This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
The schedule is shaping out for the rest of the season. After UEFA Europa League got their own week this past week, that changes going forward. In addition, the Conference League also starts next week. After this weekend, UEFA competition is full go, while the EFL Cup is still sorting out with the Round of 16 taking place at the end of October.
Sometimes, rest can be helpful for the lesser teams and you can find an edge in betting. Sometimes.
Want more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers, a weekly betting show, where Adam and Chris Owen provide six bets from six different matches. Adam also a a separate Corners & Wagers show where he talks only on corners.
Record: 7-6. Up $140 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Crystal Palace at Everton
2-3 goals scored between Everton and Crystal Palace +100
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This feels similar to recent matches in the Premier League where two somewhat struggling, mediocre teams fight to a draw. It feels like another 1-1 match which is why those odds are kind of crazy low at +400 to hit. If Everton go ahead, you know they'll give up a goal. If Crystal Palace go up a goal, well, Everton will probably allow another.
I took this bet in the Palace and Leicester City match a couple weeks ago and it lost after Palace escaped with a stoppage-time PK in a 2-2 draw. I feel the same about this in that neither offense is truly clicking and both defenses will allow at least one goal. Palace are coming off a clean sheet against Manchester United, but that was a completely different matchup. Neither one of these teams will completely dominate for 45 minutes. I'm also willing to take the over on corners because of a likely back-and-forth contest, but I want to try another goal-band bet with 1-1 and 2-1 the most likely results.
EPL Best Bets for Leicester City at Arsenal
SGP: Arsenal to beat Leicester + Arsenal O2.5 Corners 1H + No BTTS = +140
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Arsenal are surviving without Martin Odegaard and that's all you can ask as a fan after traveling to Tottenham, Atalanta and Manchester City in the same week. A home match against Bolton in Cup play allowed Mikel Arteta to rotate the majority of his squad and this matchup is one of the better ones of the season.
Leicester City have fought their way to three total points and maybe should have more, but this matchup is another animal. Even at home, they were outclassed by Tottenham and Aston Villa for the majority of those games and a trip to the Emirates probably isn't going to go their way unless Jamie Vardy gets through on a counter.
I expect Arsenal to look closer to last season's team which dominated possession and be on the front foot from the start. Steve Cooper will likely have his team sit back as much as possible with an eye on counterattacks.
The big question with this bet and taking Arsenal to get a clean sheet is if David Raya is healthy enough to start since he's been amazing to open the season.
EPL Best Bets for Tottenham Hotspur at Manchester United
SGP: 'Yes' Both teams to score + Both Man Utd/Spurs O3.5 Corners = +100
In the match of the weekend, both teams are coming off home Europa League games. Manchester United disappointed in a 1-1 draw against FC Twente on Wednesday, while Tottenham got a nice win against Qarabag despite going down a man early Thursday.
United have played better of late, but you could argue that's schedule based after beating Southampton and Barnsley by a combined 10-0 scoreline. Even so, they're at least limiting opponents more than last season, which should help in this spot. Tottenham have often controlled games this season, but they've struggled to get three points consistently and convert opportunities.
It could be a match in which both teams struggle to score again, but I think both teams make enough mistakes that there will be plenty of openings. United's allowed goal against Twente is also stuck in my mind since it included a bevy of mistakes on their part.
In the end, I'd be surprised if either team won 2-0, so I'm taking both teams to score. I also think it'll be plenty back and forth, leading to corners for both sides. I think both teams could hit more than five or six corners, so if you want more money, take that route.
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EPL Betting Picks Matchday 6
- 2-3 goals scored between Everton and Crystal Palace +100
- SGP: Arsenal to beat Leicester + Arsenal O2.5 corners 1H + No BTTS = +140
- SGP: 'Yes' Both teams to score + Both Man Utd + Spurs O3.5 Corners = +100
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2023: 45-69-2. Down $1,482 on $100 bets.
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
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