German Bundesliga Best Bets for Mainz at Bayer Leverkusen
Leverkusen moneyline up to 30th minute +110
Leverkusen are brilliant on the pitch and were clutch for my bet last week, scoring roughly 14 seconds ahead of halftime to hit first half moneyline. To use Leverkusen again this week, I'm digging deeper than the moneyline, which is sitting around -600.
I expect Leverkusen to dominate this match at home, as relegation threatened Mainz come to the BayArena. Mainz won their first match since early November last week against Augsburg but are likely looking at their 12th loss of the season against the league leaders. While Mainz's primary issue is a lack of goalscoring, they've been pretty good defensively, with only the ninth-most goals allowed in the league, not bad for a 17th-placed squad. That said, Leverkusen are a different animal at home where they've scored 10 goals over their last three matches.
It's a little risky to hope they find a goal before the half-hour mark, but if they do I expect them to make it last the rest of the match. Though Victor Boniface remains out, Leverkusen are capable of scoring through basically any player on the pitch and I like them to get a goal early and take a lead through 30 minutes. These odds are likely to fluctuate, but as long as they don't veer too far from even I like the bet.
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German Bundesliga Best Bets for Heidenheim at Union Berlin
Union Berlin and Heidenheim Under 2.5 Goals -122
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Union Berlin are finally starting to show some form after a terrible first half of the season which saw the first time Champions League qualifiers languishing near the bottom of the table. Two straight wins over Hoffenheim and Wolfsburg have pulled them up to 13th place as they host Heidenheim at the weekend.
Heidenheim lost for the first time since December last week against league-leaders Leverkusen, but they've been excellent in their debut season in the Bundesliga and, barring a collapse, are safe from relegation. It's hard to pick a winner here and while I would lean Union's -105 moneyline, I think there's significant risk of a draw leading me under 2.5 goals. During Heidenheim's unbeaten run prior to last week, three of their nine matches eclipsed 2.5 goals while only two of Union's matches since Nov. 25 have exceeded that amount. Union are one of the lowest goalscoring teams in the league and Heidenheim are middle of the pack in goals this season. I find it difficult to imagine this match turning into a goal fest.
German Bundesliga Best Bets for RB Leipzig at Bayern
RB Leipzig double chance against Bayern Munich +115
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Bayern's crisis went from bad to worse after last week's loss to Bochum and it's since been announced that manager Thomas Tuchel will step down from his post following the season. It's three straight losses in all competitions coming into this week's showdown against fifth-place Leipzig who have won two of their last three matches.
While part of me feels like this is a solid bounce-back spot for Bayern, it's difficult to back them to win even at a much depleted moneyline than normal at -150. Instead, I'm leaning toward Leipzig getting something out of this match taking a double chance bet for the away side at just over even odds. Leipzig's lone injury absence is Lukas Klostermann, but they are otherwise at full strength and have played well of late. The two teams combined for four goals in a 2-2 draw at Red Bull Arena and I think a similar match could be on the cards Saturday.
Bundesliga Betting Picks for Matchday 23
- Leverkusen moneyline up to 30th minute +110
- Union Berlin and Heidenheim under 2.5 Goals -122
- RB Leipzig double chance against Bayern Munich +115
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