The NFL playoffs got underway last weekend with six exciting Wild Card matchups. It's a highly anticipated time of year for football fans, but the excitement didn't necessarily deliver, as many of the Wild Card games ended in blowouts. In fact, only one game was particularly competitive, with the Lions earning a narrow 24-23 victory over the Rams. Each of the other five contests finished with a point differential of at least 13.
Sure, weather played a role in some of the games. Injuries also factored into the results. However, the latest round of blowouts means we have to ask the question: Does the NFL have a playoff problem?
Other major sports have expanded their playoffs in the past few years. The NBA added a play-in tournament, while MLB expanded from two Wild Cards in each league to three. The NFL playoff expansion has led to more mediocre teams reaching the postseason, just as it has in other sports. But is this reason for concern?
The Expanded Format So Far
14 total teams make the playoffs. The No. 1 seed in each conference earns a bye, while the remaining 12 teams play on Wild Card weekend.
Last season, only two of the six Wild Card games would have been considered blowouts. The other four Wild Card games were actually quite competitive, all being decided by one-score margins.
However, the 2021-22 season saw similar results to this year. Only two Wild Card games that year finished with margins of seven or fewer points. Meanwhile, the Bills, Chiefs, Buccaneers and Rams all earned convincing Wild Card wins. The Bucs beat the Eagles by 16 points that year, while the other three all won by at least three touchdowns.
2020-21 was the first year of the current playoff format. The blowouts weren't quite as jaw-dropping that season, but there weren't as many close games as you'd hope to see in the playoffs, either. Three games were separated by eight or fewer points, but the other three were decided by at least two scores.
So is there a problem? Is the expanded playoff format making the first round less exciting?
The Numbers Don't Lie
Since the new 14-team playoff was implemented in 2020, there have been nine total games that have finished with a point margin of seven or less in the Wild Card round. That number is already low, but it gets even more surprising.
Four of those games came in 2022-23, which remains the only year of the new format in which the majority of Wild Card games were decided by one score. That also means the other three years with this system have seen just five total final scores that were separated by seven or less points.
However, this may not be as big of a deal as it seems. Upsets occur all of the time, both before and after the Wild Card game. One thing to remember is that the Super Bowl itself does not always produce a competitive game.
The last two Super Bowls were separated by three points or less. The two Super Bowls prior, though, saw the Buccaneers defeat the Chiefs by 22 points and the Chiefs defeat the 49ers by 11. Overall, just 21 of the 57 Super Bowls to date have been decided by seven points or fewer. In other words, 36.8 percent of Super Bowls finish within that margin, while 37.5 percent of Wild Card games under the new format fit that same category. It doesn't get much closer than that.
That implies that getting rid of the expanded playoffs wouldn't necessarily change things, and since the expanded playoffs increase fan interest from borderline teams that may not have otherwise had an opportunity to play in the postseason, they may be a good idea after all.
Final Thoughts
There is an argument to be made against expanded playoffs. After all, the numbers we shared tell an eye-opening story about an apparent lack of competitiveness in the Wild Card round. With that being said, the Super Bowl isn't going anywhere despite its similar ratio of lopsided results.
The NFL will probably continue trading a few extra non-competitive games for increased fan interest. Having fans of mediocre teams remain intrigued in the playoffs is likely worth the payoff from the league's perspective, but it will be interesting to see what the future holds for the Wild Card round. Do you think the NFL playoff format should be changed?
