This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
Shriners Children's 500
Location: Avondale, Ariz.
Course: Phoenix Raceway
Format: 1.0-mile oval
Laps: 312
Race Preview
With his second win of the season a week ago at Circuit of the Americas, Christopher Bell became the first driver to score back-to-back wins since Chris Buescher in 2023. However, it is Daytona 500 winner William Byron who leads the championship standings into Phoenix this week. By virtue of their wins, both Byron and Bell enter this weekend in the enviable position of being assured of a playoff spot with the freedom to devote some resources and time to preparation for the return race this fall and a potential shot at the 2025 championship, a feat Joey Logano accomplished last time out at this track to snag his third series title. For everyone else, eyes will be firmly focused on Sunday's race win to join the playoff fray. Phoenix is the first 1.0-mile oval on the calendar and it signals a return to some of the more typical NASCAR ovals, which could come as a relief to those looking to make up ground lost in the first three races. After last week, no driver has finished in the top 10 in every race so far, and teams and drivers alike will be anxious for some more consistency from week to week. Some might say the real season starts now with the first of six straight stops at intermediate and short ovals.
Key Stats at Phoenix Raceway
- Number of races: 57
- Winners from pole: 7
- Winners from top-5 starters: 23
- Winners from top-10 starters: 33
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 4
- Fastest race: 118.132 mph
Previous 10 Phoenix Winners
2024 fall - Joey Logano
2024 spring - Christopher Bell
2023 fall - Ross Chastain
2023 spring - William Byron
2022 fall - Joey Logano
2022 spring - Chase Briscoe
2021 fall - Kyle Larson
2021 spring - Martin Truex Jr.
2020 fall - Chase Elliott
2020 spring - Joey Logano
Phoenix Raceway is a uniquely shaped oval, but a 1.0-mile oval in essence. The track is generally quite flat and is wide enough that drivers can choose different grooves to find the quickest lap time or move through traffic. While track position is a vital, it isn't impossible to win when starting deeper in the field. Most wins have come from the first five rows, but three races have been won by someone starting 10th or lower since 2018. The flat track puts emphasis on mechanical grip, making fresh tires an advantage. This advantage means that deciding when to pit could make the difference. As with other short and flat tracks, teams could opt to gamble on two-tire stops to gain track position. The longer green flag runs last, the less of an advantage two tires becomes, though. Phoenix requires a balanced car that sustains maximum speeds through the middle and corner exit to maximize top speed down the straights.
RotoWire NASCAR DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Shriners Children's 500 (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Christopher Bell - $11,000
Ryan Blaney - $10,800
Joey Logano - $10,200
William Byron - $10,000
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Denny Hamlin - $9,700
Chase Elliott - $9,500
Tyler Reddick - $9,200
Chase Briscoe - $9,000
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Ross Chastain - $8,800
Kyle Busch - $8,600
Chris Buescher - $8,400
Ty Gibbs - $8,200
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Carson Hocevar - $6,900
Noah Gragson - $6,800
Cole Custer - $6,300
Riley Herbst - $5,900
NASCAR DFS Picks for the Shriners Children's 500
Ryan Blaney - $10,800
Chase Briscoe - $9,000
Ross Chastain - $8,800
Kyle Busch - $8,600
Noah Gragson - $6,800
Riley Herbst - $5,900
Ryan Blaney (DK $10,800, FD $13,500) has the best average Phoenix finish among active drivers despite having never won at the track. Through his 18 career starts, his average finish is 10.4, and he hasn't finished outside of the top five there since the spring of 2021 when he finished 10th. After a 19th-place finish a week ago at COTA, Blaney should see a quick return to form this week. Chase Briscoe (DK $9,000, FD $10,000) won this race in 2022, and this year he is part of the Joe Gibbs Racing organization that won last year with Christopher Bell. Briscoe has four top-10s from eight starts at the track. He should feel even more confident this time due to the JGR team's past Phoenix success, not to mention his own. Another driver that will be confident given past Phoenix success is Ross Chastain (DK $8,800, FD $9,500). Chastain won the fall race of 2023 and finished sixth or better in four of the last six Phoenix stops. The Trackhouse Racing driver enters the weekend 20th in the standings, but he should be expecting to leave this weekend in a better position given his past ability to grab top finishes at this track. Kyle Busch (DK $8,600, FD $8,500) also has a storied history at this circuit. He is a three-time winner at the track with 12 top-fives and 26 top-10s from 39 career starts. Busch's risk is that he hasn't finished in the top 20 here in the last three races. Given Busch's early 2025 form, fantasy players should feel relatively assured that he will buck that trend, though.
On the other side of the spectrum, Noah Gragson (DK $6,800, FD $6,500) has a significantly shorter Phoenix resume than those we've already chosen. However, Gragson finished 12th in two of his three series starts at Phoenix, and he had a win, two runner-ups, and five top-10s from eight Xfinity starts at the track. Just like Gragson, Riley Herbst (DK $5,900, FD $4,200) is an Xfinity Phoenix winner from just last fall, and he had five top-fives and seven top-10s from 11 Phoenix starts in that series. Both of these drivers have past success at Phoenix that is just waiting to translate into top finishes in the Cup Series at this track.
NASCAR Best Bets for the Shriners Children's 500
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 6:30 PM ET Friday
Race Winner - Ryan Blaney +550, Chase Briscoe +1300
Driver Matchup - Kyle Busch +125 vs Denny Hamlin
Given Ryan Blaney's Phoenix results, it is surprising that he hasn't won at the track. His average Phoenix finish is the best in the field and he currently sits second in the standings after three races. Blaney is off to a hot start to 2025 and it would be fitting to see him get his first win of the year at a track that has eluded him. A longer option also worth considering is Chase Briscoe. Unlike Blaney, Briscoe does have a Phoenix victory and he has since joined a team that excels at this particular track. With Bell as a teammate to emulate, and the past success Martin Truex Jr. had at Phoenix in the No. 19 car, Briscoe could also be a potential winner on Sunday. Along with these choices, I would advise against going with the favorite, Christopher Bell. Yes, Bell won the last two races and is the defending winner of this race, but winning back-to-back in the NASCAR Cup Series is hard right now. Winning three in a row would be even less likely, but Bell's odds as favorite don't consider that. The last time a driver won three Cup Series races in a row was Kyle Larson, who accomplished the feat two different times all the way back in 2021.
Wagerers should also look at the driver matchup between Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin this week. Not only is Busch off to a better start in 2025 than Hamlin, he also has one more Phoenix win. Hamlin has performed better at this track recently than Busch, but he hasn't exactly been setting the Phoenix pavement alight. Hamlin finished 11th in the last two Phoenix races, but he also hasn't finished any better than eighth in the last six. Busch, on the other hand, didn't finish in the top 20 in his last three Phoenix tries, but he finished eighth or better in the prior four. Given Busch's three-race start to the season, it feels like his potential for a top finish is better than Hamlin's this week.
