Four games into the college football season, and I think it's fair to say that the Kentucky Wildcats have been the biggest surprise out of the SEC. Last year, with a highly-touted quarterback in Will Levis, Kentucky managed a 7-6 record. This year, they're already off to a 4-0 start.
So far, Kentucky has handed losses to Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Akron, and Vanderbilt. This weekend, they'll get their first major test of the year – a home date against No. 22 Florida.
Kentucky vs Florida College Football Odds, Picks, And Best Bets
Sportsbooks seem to think that this is a fair fight, with the odds essentially listed as a pick-em, giving Kentucky a narrow advantage due to playing at home. Depending on the book, you'll find Kentucky listed around -1.0 in the spread, and between -105 and -115 or so on the moneyline. Currently, FanDuel has the best odds, listing Kentucky at -118 favorites.
But is this fair?
Florida might not have an elite offense this year, scoring only 20.7 points per game through their first four matchups, but their defense is stout – particularly against the run. They allow only 3.2 yards per carry to their opponents, which puts them on a similar level against the run as Georgia (3.1 ypc allowed).
Opponents are averaging only 15.7 points per game against the Gators, anchored by pass rusher Princely Umanmielen. Through four games, Umenmielen has logged two sacks, six quarterback hits, and 10 hurries. He's a capable game-wrecker.
Kentucky quarterback Devin Leary has had a pretty good season thus far, throwing for 1,060 yards and nine touchdowns, but he is also completing only 59.3% of his passes and has thrown five interceptions. When under pressure, he has a 36.4% completion percentage, according to PFF.
Kentucky vs Florida College Football Best Bets And Picks
This game is going to come down to competition level and who gets the big plays. Umanmielen is a true force that will test the Kentucky offensive line more than they have been so far on the season, but Leary has been a quarterback relying on big plays in the passing game. It makes sense that the spread on this game is so tightly contested.
Leary going on the biggest stage that he has had so far this season with a penchant for turning the ball over and struggling against pressure is enough reason for me to give the nod to Florida to pull off the upset. I'll take plus money at +100 on the moneyline for Florida's improved front-seven to be the difference maker at.
How To Bet Kentucky vs Florida College Football Best Bets And Picks
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This article is part of our Betting Promotions series.
