This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC Vegas 100 Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 100 card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
Tresean Gore (4-2-0) v. Antonio Trocoli (12-4-0)
Tresean Gore - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 4 wins
Antonio Trocoli - Height: 6'5" - Reach: 80" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: These guys are trending in opposite directions. Gore earned his first UFC win last time out, dominating on the ground until he eventually submitted his opponent. There are some concerns about his chin, but I do not see it being an issue in this fight. Trocoli received a no-contest on his Contender Series fight, lost his UFC debut, and could be looking at an early exit from the promotion. He has been dangerous outside of the promotion but against lower-level competition. I expect Gore to dominate this fight on the mat from start to finish and score well for DFS.
UFC Vegas 100 Pick: Gore
Melissa Mullins (6-1-0) v. Klaudia Sygula (6-1-0)
Melissa Mullins - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 6 wins
Klaudia Sygula - Height: 5'8" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: Sygula is a short-notice replacement heading into her UFC debut. This is a matchup that Mullins should dominate everywhere and score well for DFS. However, Sygula has a sneaky armbar, and Mullins will need to avoid putting herself into a compromised position, or she could get upset. Getting shares of both fighters in mass entry contests would be a good idea.
UFC Vegas 100 Pick: Mullins
Cortavious Romious (9-2-0) v. Gaston Bolanos (7-4-0)
Cortavious Romious - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 68" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
Gaston Bolanos - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a sneaky fight to play for DFS, as someone is likely to get finished. Romious will have a considerable edge on the mat, while Bolanos will have the edge on the feet. Romious is likely the better of the two and should get the job done, but Bolanos will have his chances.
UFC Vegas 100 Pick: Romious
Cody Stamann (21-7-1) v. Da'Mon Blackshear (14-7-1)
Cody Stamann - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 64" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 21 wins
Da'Mon Blackshear - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Stamann has lost five of his last seven fights and leaves much to be desired in the ring. He has solid wrestling but a low fight IQ. Blackshear should have the edge everywhere in this fight, and it would not be surprising to see him end this early. Blackshear will be an excellent and popular play for DFS.
UFC Vegas 100 Pick: Blackshear
Matthew Semelsberger (11-7-0) v. Charles Radtke (9-4-0)
Matthew Semelsberger - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 75" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
Charlie Radtke - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be an exciting clash of strikers. Radtke will likely be the fighter applying more pressure, while Semelsberger will be looking to outpoint him from range. Semelsberger has lost three in a row, and I expect this to be number four. He does not throw enough and is unwilling to engage in dirty boxing. Radtke could finish this early, but this fight likely scores too low for DFS without a finish.
UFC Vegas 100 Pick: Radtke
Mansur Abdul-Malik (6-0-0) v. Dusko Todorovic (12-4-0)
Mansur Abdul-Malik - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 6 wins
Dusko Todorovic - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Abdul-Malik is making his UFC debut after a Contender Series win and is one of the more exciting prospects coming up. On the other side, Todorovic has won two of his last five and has either knocked out or been knocked out in the last four. This fight will undoubtedly end within the first two rounds and is a must-have for DFS. I expect the newcomer to get this done and is a lock for DFS.
UFC Vegas 100 Pick: Abdul-Malik
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (16-8-0) v. Denise Gomes (9-3-0)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 64" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 16 wins
Denise Gomes - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 63" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Kowalkiewicz will need her ground game working, or she will likely get dominated on the feet. She rarely goes to that nowadays, so I expect Gomes to tee off on her. Gomes will be faster and stronger and should have no issue working inside the pocket. However, I would not expect a high score without a finish, making this a better play for GPP contests.
UFC Vegas 100 Pick: Gomes
Luana Pinheiro (11-3-0) v. Gillian Robertson (14-8-0)
Luana Pinheiro - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 62" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
Gillian Robertson - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 63" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Pinheiro has lost back-to-back fights since winning four in a row. I do not want to say she is a fraud, but she must be at her best to win this fight. Robertson has won four of her last five and seems to improve with each fight. Pinheiro can win this fight if she keeps it upright and avoids getting into a compromised position on the mat, though she has a solid ground game as well. Robertson will be looking for that early sub, and many DFS players will play her for that reason. She is the likely winner, but I will go out on a limb and hope Pinheiro fights at her best.
UFC Vegas 100 Pick: Pinheiro
Gerald Meerschaert (37-17-0) v. Reinier de Ridder (17-2-0)
Gerald Meerschaert - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 35 finishes in 37 wins
Reinier de Ridder - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 79" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: This will be a popular fight to target for DFS as it likely finishes within the first two rounds. I expect plenty of grappling in this fight, and the first mistake likely gets punished. Meerschaert can never be counted out and seems to relish being an underdog. Ridder is making his UFC debut but has been a champion in other promotions. He is dangerous and should be much faster than Meerschaert. Both sides should be owned for GPP contests.
UFC Vegas 100 Pick: Ridder
Ricky Turcios (12-4-0) v. Bernardo Sopaj (11-3-0)
Ricky Turcios - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 12 wins
Bernardo Sopaj - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Sopaj is favored, and rightly so. He has a more impressive resume and is a far better finisher. However, Turcios is as tough as they come and is always a solid bet to fight for your money. I see this fight going to a decision, so even in a loss, Turcios should score well. Given the low confidence in dogs on this card, it will be dog or pass for me.
UFC Vegas 100 Pick: Turcios
Neil Magny (29-12-0) v. Carlos Prates (20-6-0)
Neil Magny - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 80" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 29 wins
Carlos Prates - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 78" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: As one of the division gatekeepers, Magny draws another up-and-coming prospect. Prates has had three consecutive statement wins to start his UFC tenure, all ending by knockout. I do not see much changing here. He will have the power and speed edge, and is likely to get this done early. Magny is no slouch and would be wise to use more of his wreslting in this one to avoid the heavy blows. However, I expect Prates to be too much and to earn his fourth UFC win. Prates will be one of the more popular plays on the slate for DFS.
UFC Vegas 100 Pick: Prates
Looking to give a new sportsbook a try? Get in on the action with our best sportsbook promo codes, as well as a list of best sports betting sites and sports betting apps.
For bettors who prefer to deposit at a sportsbook via PayPal, RotoWire has an up-to-date list of all the top-rated PayPal betting sites in one place. We also list all major sportsbooks accepting credit card.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
