some things to work on, including improving his ability to hold runners on the bases. Despite McGee opening 2022 as the Giants' closer, Kapler could still vary his usage in the role based on matchups, while performance could warrant a change if McGee starts poorly. In addition to Doval, Tyler Rogers, whose x-rays came back clean after getting hit in the leg with a line drive during a recent spring outing, is likely to remain in the mix for saves after recording 13 last season in 80 appearances (second in the league among relievers). Given the wealth of talent in San Francisco's bullpen, be careful not to put too much stock in McGee. Consider drafting him in the Taylor Rogers and Scott Barlow range among closers, but don't expect him to hold the closer role all season unless he's absolutely lights out for the Giants.

Cardinals -- Despite manager Oliver Marmol not naming a designated closer, Katie Woo of The Athletic recently noted a likely hierarchy for saves, with Giovanny Gallegos as the frontrunner. Genesis Cabrera is next in line, while Ryan Helsley and Jordan Hicks were also mentioned. Hicks, in particular, is dialing back his velocity for durability purposes after being limited to just 10 innings last season due to elbow inflammation, but still topped out at 100.7 miles per hour during his first outing of spring on March 28. He averaged 99.5 miles per hour on 18 sinkers thrown during the game, while fanning two batters and walking one in a scoreless inning.

Hicks has been rumored as a starting candidate, but given his injury history I'm not sure that makes sense. I'm targeting Hicks in my deeper draft-and-hold leagues, but keep in mind he's still ramping up after missing most of the 2021 campaign. He may see some lower-leverage work early in the season to ensure his command (5.1 BB/9 for his career) isn't suffering.

Even without a full-time closer designation, I still think Gallegos leads the Cardinals in saves this season and can reasonably reach 20-25 given his stellar performance in recent seasons.

Cubs -- After logging five saves last year, Rowan Wick has been the consensus favorite among drafters (ADP 297.8) to open 2022 as Chicago's closer. However, Sahadev Sharma who covers the Cubs for The Athletic, recently noted Mychal Givens (389.2) and David Robertson (434.3) likely have the edge for that role. It makes sense since both are far more experienced in high leverage than Wick has been in his limited 82 career innings. However, I'm still largely avoiding Chicago relievers for saves. Without a clear-cut option for ninth-inning duty after the Kimbrel trade, manager David Ross used a closer-by-committee that saw 12 pitchers record a save in 2021. He faces a similar situation this season without a Kimbrel-like closer on the roster. Not to mention, save chances may be limited for this bullpen with the Cubs not expected to contend for the playoffs. Among the trio of Cubs relievers being drafted, Robertson is an interesting dart-throw at the end of drafts since he's the cheapest by ADP and has the most experience with 137 career saves. Just limit your expectations no matter who you consider from this bullpen.

Marlins -- I recently highlighted Dylan Floro as a riser upon the release of my updated closer rankings, but since then, news was revealed that he's dealing with arm soreness and is behind schedule. He's not shut down, but Miami is being more conservative with his throwing program due to the arm soreness. With Floro's availability for Opening Day in question, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com recently reported Miami "will go closer-by-committee during high-leverage situations." Manager Don Mattingly said he'd need to "mix-and-match," at least until someone establishes themselves in the closer role. Given his closer usage in recent years, I'm not convinced he'll use a committee, but we have to consider it as a possibility.

Since the Floro news, Anthony Bender (ADP 267.3) has rocketed up draft boards as a Round 18 selection on average in the 15-team NFBC Main Event contest. Given his skills compared to other Miami relievers, it's no surprise that he has emerged as the next-in-line target for saves. To date, he's been drafted as early as pick 198 (Round 14) and may settle closer to that range if we receive confirmation that Floro won't be ready for the Marlins season opener at San Francisco on April 8. As alternative options, don't forget about Anthony Bass or Richard Bleier. Bass racked up seven saves for Toronto in the abbreviated 2020 campaign and received Miami's first two save chances last year. He wasn't successful in converting either opportunity and was promptly demoted from the closer role, but he does have experience closing games. Bleier only has four career saves on his resume, but was fourth among qualified relievers in 2021 with a 65.5 percent groundball rate. Bender is my favorite among the trio by far, but be cautious if his draft stock gets any higher, as there's still a possibility Floro is ready by Opening Day.