This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
When you put teams on your 'do not bet' list, that usually means not to bet them. Hopefully, you heeded my warning last week when I continued to lay out bets for Aston Villa and Everton despite them being on my list. If you have a team you can't read or they just look different every match, it's often best to avoid them until things settle down.
Outside of those losses, it was a mostly positive week for me until Arsenal lost the ball numerous times and gave up two goals to Crystal Palace. Personally, I went big on the Leicester City-Manchester United match because I didn't think Harry Maguire should've started with minimal training following a calf injury. That turned into a 4-2 win for Leicester City and a nice hit on over 4.5 goals at +350. These are things I can't predict ahead of time, but once lineups are out, there are things like this that pop up to make bets a little easier to take.
Record: 35-22-3. Up $1,649 on $100 bets.
The Plays
I'm not interested in Chelsea as a massive favorite against Norwich. I can see this one going 1-0 or 4-0 and there's no value in taking Chelsea to win in a shutout at -165. Instead, I want to point out some numbers that are worth looking into involving over 2.5 goals and 'both teams to score' bets.
Everton-Watford over 2.5 goals -120
Yes on both teams to score -110
Crystal Palace-Newcastle over 2.5 goals -115
Yes on both teams to score -130
West Ham-Tottenham over 2.5 goals -125
Yes on both teams to score -165
Over 2.5 goals and yes on both teams to score aren't the same bets, but they're close. You can hit over 2.5 goals in a 3-0 win but the other bet loses. You can hit both teams to score 1-1, but the over 2.5 goals loses. Clearly, those are pretty extreme situations and given the back lines of all six teams, I'm not sure any of them will finish 3-0 and finishing 1-1 is another situation in itself.
For these three matches, I think the best route is to just take the bet with the better odds. I'll take 'Yes' on both teams to score between Everton and Watford at -110. There is risk in this one, especially since Everton are on my 'do not bet' list, but if I haven't listened to myself in the past, why start now? I think another week under Claudio Ranieri will help Watford and that'll be enough to get a goal against Everton, while their back line still has plenty of issues. I expect both teams to get quality chances en route to a few goals.
Over 2.5 goals on Crystal Palace and Newcastle (-115) seems almost too easy unless I'm missing something. Newcastle have allowed the most goals in the league, while Palace have allowed eight goals in their last four. In fact, over 2.5 goals has hit in four of the last six for Newcastle and five of the last six for Crystal Palace. Neither team has figured out their back line, but both have been able to score against most competition. Callum Wilson always has his nose around goal and Palace have been able to claw back against everyone under Patrick Vieira with Odsonne Edouard and Conor Gallagher being a big help this season.
Getting over 2.5 goals between West Ham and Tottenham at -125 seems like a steal when both teams to score is -165. I'm slightly worried West Ham's matches have been a little more defensive of late, but there have been at least three goals scored in each of Tottenham's last five in league play. They're still working out the kinks defensively and that's a problem against West Ham. On the other end of that, Tottenham have had no trouble scoring with Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min healthy, and West Ham probably haven't seen an attack this in form all season. This fixture was 2-1 last season and then 3-2 in Tottenham.
I like this spot for Wolves, but I can't recommend betting this match before the lineups come out. Leeds are a different team (a worse one) without Kalvin Phillips and it's unknown if he'll be ready to start Saturday (at least as of writing) and the same goes for Junior Firpo.
I'd rather go with what has been my bread and butter in the early season, which is Southampton's defense. If you throw out their loss at Chelsea, they've allowed one goal in their last four matches and they have similar numbers in four home matches, allowing two goals in those. A matchup against Burnley shouldn't change those thoughts unless each team's back line really falls apart. You can get Southampton to win in a shutout at +215, which seems like a reasonable place to go. The other options are under 2.5 goals at -120 or 'No' on both teams to score at +100.
I'll continue to bet Brentford at home, as they were unlucky not to get a point against Chelsea last weekend. I this one a lot, but I don't want to get too confident. Brentford have one point from their last three at home, but one loss was to Chelsea, the other was to Brighton in the final seconds and the draw was 3-3 to Liverpool. Leicester City have had defensive issues all season and gave up three to Spartak Moscow on Wednesday. While I like over 2.5 goals at -105, I think there's a chance Leicester are held scoreless. There's also a chance this has four or five goals, so over 4.5 at +550 would be fun. Instead, I'll play it safe and go Brentford draw no bet at -110. I'd be surprised if Leicester turn around and win this matchup on a short week, especially after being in Russia. You can take Brentford to win at +165, but I'll minimize the risk and get -110 in case it's a draw.
Speaking of goals, I think Manchester United and Liverpool could produce fireworks, and hopefully three goals on Wednesday helped the home team's form. Even then, I think Liverpool are in play for three goals themselves, even away from home. I'm still not sure Harry Maguire is completely healthy and they've allowed six goals since his early return. The over 2.5 goals is -155, but those aren't the best odds. Instead, Liverpool are -115 for over 1.5 goals, which seems perfect because while I think Liverpool will win (+130), this bet covers a possible 2-2 result.
