This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
Ag-Pro 300
Location: Talladega, Alabama
Course: Talladega Superspeedway
Format: Tri-Oval
Lap Length: 2.66 miles
Laps: 113
NASCAR Xfinity Series Preview
After taking center stage last weekend at Rockingham, NASCAR will head to Talladega and a superspeedway for the first time since early in the schedule. We also got a potential preview of what we're likely to see this weekend, as there were 14 cautions before Jesse Love ultimately took the checkered flag. In case there wasn't enough drama during the caution-filled race, Love was later disqualified for inappropriate modifications to his car. That gave Sammy Smith the race win after a tumultuous start to the season and locks him into a playoff spot.
Key Stats at Talladega
- Number of Races: 37
- Winners from Pole: 3
- Winners from top-five starters: 12
- Winners from top-10 starters: 19
Previous 10 Talladega Winners
Fall 2024 – Sammy Smith
Spring 2024 – Jesse Love
2023- Jeb Burton
Fall 2022- AJ Allmendinger
Spring 2022- Noah Gragson
Fall 2021 – Brandon Brown
Spring 2021- Jeb Burton
Fall 2020- Justin Haley
Spring 2020- Justin Haley
2019- Tyler Reddick
Talladega is a traditional superspeedway that is very similar to Daytona. That gives us a few data points to work with when making predictions, including the results from Daytona in February as well as the driver's track history.
Before we dive into that, it's worth looking at the macro trends at Talladega. Chevy has absolutely dominated, winning the last 11 races. We've also seen winners come from different starting positions in the field. Of the last 10 winners, three have come from a front row starting position, but four have come from eighth or ninth and an additional three 19th or worse. In other words, don't put too much stock into qualifying results.
NASCAR Xfinity Series DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Ag-Pro 300
Based on a Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 DraftKings Values
Austin Hill - $10,500
Jesse Love -$10,200
Aric Almirola-$10,000
Tier 2 DraftKings Values
Sheldon Creed - $9,500
Carson Kvapil - $9,000
Taylor Gray - $8,400
Ryan Sieg - $8,200
Tier 3 DraftKings Values
Nichlas Sanchez - $7,800
Harrison Burton - $7,700
Jeb Burton - $7,300
Tier 4 DraftKings Values
Brennan Poole -$6,900
Dean Thompson - $6,800
NASCAR Xfinity Picks for the Ag-Pro 300
Austin Hill - $10,500
Jesse Love - $10,200
Christian Eckes - $8,000
Jeb Burton- $7,300
Brennan Poole-$6,900
Dean Thompson - $6,800
The name that should immediately come to mind at a superspeedway in the Xfinity series is Austin Hill. His dominance is more pronounced at Dayona and Atlanta, but he still has a 103.3 driver rating across his last six races at Talladega. Hill's teammate Jesse Love has less of a rack record but has been just as dominant, finishing first and sixth in his two races at the superspeedway.
Rostering the two highest-priced drivers creates a need for savings. Luckily, there are a few standout options in tiers three and four. Harrison Burton didn't fit with this roster build, he's very good mid-priced driver for those going with more of an even build. He had good days at both Dayton and Atlanta to begin the season. In this build, we'll settle for Harrison's cousin. Jeb won here in 2021 and has an average finish of 9.8 with an 84.1 driver rating.
Poole and Thompson are in the bottom tier of pricing, but there's reason to expect better results. Thompson had an excellent showing at Daytona to start his season and has scored at least 40 DK points in five of his last six races and at least 37 DK points in each of the last six races. Poole has been a bit more boom or bust, but he has at least topped 60 DK points in two of his last four races.
Best Bets for Ag-Pro 300
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11:00 AM ET Saturday
Race Winner
The Favorites - Austin Hill (+260), Jesse Love (+450)
The Next Tier - Aric Almirola (+900), Sheldon Creed (+1100)
Longshots - Carson Kvapil (+1800), Taylor Gray (+2200)
We covered the reasons to like Hill and Love during the DFS portion of the article, but their dominance as well as Chevrolet's overall at the track have them rightfully locked in as the favorites.
Almirola is running a limited schedule this season, but when he's been on the track he's been plenty quick. Of his four races, he has finished inside the top three on three occasions. Creed has still yet to win a race in the Xfinity series and things haven't gone particularly well for him in his first year with Haas, but he finished third at Daytona and has an excellent 98.1 driver rating in his last five races at Talladega.
We can look to two rookie drivers for value. Both have knocked on the door of their first Xfinity victory and also showed well at Daytona in February.
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